AFGHAN ELECTIONS: MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT SECOND ROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003429

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: MIXED FEELINGS ABOUT SECOND ROUND

Classified By: IPA Coordinator Scott F. Kilner for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d)


1. (SBU) Summary: The current mood in the provinces
regarding the second round of the presidential election
varies widely throughout Afghanistan. Government officials
and members of the public, mostly supporters of President
Karzai, express fatigue with this protracted political
process, and question why their first round votes "did not
count." Many say they believe foreign interference is "to
blame" for the result, while others say a second round could
is an unnecessary waste of money that could be better used to
help the people of Afghanistan. Tension and the possibility
of violence in Abdullah areas have subsided, at least for the
moment, and some voters have even expressed enthusiasm for a
possible come-from-behind Abdullah victory.


2. (SBU) In more educated areas, such as Nangarhar and
Panjshir, residents express satisfaction that Karzai followed
the constitution and accepted that he did not cross the 50
percent threshold required for outright victory in the
first-round. In rural areas of the South and East, this
nuance seems to be lost. There is universal concern that the
high levels of fraud of August 20 would be repeated.


3. (SBU) This message is based upon reports from Mission
civilian field representatives provided over the last few
days. End summary.

The South: "Why didn't my vote count the first time?"
--------------


4. (SBU) Throughout the south, Pashtuns seem to share a
profound apathy about the second round, and many say they
expect a significantly lower turnout. Even the recent
political gymnastics in Kabul about IEC methodology have been
greeted locally with yawns, as most people see a Karzai win
as inevitable and any delay a sign of foreign interference.
This apathy, combined with the local planting season (of
licit crops, such as wheat),could lead to exceptionally
lower turnout unless Karzai's political machine is able to
mobilize his supporters.

5 (SBU) Tribal elders in the Sirkaduz region of Nawa District
(Helmand) exemplified the viewpoint of Pashtuns throughout
southern Afghanistan, expressing displeasure at the runoff
and at what they see as the rest of the world's pressuring
Afghanistan, perhaps as a method of engineering an Abdullah
victory. Their August 20 votes, they say, were valid and
should have counted, and a Karzai victory is the only outcome
they will accept as legitimate.


6. (C) There are signs that Karzai appears to understand that
the election in Helmand is not about winning voters from
Abdullah, but purely about turnout. PRT Helmand has heard
credible reports that Karzai is targeting the Hazara
community - which tends to vote as a block - as a priority
for the second round campaign. Amir Mohamed Akhunzada,
brother of former Helmand governor Sher Mohamed Akhunzada,
has arrived in Lashkar Gah to turn out the vote for Karzai,
and reports indicate he brought USD700,000 - twice the sum
Karzai spent in round one - to make it happen.


7. (SBU) Districts in the South where coalition forces have
engaged in counterinsurgency operations since August 20 may
provide an opportunity to deter fraud. Most notably, Nawa
district was the site of the largest ballot stuffing
operation on August 20. The PRT anticipates increased
transparency there, but does not expect the drop in fraud to
be proportional to the increase in security.

The East: Mixed Reactions Among Karzai Supporters
--------------


8. (SBU) Reaction to the runoff in pro-Karzai eastern
provinces of Afghanistan was more mixed, and there appears to
be a stronger understanding of the constitutional
requirements that lead to a runoff in some areas. In other
provinces, such as Khost, the cynicism of the South is
repeated. Elsewhere, grumbling about international
interference quickly transformed to "get out the vote"
messages among governors as soon as Karzai announced the
second round. In the more mountainous areas, the onset of
winter weather could well be the biggest deterrent to voting.


9. (SBU) Paktya Governor Hamdard was pleased that the runoff
would be held, stating that it would clarify the political
situation and remove distrust of the government among the
population. He did not believe that a national coalition
government would work because of the structure of the Afghan

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government. He thought that, without a parliamentary system
with a president and prime minister, a coalition government
would move Afghanistan back seven years and benefit neither
the Afghan public nor the international community.


10. (SBU) Now that the runoff has been announced, Ghazni
governor Usmani, an ardent Karzai supporter, also supports
the second round. His attitude has shifted markedly: before
Karzai announced the second round, Usmani claimed that the
fraud investigation was a "foreign plot" and he adamantly
opposed a runoff. PRT Ghazni notes that it is unclear
whether the local population shares the governor's newfound
enthusiasm for the second round. (Worth remembering is that
Bashardost won an overwhelming 66 percent of the Ghazni vote,
leaving Karzai with a 24 percent second.)


11. (SBU) Nangarhar, home of outspoken governor Gul Agha
Sherzai, also highlights a shift in attitude in Pashtun areas
since the announcement of a runoff. The Pasthun majority
that was threatening to boycott a potential runoff is now
declaring its intent to participate. At an October 22
Jalalabad conference of 500 tribal elders from four eastern
provinces, several elders complained it was unfair that
Karzai had not won outright, but nevertheless called on their
supporters to vote in even larger numbers on November 7. The
governors of Nangarhar and Laghman are making impassioned
please to voters to go to the polls.


12. (C) In the northern province of Faryab, which Karzai
won, a discussion with party leaders of Jumbesh (Uzbek) and
Jamiat (Tajik),revealed that ethnic considerations are at
the center of their frustration with the runoff. Jumbesh
leaders say they fear a coalition government because it would
freeze out Uzbeks in favor of Tajiks and Pashtuns, and even
suggested that Karzai may have reached a deal that puts
Dostum's support for Karzai at risk.

