INTERIOR MINISTRY ORGANIZES FOR POLICE GROWTH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003262 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS AF SUBJECT: INTERIOR MINISTRY ORGANIZES FOR POLICE GROWTH ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 1 Interior Minister Hanif Atmar launched a series of working groups to plan for Afghan National Police (ANP) growth, and told International Police Coordination Board (IPCB) reps that: -- Police growth and reform are his post-election priorities; --The Ministry is not committed in advance to a ceiling of 160,000 police or any other figure ) it is simply using the prospect of growth to 160,000 by end 2013 as a planning guide; (NOTE: This figure derives from Combined Security Transition Command Afghanistan's (CSTC-A) planning target.) -- He envisions a five-pillar police structure with different types of police for different functions; -- Afghanistan,s ability to pay for its police force depends on domestic revenue growth, but more and better police can help local authorities to improve revenue collection. The Ministry,s new working groups will plan the mechanics of growth beyond the statutory ceiling of 96,800 police, handling critical issues such as recruitment, attrition, training, and logistics that can limit the extent and slow the pace of growth. Combined Security Transition Command-Afghanistan (CSTC-A) and the European Union Police Mission (EUPOL) will support the working groups with technical advice. The Ministry of the Interior (MOI) also invites working-level participation from donor embassies. The Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan,s (LOTFA) staff will lead a separate financial working group with Ministry of Finance and MOI participation to examine the costs of ANP growth to the Afghan Government. END SUMMARY. PLANNING FOR GROWTH BEYOND 96,800 POLICE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Minister Atmar told donor representatives that his post-election goal is to accelerate the growth of the police from their current authorized strength of 96,800, while &aggressively8 reforming his force and Ministry. In response to European Community and Dutch concerns, Atmar denied that he was committed in advance to any particular growth figure (such as 160,000). MOI needed to choose a number for planning purposes, but Atmar suggested it could as easily be 175,000. The MOI working groups will premise their planning on a goal of growing to 160,000 police by the end of 2013, reflecting CSTC-A,s planning target. ¶3. (SBU) The ANP growth working groups are responsible for planning for the number and pace of police growth. They will plan for the distribution of new forces across different police categories (uniformed police, border police, civil order police, specialized police),and determine the tasks of each force. They will also determine training, personnel, logistics and facilities needs for growth, and, propose solutions to the problems of recruitment and retention that retard force growth. The working group structure consists of: an Executive Steering Group chaired by Interior Minister Hanif Atmar, which includes the Deputy Ministers for Security, and Strategy and Policy, and the heads of CSTC-A and EUPOL; and, an Executive Working Group (EWG) led by First Deputy Minister for Security Monir Mangal, which consists of MOI Department heads, CSTC-A staff section representatives and donor embassy representatives. The EWG will coordinate the work of four working groups and twelve sub-working groups. ¶4. (SBU) Led by MOI department heads, the four working groups cover broad areas: Strategy and Policy; Security; Counter Narcotics; and Administration and Support. The appropriate CSTC-A staff sections, EUPOL and the IPCB,s Senior Police Advisory Group will support each working group and sub-working group with planning advice and staff. Embassy Kabul,s Pol-Mil and INL-Narcotics Affairs Sections will attend meetings of the Executive Working Group, and the working groups on Strategy and Policy, and Counter Narcotics. An INL Dyncorps contract police mentor with expertise in training will attend the sub-working group on training and education. (AND FIGURING OUT HOW TO PAY FOR IT -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The Law and Order Trust Fund for Afghanistan (LOTFA) covers $258 million and CSTC-A $115 million of MOI,s $418 million annual budget, while the Afghan treasury picks up the tab for $45 million in administrative and support KABUL 00003262 002 OF 002 staff costs. (NOTE: Japan, LOTFA's largest donor this year, accounts for $124.8 million of the fund's budget. Japan has donated a total of $144.6 million since 2006, making it the third largest donor overall, after the US and European Commission.) In March, the MOI is scheduled to take over payment of the $71.8 million annual food allowance for 82,000 ANP from LOTFA. Afghanistan spends 26% of its annual budget on the security sector, a number fixed by the Afghanistan Compact. Consequently, Police growth will require revenue growth, even if donors pay most costs. Minister Atmar argued that effective police support for local authorities could enhance revenue collection ) police growth would yield revenue growth. (NOTE: The Minister did not elaborate on this claim, and he did not suggest that any "revenue growth" resulting from improved security would fully cover increased costs.) Atmar supported the idea that LOTFA would lead a separate working group to plan for the financial implications of ANP growth. That group will bring MOI and Ministry of Finance together with police donors for joint financial planning. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Minister Atmar is eager to grow the ANP as fast as possible, but his working groups will have to contend with the hard realities -- competition for recruits from a growing army and well-paid private security companies; annual attrition of 25%; finite training capacity; and funding -- that will dictate the pace of police growth. The ANP growth working groups will also test the planning capacity of the MOI,s four-month old Department of Strategy and Policy. This is its first major planning exercise, and it will likely require significant advice and support from CSTC-A and EUPOL to keep the planning up to speed with the security requirements necessitating ANP growth. END COMMENT. EIKENBERRY