BAMYAN GOVERNOR SAROBI PERCEIVES GROWING IRANIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002918 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR AF IR SUBJECT: BAMYAN GOVERNOR SAROBI PERCEIVES GROWING IRANIAN INFLUENCE IN THE PROVINCE Classified By: Interagency Provincial Affairs Deputy Coordinator Hoyt Y ee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: Bamyan Governor Habiba Sarobi revealed data to PRT DoS rep and PRT Commander showing that Karzai and Bashardost each captured approximately 49,000 votes in Bamyan. She stressed that rifts between Mohaqiq and Kalili and between MP Akbari and Deputy Governor Fahimi hurt Karzai, stating that Hazaran voters "were fed-up with these guys and Karzai." In Waras district alone, she stated that Bashardost received over 21,000 votes. Sarobi believes that, for the same reasons, upwards of 80 percent of voters in Day Kundi supported Bashardost. She is confident that neither former governor Aliyar nor Ahlaw Rahmatee, a member of Kalili's staff, will be selected as the next governor (both names had been suggested to us by well-connected UNAMA staff),but admits that Kalili has strong interest in controlling the governorship or chief of police positions to facilitate his personal interest in antiquities trade and opium smuggling. Finally, Governor Sarobi warned of continued Iranian influence in the province, but her concern may be affected by her hyper-sensitivity to personal criticism. The PRT will continue monitoring the situation and seeks close coordination with Task Force Cyclone in this endeavor. END SUMMARY Why the Hazarijat Preferred Bashardost - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) According to the latest figures available to Governor Sarobi, approximately 120,835 or roughly 50 percent of Bamyan's 240,000 registered voters cast their ballots on August 20. She reported that Karzai received 49,496 votes, Bashardost 49,342 votes, and Abdullah 21,997 votes. (NOTE: Recently, we reported figures provided to the NZ police by the ANP that indicated 130,000 of 200,000 registered voters went to the polls, casting 39,500 votes for Karzai, 29,400 for Bashardost, and 25,000 for Abdullah. END NOTE) Governor Sarobi frankly declared that the "conflict" between Mohaqiq and Kalili cost Karzai votes in both Bamyan and Day Kundi because the people have grown weary of the in-fighting and lack of development progress, thus confirming earlier PRT reporting on the source of Karzai's sagging popularity in region. (COMMENT: Interestingly, Sarobi quipped that much of the support Karzai received in Bamyan center was, in fact, a reflection of the popularity of the provincial government. END COMMENT) ¶3. (C) By way of further example, Governor Sarobi added that in Waras district alone, Bashardost received 21,489 votes - nearly half the votes cast for Bashardost province-wide. She credited Bashardost's strong showing in Waras to another chink in Karzai's armor, the rift between MP Akbari and Deputy Governor Fahimi. She remarked that voters there "were fed-up with these guys and Karzai." In Day Kundi, she reported that upwards of 80 percent of voters supported Bashardost and in some areas, such as Jawgaree, Bashardost captured 90 percent of the presidential vote. Thoughts on Who will NOT be the Next Governor - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) When PRT DoS officer brought up the names of Bamyan's former governor and Ahlaw Rahmatee, a member of Kalili's staff from Yakawlang district, as possible replacements as Governor (both names were offered as possible replacements by well-connected UNAMA officials in a previous meeting),Sarobi immediately dismissed both men. She argued that Karzai would not re-appoint Aliyor because he "does not fit well in Bamyan" and could further weaken Karzai's popularity among the Hazara. As for Rahmatee, Governor Sarobi expressed her strong personal dislike for him, stating that he "has caused me many problems" and "accused me of many things that are not true." She cited several examples including Rahmatee's relatives at Bamyan University organizing anti-Sarobi demonstrations, propaganda and accusations published in the magazine "Bahar" accusing Sarobi of stealing antiquities, lecturing in the mosque on Eid, taking funds from aid projects, and of being a bad manager. (NOTE: Sarobi complained that she had filed an official complaint against Rahmatee for making false accusations against her, but that no action was taken because of Rahmatee's close association with Kalili. END NOTE) "Kalili Has Always Wanted Bamyan" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (S) While Sarobi was convinced that Rahamtee would not be appointed governor, she warned that Kalili has always coveted KABUL 00002918 002 OF 002 Bamyan and has attempted on several occasions to influence the appointment of both the governor and chief of police positions to enhance his personal control over the levers of official power. She bluntly stated that Kalili seeks to gain control of the province in order to exploit antiquities related to the ancient Buddha statues and to control and grow opium smuggling. She pointed out that when she took over as governor, opium smuggling from Samangan, through Yakawlang and Day Kundi to Helmand was big business and that she and the police had put a stop to it. Thus, it is her strong belief that Kalili wants, again, to control one or both of these positions. "I Hate What the Iranians do to the Hazara" - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (S) Unprompted, Sarobi raised the issue of continued Iranian influence in Bamyan, promising to provide "lots of documents" about Iranian activities to the DoS officer. Although she spoke mostly in general terms, she did zero in on the Iranian-funded madressa located just behind the PRT, emphasizing that she had fought the appointment of the center's director, whom Sarobi characterized as a "fundamentalist" Tajik Sunni from Eshpushte (in the northeastern corner of Bamyan). She said the director preaches against the governor and the Shia community. Sarobi lamented that the Ministry of Education appointed him despite her vigorous objections, and she asked that the US Embassy pressure the Ministry to have him replaced. She further alleged that none of the students are local shia children, but rather Pashtun and Tajik Sunni from the northeast and other provinces; she worried that these kids were being radicalized in her own backyard. Despite the apparent contradiction of Iranian support to a radical Tajik Sunni mullah, Governor Sarobi insisted that Iran was using the Hazaran people for its own political ends, and she sought Embassy support in countering this influence. Comment - - - - ¶7. (C) There is a long history of Iranian influence in Bamyan that has waxed and waned over time given the Shia connection between Iran and the Hazara. Many credit Governor Sarobi with stemming and even reducing Iranian influence over the past several years. However, Sarobi is clearly not objective in her assessment of the Iranian-run madressa, whose mullah has criticized her on several occasions. She is hyper-sensitive to criticism and reacts strongly. This would not be the first time Sarobi has sought either GIRoA or USG support to remove a source of criticism. ¶8. (C) That said, she has proven to have excellent instincts and the PRT recently began surveillance of an Iranian-funded madressa in the Faladi Valley -- just a few miles from the PRT -- that is rumored to be trying to influence the traditional law practiced by local Shura leaders. At this point, there is not enough information to draw any conclusions. The PRT will continue its surveillance activities and seeks close coordination and information sharing with Task Force Cyclone. EIKENBERRY