AFGHAN MINISTER - AND FORMER MUJAHID - SLAMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 003182 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON AF SUBJECT: AFGHAN MINISTER - AND FORMER MUJAHID - SLAMS GOVERNMENT HANDLING OF TALIBAN AND SECURITY SITUATION Classified By: CDDEA Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne, Reason 1.4 (b) and (d ) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Afghan Government, army, and police need to change their tactics and the Afghan Government should identify and reach out to leaders who can mobilize the population against the Taliban, Mohammed Ismail Khan, Afghan Minister of Water and Energy told Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs Ambassador Wayne September ¶29. A former Mujahidin Commander in Herat and western Afghanistan, Khan used the meeting, which as scheduled to push on needed electricity sector reforms, to talk for almost an hour about what he described as the deteriorating security situation. Khan had been the target of an assassination attempt September 27 in Herat and had subsequently publically criticized the current government practices. Arguing there is a six month window within which to change strategies and mobilize the population against the Taliban, Khan suggested the Afghan Government and NATO form a commission to examine security trends and pick governors, police chiefs, and other local officials who can energize the public to fight and resist the Taliban. While Khan,s suggested solution of using locally mobilized forces to fight the Taliban has a number of serious problems, his critique is based on the solid premise that the government would benefit greatly by mobilizing local populations. Khan,s points on the electricity and water sectors are reported septel. End summary. ¶2. (C) Afghan Water and Energy Minister al-Haj Mohammad Ismail Khan, in a meeting September 29 with Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs Ambassador Wayne, USAID Director Frej, and EmbOffs, spoke for nearly an hour about the current security situation in Afghanistan. Pulling from his experience as a Mujahidin leader against the Soviets and especially later in fighting the Taliban, Khan stated changes by the Afghan Government and the ISAF allies in prosecuting the fight against the Taliban are essential. A Deteriorating Security Situation -------------- ¶3. (C) Khan, who was the target of a September 27 assassination attempt when visiting Herat, an attack in which four civilians were killed and 17 others wounded, including two women and a child, said the Taliban had sought to keep him from mobilizing Afghans in the region against the Taliban. The overall security situation in Afghanistan, Ismail Khan said, is deteriorating. The Taliban, he continued, have expanded their activities remarkably over the past six months. "Last year I could go to Ghazni to see projects; now I can,t leave the town, I can,t go to Badakhshan to see projects. I can fly to Mazar-e Sharif, but I cannot travel there by road anymore." The fighting season would continue for a couple more months until the winter, but then pick up in the spring with the Taliban stronger than they have been for years. The Afghan Government and ISAF have about six months to address the situation, he stated, before the situation would be extremely difficult to reverse. ¶4. (C) Khan said Afghan Government forces "are twenty times as strong as the Taliban," but the Taliban are better organized and have taken the initiative in picking targets. They have spread their attacks from the south to the east and now the west. The Afghan Government is not using all the assets at its disposal, e.g., the police, nor is it moving to have supporters go out and energize the public to oppose the Taliban. He said NATO and ISAF are fighting a conventional conflict that does not harm the enemy which fights a guerrilla war. More coalition forces will not reverse the situation, he argued; what is needed is a mobilization of the local population. One Solution -- Get the Old Fighters Back -------------- ¶5. (C) Ismail Khan said the solution is to tap into "the culture among the people to fight the Taliban." While the GIRoA is afraid of an uprising, by having those with credibility and experience in getting the Afghans to fight to go out and mobilize the population, the Government can regain the initiative. None of the leaders in the Afghan National Army can have this impact on the public, Khan continued. The Government and NATO should form a commission that looks at the decline in security. The Government should then identify about fifteen people -- presumably experienced fighters -- to go out in the next months appeal to the public to fight the Taliban. It is important, he said, to keep the public,s confidence and ensure they have a sense that the Government can and will win. "It is difficult to recover people,s confidence once we have lost it," he said. KABUL 00003182 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) Comment: While asking Ambassador Wayne to carry this message to the U.S. and ISAF that it is time -- and necessary -- for the Afghan Government to engage and deploy old experienced leaders to mobilize Afghans against the Taliban, he has also told Tolo TV and Radio Azadi that the Government needs to come up with a new approach. Many will question Khan,s recommendations, recalling the very negative effects of local militias in previous years, for example. However, his is a well-known voice calling attention to the deteriorating security situation and the need for the government to mobilize support from local populations where the Taliban and other insurgents are expanding violent activities. End Comment. EIKENBERRY