AFGHANISTAN: POST ELECTION MOMENTUM

S E C R E T KABUL 003500


FOR S/SRAP HOLBROOKE FROM THE AMBASSADOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2019
TAGS: PREL AF

SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: POST ELECTION MOMENTUM


1. (U) This is an action message. Please see paras 2-4.


2. (S) Immediately following the final certification of the
Afghan election November 2, we enter a short period of
waiting for any legal challenges to be raised and answered.
We expect that the next stage will be the announcement of an
inauguration date; preliminary information indicates it could
be as early as November 19. Embassy Kabul recommends that the
U.S. government work to achieve the following outcomes at the
inauguration:

-- A speech by President Karzai that constitutes his "compact
with the Afghan people" in the five inter-related areas of
sovereignty, governance, reconciliation, economic
development, and regional relations. A speech which
incorporates all key U.S. points has been drafted by the
Foreign Ministry and is currently being circulated among the
Afghan cabinet. The details of this effort is, for now, not
being shared with UNAMA and Allies, due to understandable
Afghan MFA concerns.

-- A brief meeting of attending FMs chaired by FM Spanta at
which participants would emphasize international community
expectations of the second Karzai Administration.

-- Subject to Administration decisions and timelines, an
explanation of the implementation of the Strategic Review at
a side event, presided over by President Karzai, NATO
leadership, and the senior U.S. government representative who
attends the inauguration. Having a joint announcement
increases Afghan ownership and sends the right message to
Afghanistan's neighbors and to the Taliban.


3. (S) Next, we recommend that the international community
should commit to a Foreign Minister-level conference in
Kabul, a few months after the inauguration (Jan - Feb 2010).
In contrast to yet another gathering in a foreign capital
that is ignored by the Afghan people or distorted into
reports of inflated amounts of promised international donor
funds, a conference in Kabul will allow Afghans to
communicate more directly and effectively with the
international community and in return, understand our own
concerns. The Kabul-setting is an essential backdrop to our
efforts to emphasize Afghan ownership of their destiny; the
venue will capture their people's pride, imagination, and
sense of national ownership. The conference should be
conditioned on the new Karzai government enacting several key
steps that show a real commitment to form:

-- the appointment of a clean and competent cabinet;

-- detailed planning for the implementation of elements of
the inauguration speech "compact";

-- taking action against high-ranking officials accused of
corruption; and

-- avoidance of previous missteps such as pardoning
narcotraffickers, terrorists or other serious criminals.


4. (S) Finally, in view of commitments made by European
leaders to hold a conference in the UK, we would suggest this
conference occur in the March - April timeframe. This will
have given the Karzai government time to enact reforms and
allow the international community to "multilateralize"
efforts to make the Afghanistan Compact a reality.


5. (S) Throughout this process, we will stay focused on
Karzai's choice of ministers and subnational leaders, and
work to make demonstrable gains in the area of rule of law,
such as the recent arrest of the Kandahar Border Police
Commander.
EIKENBERRY