AFGHANISTAN: POST ELECTION MOMENTUM

S E C R E T KABUL 003500 FOR S/SRAP HOLBROOKE FROM THE AMBASSADOR E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2019 TAGS: PREL AF SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN: POST ELECTION MOMENTUM ¶1. (U) This is an action message. Please see paras 2-4. ¶2. (S) Immediately following the final certification of the Afghan election November 2, we enter a short period of waiting for any legal challenges to be raised and answered. We expect that the next stage will be the announcement of an inauguration date; preliminary information indicates it could be as early as November 19. Embassy Kabul recommends that the U.S. government work to achieve the following outcomes at the inauguration: -- A speech by President Karzai that constitutes his "compact with the Afghan people" in the five inter-related areas of sovereignty, governance, reconciliation, economic development, and regional relations. A speech which incorporates all key U.S. points has been drafted by the Foreign Ministry and is currently being circulated among the Afghan cabinet. The details of this effort is, for now, not being shared with UNAMA and Allies, due to understandable Afghan MFA concerns. -- A brief meeting of attending FMs chaired by FM Spanta at which participants would emphasize international community expectations of the second Karzai Administration. -- Subject to Administration decisions and timelines, an explanation of the implementation of the Strategic Review at a side event, presided over by President Karzai, NATO leadership, and the senior U.S. government representative who attends the inauguration. Having a joint announcement increases Afghan ownership and sends the right message to Afghanistan's neighbors and to the Taliban. ¶3. (S) Next, we recommend that the international community should commit to a Foreign Minister-level conference in Kabul, a few months after the inauguration (Jan - Feb 2010). In contrast to yet another gathering in a foreign capital that is ignored by the Afghan people or distorted into reports of inflated amounts of promised international donor funds, a conference in Kabul will allow Afghans to communicate more directly and effectively with the international community and in return, understand our own concerns. The Kabul-setting is an essential backdrop to our efforts to emphasize Afghan ownership of their destiny; the venue will capture their people's pride, imagination, and sense of national ownership. The conference should be conditioned on the new Karzai government enacting several key steps that show a real commitment to form: -- the appointment of a clean and competent cabinet; -- detailed planning for the implementation of elements of the inauguration speech "compact"; -- taking action against high-ranking officials accused of corruption; and -- avoidance of previous missteps such as pardoning narcotraffickers, terrorists or other serious criminals. ¶4. (S) Finally, in view of commitments made by European leaders to hold a conference in the UK, we would suggest this conference occur in the March - April timeframe. This will have given the Karzai government time to enact reforms and allow the international community to "multilateralize" efforts to make the Afghanistan Compact a reality. ¶5. (S) Throughout this process, we will stay focused on Karzai's choice of ministers and subnational leaders, and work to make demonstrable gains in the area of rule of law, such as the recent arrest of the Kandahar Border Police Commander. EIKENBERRY