IEC ANNOUNCEMENT: KARZAI DECLARED THE WINNER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003493 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: IEC ANNOUNCEMENT: KARZAI DECLARED THE WINNER REF: KABUL 3485 Classified By: PolCounselor Annie Pforzheimer, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Summary: While the possibility of a legal challenge remains to the just announced IEC declaration of Karzai as the newly elected President of Afghanistan, only challenger Abdullah or Karzai himself could potentially force the issue to the Supreme Court. Abdullah is debating the nature of his response to the IEC announcement. His public statement may happen on November 3. The UNSYG was reportedly involved in the finalization of the IEC's announcement but he did not comment on it in his November 2 press conference in Kabul. End Summary. IEC Announcement -------------- ¶2. (U) At a 4PM press conference on November 2, the Independent Election Commission (IEC) declared Hamid Karzai to be the winner of the 2009 Presidential election and the elected President of Afghanistan. The IEC mentioned security, cost, and the national interest in their decision but the majority of their decision was based on Articles 61 and 156 of the Constitution and Article 49 of the Electoral Law. Article 61 enshrines that Karzai and Abdullah are the only two possible candidates in a run-off. Article 156 gives the IEC the right to administer and supervise all elections and to "refer to general public opinion of the people in accordance with the provisions of the law." Article 49 of the Electoral Law gives the IEC sole authority to announce and certify the results. ¶3. (U) The Embassy spoke with Scott Worden, currently one of five Commissioners with the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) and formerly the Legal Advisor to the IEC, to get his legal analysis. According to Worden, it is possible for third place candidate Ramazan Bashardost to file a petition with the Supreme Court contesting the IEC's declaration but it is unlikely that the Supreme Court would find that he has the legal standing to challenge the IEC's decision on an election he was not allowed to be part of under Article 61 of the Constitution. Abdullah and Karzai are the only two people who could conceivably have legal standing to challenge the IEC in this instance. Abdullah's Reaction -------------- ¶4. (U) Prior to the IEC announcement we spoke to Abdullah's Special Assistant Omar Ghafoorzai about whether or not Dr. Abdullah intended to mount such a legal challenge. �0A;Ghafoorzai stated repeatedly that the campaign would "leave the process where it is" and that they would "leave it up to the international community and the Afghan people to determine the credibility of the IEC and the Supreme Court and any decision they might issue." Last night, at dinner with Ambassador Eikenberry, Abdullah appeared to be relieved to have announced his decision and unlikely to return to the fray. ¶5. (C) However, following the IEC announcement, Poloff spoke again with Omar Ghafoorzai who said that Dr. Abdullah's team was working on his statement tonight, for release on November ¶3. Ghafoorzai asked poloff what our response would be if Dr. Abdullah questioned the legitimacy of the IEC's declaration in his statement. Poloff said that issues of credibility did not change the clear legal right that the IEC had to make its statement. Poloff additionally made clear that there was no interest in the international community for this process to drag on any longer and suggested that we would welcome Dr. Abdullah allowing the process to conclude, recognizing that he had withdrawn and was not going to be the next President of Afghanistan, and then focusing on his declared intention to help Afghanistan reform its institutions. Ghafoorzai responded simply that Poloff's comments were "very helpful" and ended the call promising a read-out on the Abdullah statement as soon as one was available. (Comment: Omar Ghafoorzai, an Afghan-American, has strong opinions about the need to reform the IEC and the speed at which it should be done. While Ghafoorzai appears to be part of Abdullah's inner circle, at least when Abdullah deals with Americans, his views do not necessarily reflect Abdullah's public statements. End Comment.) ¶6. (S) The Ambassador spoke late November 2 with Dr. Abdullah, who did not deny he was considering challenging the IEC ruling but told the Ambassador he "needed more time" before deciding. Ambassador Eikenberry told him that the Secretary and other world leaders would be calling Karzai in the coming hours and American leaders would wish to call Abdullah as well but could do so as long as there remained uncertainty about Abdullah's intention on this matter. KABUL 00003493 002 OF 002 UNSYG Statement -------------- ¶7. (C) Ban Ki-Moon, in his press conference on November 2, spoke primarily about the loss of his staff on October 28 and the history of the UN in Afghanistan. His conference came before the IEC's announcement of Karzai as the winner and after he met with the IEC to discuss their upcoming decision. However, he avoided making any reference to the IEC or their announcement. Moon commented on the election only to say that he had met with both Karzai and Abdullah and that Dr. Abdullah's withdrawal had not precipitated his trip to Afghanistan. He said that he was "sure that due process and the observance of the law will prevail and the Independent Electoral Commission will apply constitutionally correct procedures." Moon's spare comments may partly be born of the fact that President Karzai reportedly initially resisted his presence in Afghanistan following Abdullah's withdrawal. Karzai was reportedly concerned that Moon was coming to pressure him to make a deal with Abdullah. EIKENBERRY