SCENESETTER FOR NOVEMBER 2-3 VISIT TO WASHINGTON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003462 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS AF CAN SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR NOVEMBER 2-3 VISIT TO WASHINGTON OF CANADIAN AMBASSADOR TO AFGHANISTAN WILLIAM R. CROSBIE REF: A. (A) KABUL 3068 ¶B. (B) KABUL 3045 ¶C. (C) KABUL 2292 ¶D. (D) KABUL 2335 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Since 2002, Canadian forces have engaged in the strategically important southern Afghan province of Kandahar along side the United States. On August 21, 2009, both countries signed "The Canada-U.S. Kandahar Coordination Plan," which outlines the joint priorities and projects within Kandahar and mechanisms for accomplishment. The Plan lays out Canada's six priorities within Kandahar in six areas: security; basic services; humanitarian assistance; the Afghanistan/Pakistan border; national institutions and reconciliation. In addition, Canada has three signature projects to bolster these priorities: Dahla dam and irrigation systems; polio eradication; and education. The August 2009 deployment of the 5/2 Stryker Brigade Combat Team to Kandahar allowed the Canadian Battle Group to reduce its area of operational responsibility and withdraw forces from the more conflict-prone districts. Canada has welcomed the increased U.S. civilian and military presence in Kandahar, but is also concerned that the U.S. not supplant Canada's leadership in the province. End Summary. BACKGROUND TO UNITY OF EFFORT -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On August 21, the lead senior civilian and military representatives from Canada and the United States in Kandahar signed "The Canada-U.S. Kandahar Coordination Plan," outlining the unified effort of both countries in the southern province of Kandahar. The KCP is intended to ensure that Canada and the U.S. remain equal partners and to forestall marginalization of Canada as the U.S. commitment increases. Within the Plan, the overarching purpose of Canadian and U.S. efforts is to strengthen Afghan ownership of Kandahar's stabilization. The partnership will focus on securing the population and creating an environment that enables a sustainable, licit agriculture-based economy and an increasingly effective, credible and representative provincial and local government. In order to achieve the unified agenda, the KCP created a Kandahar Senior Civilian Team (KSCT),composed of the senior civilian and military representatives of Canada and the U.S. within southern Afghanistan, in order to provide strategic guidance and coordination across the range of Canadian and U.S. activities in Kandahar. CURRENT CANADIAN PRIORITIES AND PROJECTS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In 2008, the Canadian Parliament passed a motion to extend Canada's military presence in Kandahar to July 2011. Subsequently, Canada announced its six top priorities for its engagement in Afghanistan (similar to those of the USG) and three signature projects. As noted in the Plan, these six priorities are: -- Building the security capacity of the ANSF and supporting complementary efforts in areas of justice and corrections; -- Strengthening the Kandahar Government's capacity to deliver basic services and to promote job-oriented economic growth; -- Providing humanitarian assistance in keeping with humanitarian principles and in support of extremely vulnerable people, including refugees, internally displaced persons, and returnees; -- Enhancing the management and security of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border; -- Building Afghan institutions that are central to Canada,s Kandahar priorities and support democratic processes such as elections; and -- Contributing to the Afghan-led political reconciliation efforts aimed at weakening the insurgency and fostering a sustainable peace. ¶4. (SBU) To fulfill its six top priorities outlined in the KCP, Canada has undertaken to implement three signature projects for Kandahar. -- Dahla Dam and Irrigation System ) Canada has pledged approximately 50 million Canadian Dollars (CAD) (approximately 47.5 million USD) to provide necessary repairs to the Dahla dam in order to provide a secure irrigation water supply to the majority of the Kandahari population. In turn, this will generate 10,000 seasonal jobs and will foster KABUL 00003462 002 OF 003 provincial agriculture. -- Polio Eradication ) Canada will invest as much as 60 million CAD (approximately 57 million USD) for polio eradication, working closely with GIRoA and the international community. The project aims to immunize an estimated seven million Afghan children, including 350,000 in Kandahar. -- Education ) To build upon its success in rolling out the GIRoA's national education strategy in Kandahar, Canada has pledged up to 12 million CAD (approximately 11.4 million USD) to build, expand or repair fifty schools in key districts and to build the capacity of the Ministry of Education to deliver quality educational services to the province. SHIFTING ROLES IN STRONG PARTNERSHIP -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The August 2009 deployment of the 5/2 Stryker Brigade Combat Team to Kandahar allowed the Canadian Battle Group to reduce its area of operational responsibility and withdraw forces from the more conflict-prone districts (Reftel D). Canada has welcomed the increased U.S. civilian and military presence in Kandahar, but is also concerned that the U.S. not supplant Canada,s leadership role in the province, particularly relating to assisting in the development of