KUNAR: PROPER MANAGEMENT OF TIMBER SALES NEEDED TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003479 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: SENV ETRD PREL PK AF SUBJECT: KUNAR: PROPER MANAGEMENT OF TIMBER SALES NEEDED TO AVERT CONFLICT REF: KABUL 2438 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The lifting of the timber sales ban in the eastern Afghan provinces of Kunar and Nuristan offers a long-awaited opportunity to reduce smuggling that funds insurgent activities and criminal networks. Such gains could be undermined, however, if mismanagement of timber sales leads to conflict between state and non-state actors. Likewise, the sales process may fuel a rush to cut remaining stands, further damaging already degraded forests and watersheds and depriving Kunar and Nuristan of potential jobs. Until a Forest Law is passed and forest and watershed management is staffed and resourced, illicit timber harvesting will continue, to the detriment of security and sustainability. PRT Kunar will attempt to monitor illicit sales activity and will consult with Kunar Governor Wahidi on how best to manage future sales. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Ministry of Finance (MoF) Chief of Staff Mohammad Shah Safi informed Embassy Kabul on October 5 that MoF will allow sale of illicitly-cut timber stockpiles impounded and registered in Kunar and Nuristan provincial timber yards. This follows a September 28 Cabinet decision to lift the sale ban and designate the MoF as the lead to determine procedures for the sale. The September 28 Cabinet decision also created a commission that includes the Ministries of Agriculture, Interior, and Environmental Protection, as well as Finance, to a draft plan within a month for the protection of remaining forests. Additionally, the Forest Law, in draft since 2007, was recently submitted to Parliament; its adoption and implementation should provide a long-term framework for a sustainable community-based forest management process, an important step toward conserving and developing these resources. ¶3. (SBU) Kunar,s Line Director for Finance, Abdul Ghafoor, explained that the sale process will include the creation of an MoF-run commission to oversee the sales in Kunar. Ghafoor noted that the commission will be comprised of Afghan government officials from Kabul, but will operate out of Kunar at the start of the process. Note: Ghafoor, along with Kunar Governor Wahidi, had submitted a timber sale proposal to MoF in late August, following on a timber shura hosted by Wahidi in Kunar on July 28 (reftel). The governor's plan appears to have formed a basis for the initial MoF proposal. Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) Kunar has not received any indications that the Cabinet decision has been publicly announced. End Note. ¶4. (SBU) The MoF plan does not include Kunar Governor Wahidi,s proposed timber sale cap, however. A cap would limit the sale to a specified amount of timber stockpiles and help deter illegal logging efforts to add to existing stockpiles. Current estimates of the timber stockpiles in Kunar and Nuristan range from 5 to 8 million cubic board feet. ¶5. (SBU) Monitoring the stockpiles to ensure that additional logs are not added will be a significant challenge. MoF,s Mohammad Shah Safi indicated that the Afghan National Police (ANP) will likely lead any monitoring efforts and noted that &new cut wood will look different from the stored wood, so the police will be able to stop it.8 However, Kunar Deputy Chief of Police Brigadier General Saboor indicated on October 7 that the ANP did not expect to increase its checkpoints to monitor illegal logging activity or activities at Asadabad,s timber yard. In Kunar, the ANP are widely held to be key facilitators of illegal smuggling in the province. ¶6. (SBU) Since the ban was lifted on October 5, the Kunar Chamber of Commerce reports that there has been no out-of-the-ordinary sales activity at the Asadabad timber yard. The yard generally has limited legal sales and a regular stream of illegal sales under cover of darkness. During the ban, Kunaris could buy wood legally on a case-by-case basis, approved by the Kunar governor, as long as any finished products were only sold in Kunar. PRT Kunar is mobilizing resources to begin an informal night time watch on the timber yards within the Asadabad area to monitor any infusions of new timber. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Today Kunar and Nuristan retain only 35-40 percent of their native forest cover. The last accurate assessment in Kunar dates from the 1970s, and a professional assessment of the remaining resources (as well as of the timber stockpiles) is necessary for resource management planning. Without a timber sales cap and adequate KABUL 00003479 002 OF 002 monitoring, we anticipate additional illicit cutting to take advantage of the stockpile sales, along with possible conflict between state and non-state actors vying to take advantage of this opportunity to "launder" their timber. At a minimum, well-publicized regular physical inventory reconciliations of the timber yards might help deter local officials and others from adding to the stockpiles. The PRT will meet with Governor Wahidi to hear his assessment of how to manage this dwindling resource. Beyond environmental concerns, we will also be closely watching signs of illicit timber money finding its way to insurgents. Since the timber trade was originally banned in part because of the corruption it was spawning (reportedly reaching to the level of a previous governor),we will remain alert to the possible negative impact of the new policy on good governance in Kunar. ¶8. (U) This message was drafted jointly by PRT Kunar and Embassy Kabul. EIKENBERRY