AFGHAN MINISTERS UPBEAT ON MEETING NEXT FIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 003070 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINS MOPS EAID AF SUBJECT: AFGHAN MINISTERS UPBEAT ON MEETING NEXT FIVE YEARS, CHALLENGES REF: A. KABUL 2161 ¶B. KABUL 1914 ¶C. KABUL 1568 KABUL 00003070 001.3 OF 003 Classified By: Deputy Ambassador Francis Ricciardone for reasons 1.4 (b ) and (d) 1.(C) Summary: We have been engaging with key ministers as well as the Karzai and Abdullah teams to lay the groundwork for cooperation in addressing challenges and opportunities over the next five years. In a meeting with ministers from the Finance, Agriculture and four other key service ministries and agencies on September 2, Ambassador Eikenberry underscored the need to use increased U.S. assistance to create momentum behind genuine improvements on the ground, particularly with regard to governance. The Ministers overall were upbeat in their assessments of a second Karzai administration. They anticipated increased emphasis on the sub-national level but expressed concern over the lack of resources currently available for that task. Finance Minister Zakhilwal mentioned plans to improve coordination within the government. All acknowledged the corruption issue, though one key player suggested charges of corruption are exaggerated and called for "mutual accountability." On reintegration of insurgent fighters, Presidential Advisor Stanekzai reiterated his ideas on an "overarching strategy" and laid out some of the challenges involved in its implementation, including the need for major investment in water and agriculture to create sustainable jobs. End Summary. 2.(C) Ambassador Eikenberry, Coordinating Director for Development and Economic Affairs (CDDEA) Ambassador Wayne and other members of the Country Team met on September 2 at the Independent Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) with its Director, Jelani Popal, along with Minister of Finance Zakhilwal; Minister of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) Rahimi; Minister of Rural Rehabilitation and Reconstruction (MRRD) Zia; Deputy Minister of Justice Hashimzai; and Special Presidential Advisor on Internal Security and Vice Chairman of the Demobilization and Reintegration Commission Stanekzai to hear their views on likely challenges and priorities in a second Karzai administration. The discussion was followed up similar discussions with security sector ministries (ref a) and with opposition candidate Abdullah (ref b). The U.S. Message -------------- 3.(C) Ambassador Eikenberry and CDDEA Ambassador Wayne stressed the readiness of the U.S. to work constructively with the next Afghan government, and called on the Afghans for concrete and speedy action to create momentum for positive change in governance. The Ambassador noted the decline in U.S. public support for U.S. engagement in Afghanistan as well as questions being asked by visiting CODELs about when U.S. troops might move to the second rank, behind Afghan security forces. He cautioned against misinterpreting U.S. engagement as "rental" of Afghan territory for self-interested geopolitical motives. Rather, well-defined U.S. interests in Afghanistan need urgently to be supported by positive actions from the Afghan government. These include making the election process credible; appointment of qualified individuals to national and sub-national posts; decisive action against corruption, including prosecutions; and the adoption of a solid, coordinated reintegration strategy. The Ambassador urged that these and other key issues be included in a presidential inaugural address and form the elements of a new compact between the president and the Afghan people. The international community could then endorse this at a foreign ministers, conference in Kabul. Ministers Upbeat but Concerned over Resource Deficit -------------- -------------- 4.(C) The Afghan officials responded positively and were upbeat on the prospects for progress under a second Karzai administration. Presidential Advisor Stanekzai suggested that getting out the message that good programs will continue can help create positive momentum. Finance Minister Zakhilwal predicted good programs now underway will indeed be continued while others are improved. The need for "inclusiveness" will make it impossible to base all high-level appointments exclusively on merit, but he expressed confidence that upcoming cabinet choices will be KABUL 00003070 002.2 OF 003 much improved. He again noted plans to streamline government functions by clustering related ministries (Comment: This point is consistent with talk we have heard about the creation of "super-ministries." (addressed septel) End comment). Zakhilwal speculated that President Karzai,s likely focus on his legacy would make for better governance. He pleadged to the President to deliver the kind of inaugural address suggested by the Ambassador. 5.