NANGARHAR GOVERNOR SHERZAI PONDERS PRESIDENTIAL RUN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000030

SIPDIS

KABUL FOR USFOR-A COS, CG CJTF-101 POLAD
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA
NSC FOR WOOD
OSD FOR WILKES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: NANGARHAR GOVERNOR SHERZAI PONDERS PRESIDENTIAL RUN

Classified By: Ambassador William Wood for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (C) Nangarhar Governor Gul Agha Sherzai told PRT he would
announce his candidacy for president if he received a green
light from the United States. PRT informed Sherzai any
decision to announce his candidacy would be his own. Sherzai
believes his record as governor proves he would be an
effective president. He has hesitated to declare his
candidacy so far because he fears political retribution from
Karzai. Nangarhar Provincial Council Chairman Fazlhadi
Muslimyar is also a challenger to Sherzai,s position as
governor. End Summary.

Sherzai,s Higher Ambition
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2. (C) In a number of conversations with PRT during the past
month, Governor Sherzai claimed supporters in Kandahar,
Nangarhar, Mazar-e Sharif and other provinces are urging him
to run for president. In addition, Sherzai is raising the
topic more often in his regular meetings with local leaders.
Though he claims not yet to have made up his mind, Sherzai
told PRT on November 25 he was "80 percent sure" he would run
for president, and that he planned to decide sometime after
the Eid holiday, which ended December 11.


3. (C) In the past, Sherzai has privately voiced his
presidential aspirations, but the increased frequency of
these statements indicates a growing seriousness. He
continues to criticize Karzai as too weak and a failed
president. He recognizes, however, that announcing a
challenge to Karzai would change the political dynamic, and
he would go from a key Pashtun supporter to a direct
political threat to Karzai. When Sherzai was Governor of
Kandahar, Karzai fired him for allegations of corruption.

Fishing for Support
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4. (C) On December 14, Sherzai told PRT he would announce
his candidacy for president if he received the go-ahead from
the United States. We told Sherzai that while we were
interested in his intentions, the U.S. was not backing any
particular candidate for president. Sherzai said some would
view his recent meetings with then-presidential candidate
Obama and Ambassador Khalizad as tacit U.S. support for his
candidacy. PRT countered that these meetings were
recognition of his performance as Governor of Nangarhar and
U.S. support for the success of the province in general.


5. (C) Sherzai believes he will get only one chance to run
for president, and that time is now. "A general can lose a
battle and come back to win the war. A businessman can lose
his money but earn it back," he told us. "In politics, you
get one chance. I would be surer of taking the chance if the
U.S. supported me." He added that U.S. support for Karzai
after the fall of the Taliban regime was critical for
Karzai,s presidency. "You were like an eagle that flew out
of the sky and landed on his forehead. After
that, everyone knew that this was who we needed to support.
I am waiting for the eagle to land on my forehead." He fears
a presidential run without U.S. support could lead to the
potential loss of his position as governor of a very
lucrative province should his presidential bid fail.


6. (C) Sherzai believes his record as governor is proof he
would be a successful president. Sherzai cites progress in
Nangarhar during his tenure -- improved security and
increased development in the province, and road construction.
Much of this development, however, has come from the U.S.
and the international community. Sherzai does deserve credit
for his reconstruction efforts in the provincial capital of
Jalalabad, but he does much less work outside the city
limits. There are also questions about his source of
reconstruction funds. Much of the province,s reconstruction
money appears to come from unofficial tolls charged on
freight entering via Torkham Gate, at the Pakistani border.
He has called resources from the toll "reconstruction tax."
In a March 2008 survey conducted by Kabul-based Azadi Radio,
Sherzai was named prominent personality of the year among
five other candidates. Sherzai has in the past pointed to
this survey as a sign of popular support.

Fear of Reprisal from Karzai

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7. (C) Many local observers believe Sherzai has hesitated
in declaring his candidacy because he fears retribution from
Karzai. Jalalabad Mayor Lal Agha Kaker, Sherzai,s political
ally, said Sherzai fears that Karzai might remove him as
Nangarhar Governor if he were to declare his candidacy for
president. After being removed as Kandahar Governor for
allegations of corruption, Sherzai could face political
obscurity if he failed in a bid to replace Karzai and lost
his position as well.

Local Politics
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8. (C) Sherzai also faces local opposition from the young,
up-and-coming Chairman of the Nangarhar Provincial Council,
Fazlhadi Muslimyar. Muslimyar has set himself up as
Sherzai,s political opposition in Nangarhar, often clashing
with him over local and populist issues, such as land
disputes. Muslimyar meets often with President Karzai and
has been tapped to run Karzai,s re-election campaign in
Nangarhar. Muslimyar has made no secret of his desire to
replace Sherzai as Governor, and has told us on numerous
occasions that Karzai plans to name him as Sherzai,s
replacement "in a matter of days or weeks." Muslimyar has
backed away from this claim as time has passed, claiming he
has told Karzai he does not want the position now. Muslimyar
has also allied himself with Haji Zahir, who hails from a
prominent Nangarhar family that is currently out of the
political power loop in Nangarhar. Zahir is working with
Muslimyar against Governor Sherzai. Sherzai considers both
Muslimyar and Haji Zahir political opponents with ties to
President Karzai.


9. (C) Sherzai takes seriously the political threat from
Muslimyar and Haji Zahir, and fears that Karzai could promote
both if Sherzai declared his presidential bid. Muslimyar,s
statements that Karzai has promised to make him governor
could just be simple self-promotion. His claim that he told
Karzai he does not want the job now is most likely sour
grapes - all observers agree Muslimyar would take the job in
a heartbeat. Sherzai fears Karzai will keep his two
political opponents in his pocket as a threat.

Comment
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10. (C) Sherzai enjoys strong support in Nanagahar because
in the eyes of many locals he is a decisive leader who has
done an effective job. Security and economic prosperity have
improved under his leadership. Sherzai enjoys national
recognition, which works both in his favor and against him,
given his record in Kandahar and corruption allegations in
Nangarhar. In the end, Pashtuns would be loathe to split
their vote. We expect they would look at Karzai and any
Pashtun challenger, calcaulate which one would have the best
chance of winning and shun all inferior candidates. We
continue to believe Karzai still comes out on top, including
against Sherzai.
WOOD