Abdullah Supporters Content for the Moment
--------------


13. (SBU) In eastern Parwan province, which went for
Abdullah in the first round, Tajik Governor Takwa has
enthusiastically imagined a come-from-behind victory for
Abdullah. Although the expectation of an Abdullah victory is
limited among voters, it is clear that the announcement of
the second round reduced the threat that Abdullah supporters
will take to the streets in provinces that support him.
However, a disputed second-round result, especially if
expectations of an Abdullah victory are too high, could
revive that threat.


14. (SBU) Balkh province voted overwhelmingly for Abdullah,
for whom Governor Atta remains an outspoken supporter. Since
August 20, Atta has decried the high level of fraud and
alleged that Abdullah supporters were taking up arms and
preparing to protest if Karzai had been declared the first
round victor. PRT Balkh has interviewed a wide variety of
Afghans in Mazar-e Sharif, including prominent local
businessmen, Governor Atta's political advisor, the
provincial head of the Wehdat-e Islami party, the chief of
police of Balkh Province, and a dozen officials from Khulm
District. While some expressed concern about the rise in
security incidents in the north over the past few months,
they have voiced no particular concern that the runoff would
raise ethnic or other tensions. In fact, the PRT detects a
sense of relief over the resolution of the first round and
that President Karzai announced his acceptance to hold a
second round. (The exception to this was Sayedi, who said it
was unfortunate that the first round of voting was all for
naught - that many had taken great risks to vote the first
time.)


15. (SBU) Atta political advisor (and Abdullah supporter)
Yonusi was upbeat about the opportunity the runoff presents
for the Abdullah camp. Others seemed wary of a fraud-ridden
and still-ongoing election process. PRT contacts in Balkh
universally expect that second-round turnout will be lower
than turnout in the first round.

Economic Optimism Returns
--------------


16. (SBU) Despite the weariness from the electoral process,
there is widespread optimism throughout the North that a
final resolution of the presidential race will benefit the
local economy in many areas. Many Afghans have observed a
downturn in economic activity over the last few months, with
both investors and consumers scaling back their transactions
due to uncertainty about the elections.


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Comment:
--------------


17. (C) Afghans across the country clearly understand that
the first round was marred by fraud and seem genuinely to
want clean elections. Several highlighted the importance of
having a "transparent" process during the second round.
Nevertheless, there is little optimism that the second round
will be a model of transparency and of legitimacy. Many,
while pointing out the role of the international community in
bringing about the runoff, also say the international
community will have to play a strong role in minimizing the
opportunities for fraud. Strongly implied is a lack of
confidence in the Afghan government to manage the election
process independently.


18. (C) The election process itself will likely to do little
to strengthen local confidence in the central government. If
the second round is perceived to be as fraud-ridden as the
first, it will likely further diminish confidence in the
central government. Karzai's political machine is already
churning to shore up large voting blocks to overcome apathy
among large swaths of the Pashtun population. The relative
abilities of both candidates to get out the vote will likely
be a key determinant in the election's outcome. End Comment.


19. (U) First Round Presidential Candidate Winners in each
Province:
(Source: IEC Web Site:
http://www.iec.org.af/results/resultsProvince )

Totals:
Karzai won 21 provinces
Abdullah won 11 provinces
Bashardost won 2 provinces

By Province (percentage of vote):

- Badakhshan = Abdullah (50.0); Karzai (34.2)
- Badghis = Abdullah (63.7); Karzai (26.3)
- Baghlan = Abdullah (56.8); Karzai (29.6)
- Balkh = Abdullah (44.2); Karzai (39.6)
- Bamyan = Karzai (39.1); Bashardost (38.8); Abdullah (6.6)
- Day Kundi = Bashardost (60.9); Karzai (29.1); Abdullah (6.6)
- Farah = Karzai (57.1); Abdullah (22.0)
- Faryab = Karzai (59.9); Abdullah (29.7)
- Ghazni = Bashardost (61.1); Karzai (24.4); Abdullah (9.9)
- Ghor = Abdullah (46.7); Karzai (35.7)
- Herat = Karzai (44.5); Abdullah (41.7)
- Helmand = Karzai (72.5); Abdullah (5.3)
- Jowzjan = Karzai (58.0); Abdullah (25.3)
- Kabul = Karzai (48.8); Abdullah (29.3)
- Kapisa = Abdullah (69.1); Karzai (22.9)
- Khost = Karzai (69.1); Abdullah (6.5)
- Kandahar = Karzai (73.8); Abdullah (9.1)
- Konar = Karzai (81.1); Abdullah (7.0)
- Kunduz = Abdullah (54.6); Karzai (31.8)
- Laghman = Karzai (74.8); Abdullah (13.8)
- Logar = Karzai (42.7); Abdullah (17.6)
- Nangarhar = Karzai (75.2); Abdullah (6.0)
- Nimroz = Karzai (72.5); Abdullah (6.0)
- Nuristan = Karzai (46.2); Abdullah (41.2)
- Paktia = Karzai (71.6); Abdullah (4.8)
- Paktika = Karzai (53.5); Abdullah (23.6)
- Panjshir = Abdullah (68.1); Karzai (29.1)
- Parwan = Abdullah (63.3); Karzai (27.2)
- Samangan = Abdullah (43.5); Karzai (42.5)
- Sar-e Pol = Karzai (46.7); Abdullah (33.0)
- Takhar = Abdullah (51.8); Karzai (36.4)
- Uruzgan = Karzai (60.0); Abdullah (8.7)
- Wardak = Karzai (55.1); Abdullah (8.1)
- Zabul = Karzai (62.0); Abdullah (12.7)
EIKENBERRY