Afghan governance. ¶6. (SBU) Some U.S. forces come under direct Canadian command, including the 1-12 infantry Battalion and the 97th MPs. These forces recently assumed primary responsibility for security in Kandahar City. The 4/82 Airborne Brigade also adds significant forces to the ANSF advisory role in Kandahar. ¶7. (SBU) Despite a generally good partnership, differences in U.S. and Canadian approaches have had an effect on operations and objectives, particularly regarding distribution and employment of resources. These difference, however, are within the bounds of normal friction between coalition partners: -- The Stryker Brigade's main effort has been in Arghandab District, a critical epicenter of the insurgency at the northern gate of Kandahar City. However, Canada shifted its stabilization resources from Arghandab to its own focus districts south of the city. This has required rapid and unanticipated adjustments on both the U.S. civilian and military sides to ensure a successful transition from clearing operations to early stabilization. We have made one high priority request ) that Canada modify its intent to commence the Dahla Dam project only in its priority districts, and instead begin working secure areas of Arghandab simultaneously when initial work begins in November ¶2009. The Representative of Canada in Kandahar (RoCK) has agreed to take this under consideration. -- Canada has stated its commitment to continue development work following its reduction in forces in 2011. Nevertheless, its phased project planning calls for future reductions in funding. As a matter of prudence, the U.S. will need to look at: 1) alternate funding for the Dahla Dam project, which has a firm allocation of $60m by Canada for its first phase, as overruns are probable and the cost of a second phase is estimated to be $250m; 2) funding for construction of the new $20m Weesh border crossing facility near Spin Boldak; 3) future leadership of KPRT; and 4) assignment of security responsibilities in light of the projected withdrawal of Canadian forces in 2011. POSSIBLE TOPICS FROM THE AMBASSADOR -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Canadian Embassy in Kabul and Task Force Kandahar have indicated that Ambassador Crosbie may raise the following topics during his visit: -- Elections: During the first round of elections, Canada's focus was primarily on security around Kandahar and the polling stations. Judging that it was primarily corruption and not security that prevented a successful election, Canada plans to shift its focus for the November 7 second-round elections from security to an election observation mission. Using civilian support from TF Kandahar and KPRT, Canada plans to deploy observers to the symbolic and larger city centers around the province. The Canadians would like to see KABUL 00003462 003 OF 003 a joint U.S./Canada observation mission, and the Ambassador is likely to ask about the U.S. position on such a mission. -- Governance: Within the framework of governance in Kandahar, the Canadian mission sees two main areas for improvement. First, the Canadians plan to continue their work with the line ministries at the federal level to better connect and coordinate with the provincial level for the purpose of timely and effective development. Second, with the likely reelection of President Karzai, Kandahar Governor Weesa will likely be replaced. The KPRT plans to seek a strong, lasting relationship with Weesa,s replacement to further the current policies and projects in place within the province. -- Ahmed Wali Karzai: Given his suspected ties to narco-trafficking (and possible militant activities),the Canadians are looking for a way forward in their dealings with Ahmed Wali Karzai (AWK),President Karzai's brother and Kandahar Provincial Council Chairman. The Canadians believe the ideal situation would be to have him removed from power, but given his status as a strong power player within Kandahar, the Canadian Ambassador is likely to ask for the U.S. to lead on the issue. -- Reintegration: The Canadian Mission feels strongly that reintegration of militants willing to lay down weapons and reenter society by respecting the writ of the government should be an Afghan-led process. The Canadians believe this is the only way for a successful reintegration, and they hope to further solidify this notion with the United States in Kandahar. -- COIN Efforts: Reportedly, the Canadian mission feels that it was unfairly lumped into a group of ISAF countries not fully participating in the COIN process in the McChrystal report. The Ambassador will likely reinforce Canada,s commitment to the COIN effort in Afghanistan. Canada plans to increase its civilian police mentoring efforts and expanding its "key village approach" to bolster the areas around Kandahar City. From Canada's standpoint, the work between the Canadian and U.S. militaries is seamless, and this same notion goes for every area where Canadian and American personnel are co-located. -- Detainees: The Canadian mission views the "96-hour Rule" for the holding of detainees as a guideline and not a "hard and fast" rule, noting that the Canadian Government will hold any individual believed to be a viable threat until a thorough investigation can be conducted, regardless of whether this takes longer than 96 hours. The Canadians are looking for a coordinated approach to the detainee issue and hope to work with the U.K. and the U.S. on developing a comprehensive joint plan in this area. ¶9. (U) This message was drafted by the Regional Platform at Regional Command-South and Embassy Kabul. EIKENBERRY