ABDULLAH'S WITHDRAWAL: THE DOOR STAYS OPEN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003484 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: ABDULLAH'S WITHDRAWAL: THE DOOR STAYS OPEN REF: KABUL 3478 Classified By: PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Dr. Abdullah Abdullah made public his decision to withdraw from the Presidential race on November 1, conducting a meeting-announcement in front of about 1000 followers and a formal press conference later in the day. His tone was critical of the Karzai government, especially the Independent Electoral Commission, but he stopped short of advocating a full boycott and did not, despite repeated and direct questions on the subject, call a second Karzai Administration "illegitimate." In private, Abdullah and his team were concerned about the impact of his statements on U.S. relations but also determined to make a strong statement of protest. End summary. -------------- -------------- Making Our Points: Is this a Campaign of Ideas or Spoils? -------------- -------------- ¶2. (S) Immediately before Abdullah's morning event he spoke by phone with Ambassador Eikenberry, and explained that his statement would be more negative than a full-fledged "concession speech". Eikenberry stressed the importance of avoiding a "boycott" and by implication an attack on the process, appealing to Abdullah's ambitions as a reformer. Eikenberry asked "is this your campaign or (former President) Rabbani's - is it about change and hope, or just about jobs?" Abdullah said he was not looking for spoils but that "games" were going on between Rabbani and President Karzai's advisors. The Ambassador cautioned him, as he did in a second telephone call after Abdullah's speech but before the press conference, that his political future, relationship with the international community and reputation as a reformer would rest on his not rejecting the legitimacy of the process and leaving the door open to working with Karzai. ¶3. (U) Abdullah arrived at the Loya Jirga tent just after 11 am. Speaker of the Lower House Qanooni, Rabbani, Ahmad Wali Masood (brother of Karzai,s First Vice President) and a smattering of Northern Alliance commanders were in attendance. The tent was roughly three quarters full with around 1,000 people, mostly male. About a quarter of the crowd appeared to be well-organized groups of youths given blue flags to wave. Judging from the variety of headdress among the crowd, it appeared to be mainly Tajiks with a healthy dose of other ethnic groups represented. �00A; ¶4. (U) Following the opening prayer and a recitation of a poem in Pashtu, Abdullah spoke for approximately 50 minutes. He alternated between Dari and Pashtu with the crowd interrupting with mostly polite applause and shouts of Allah Akbar. Abdullah stressed in his speech that the current government has been illegitimate since May 21 (when its term was due to have ended, but it was extended by the Supreme Court) and spoke repeatedly about the biased nature of the IEC and Karzai,s use of government resources during the campaign. At no point did Abdullah use the word boycott. He concluded by saying his discussion was a difficult one but that he would "not participate in the November 7 election." His statement of commitment to better future for Afghanistan was greeted with very enthusiastic applause. -------------- Press Conference: Questions of Legitimacy -------------- ¶5. (C) PolOffs next went to Dr. Abdullah,s press conference and conferred with Abdullah aide Omar Ghaforzai prior to the start of the event. Ghaforzai emphasized that the Karzai had failed over the last seven years and it was time for new leadership. He recommended first an interim government without Karzai, followed by a Constitutional Loya Jirga and then an election, and strongly suggested that the U.S. pressure Karzai to accept this and step down. (Note: Abdullah, however, has never asked the United States to support an interim government. Gafoorzai's remarks are indicative of Abdullah's more extreme supporters. End note.) ¶6. (C) At the press conference, when asked by journalists if he would consider a second Karzai administration the legitimate government of Afghanistan, Abdullah avoided a direct yes or no answer. He said that was a hypothetical question and one that he would leave to legal authorities to answer; to another question he responded that legitimacy doesn,t depend upon one person,s view. Journalists rephrased and put the "in view of your announcement today, will a second Karzai administration be legitimate (or, credible)" question to Abdullah repeatedly but Abdullah side-stepped the issue each time by saying it wasn,t for him to determine legitimacy. ¶7. (U) On the question of a boycott Abdullah said that he KABUL 00003484 002 OF 002 would not encourage his supporters to boycott the run-off. He also said that he would &leave the door open8 to future discussions with Karzai. He asked his supporters to refrain from violence, and said he would remain in the full service of the nation. Abdullah also called for serving the interests of the country and of national unity. EIKENBERRY