(C) The Finance Minister went on to stress the importance of continued support for institution-building at both the national and sub-national levels. The sub-national level is particularly critical, he said, because it is there that most people feel the lack of public goods and services. But without the necessary resources, it is impossible for sub-national governance to be relevant. IDLG Director Popal echoed this sentiment and catalogued a long list of provincial and district deficits: 10 governors without steady electricity; 28 of 34 provinces with no permanent Provincial Council building; 184 of 364 districts without a proper office or residence for the district administrator; vast numbers of districts with maintenance funds of only $4-12 per month. This gap between needs and resources must be bridged over the next five years if the President is to be able to make good on his campaign commitment to increase the focus on sub-national governance. Popal reiterated the President,s support for the new sub-national governance policy (currently in abeyance before the Cabinet, pending the installation of a new government),including its derogation of additional responsibilities to sub-national institutions. 6.(C) Popal singled out recruitment as a particular problem. As an example, in both Zabul and Paktika provinces, 90 percent of the ILDG,s positions are unfilled. Minister Zakhilwal cited the lack of resources for the sub-national level as a contributing cause ) if officials lack the wherewithal to be effective, why would qualified individuals want to take such jobs? Several ministers cited poor salaries as a major impediment and called for speeding up pay and rank reform and introducing special pay differentials for service in difficult slots. Minister of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock Rahimi concurred, noting how a UNAMA driver makes more than a senior official in his ministry. He pointed to insecurity, poor living and working conditions and a lack of logistical support as additional problems. Fighting Corruption, on all Sides -------------- 7.(C) Afghan participants acknowledged the need for action on corruption. IDLG Director Popal promised cooperation from his agency, while Presidential Advisor Stanekzai called for anti-corruption measures at the national and sub-national level. Deputy Minister of Justice Hashimzai suggested a system of reporting on court rulings to help render the justice system more transparent. Finance Minister Zakhilwal urged a focus on the causes of corruption, a setting of realistic expectations and a targeting of the greatest vulnerabilities, especially at the sub-national level. He expressed a belief that the actual level of corruption in government is lower than often depicted in the press and proposed "mutual accountability" between the Afghan government and its international partners, with each side open to criticism and change. Reintegration -------------- 8.(C) Stanekzai continues to be the point person in the Afghan government on reintegration (ref C). He has now adopted the phrase "peace and reintegration" in lieu of "reconciliation" to allay concern that his focus is on anything other than commanders and their foot soldiers. No real security will be possible, he argued, so long as the issues of foreign sanctuaries and logistical bases and the Quetta Shura are left unresolved; but such regional questions must be dealt with at the political level. For the reintegration track, he called for an "overarching strategy" linking the various programs and resources available to Afghan authorities. He proposed a light organizational structure, with a small coordination unit at the top, led by Afghans but supported by international partners. Implementation will need to be tailored to the particular circumstances of a given locality. Among the issues any reintegration program will have to address, Stanekzai singled out protection of former insurgents from terrorists and KABUL 00003070 003.2 OF 003 Pakistan,s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI); targeting by international forces and "other organizations;" incentive packages; proper monitoring; and the potential radicalization of detainees upon their release. Key to success over the long-term will be major investment in water and agriculture to create sustainable employment opportunities for young men in the countryside. 9.(C) Comment: Amid widespread concerns over corruption as well as the recent elections and the potential impact of both on the legitimacy of any second Karzai administration, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that the Karzai Cabinet includes a number of talented individuals, including the leaders of these key service ministries and agencies. The members of this group stand a good chance of remaining, in one capacity or another, as members of a second-round Karzai team and certainly appear to be focused on their continued role in national government. The priority they see for sub-national governance is heartening, since this is a principal target of our own efforts and so holds out the promise of good synchronization. Their comments on corruption were a bit more differentiated than we might have preferred, but given Karzai,s sensitivity on the issue and their membership in his inner circle, their reaction was not surprising. We continue to see this group as excellent potential partners for the future. EIKENBERRY