AFGHAN ELECTIONS: 100 PERCENT PRELIMINARY COUNT COMPLETE;

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002827 DEPARTMENT FOR S/SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: 100 PERCENT PRELIMINARY COUNT COMPLETE; AUDIT AND RECOUNT TO FOLLOW REF: KABUL 2789 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) announced on Sept. 16 the long-awaited full preliminary presidential election results (i.e. 100 percent of polling stations). Hamid Karzai maintains his lead at 54.62 percent, with Abdullah Abdullah at 27.75 percent and Ramazan Bashardost at 9.2 percent. The counted votes do not include 579 polling stations the IEC had quarantined, which will now be scrutinized by the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC),as well as 737 other polling stations that the IEC removed from the total number of polling stations. Reducing this total number of polling stations allowed the IEC to announce the 100 percent. The IEC's Sept. 16 announcement is a positive development after days of foot-dragging have fueled conspiracy theories and eroded public confidence. But the real challenges now are whether or not the IEC and ECC can work in concert and productively on the difficult tasks of auditing, recounting, and investigating problematic polling stations -- which will take a minimum of two weeks -- and, of course, whether the results of their work will be accepted by the stakeholders in this election. While odds are still in favor of a first round victory, the outcome is not certain, as over 2500 polling stations may qualify for the audit/recount, and many votes from these polling stations reside within the preliminary count. UNAMA hopes that agreed methodology and an IEC/ECC operational plan will be ready by Sept. 19. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On Sept. 16 IEC Chief Electoral Officer Dr. Daoud Najafi announced full preliminary results of 5,662,758 valid votes, with Hamid Karzai at 54.62 percent (3,093,256 votes),Dr. Abdullah Abdullah at 27.75 percent (1,571,581 votes),Ramazan Bashardost at 9.2 percent (520,627 votes),Ashraf Ghani at 2.7 percent (155,343 votes),and Mirwais Yaseni at 0.89 percent (50,461 votes). Other candidates received 271,490 votes, 173,200 votes were invalidated because they were improperly marked, and 82,783 votes were invalidated because they were for candidates who already dropped out. The IEC announcement was supposed to take place on Sept. 14 but it was delayed without clear explanation. ¶3. (SBU) The IEC said the full preliminary count represents results from 23,314 polling stations. This represents a drop of 737 polling stations from the total number of estimated polling stations nationwide that was announced at the previous press conference. ¶4. (SBU) In addition to these numbers, and outside the count, another 579 polling stations remain under quarantine. The IEC has "referred" these to the ECC for action. ¶5. (SBU) On Sept. 17, the ECC briefed that its Category A investigations had produced invalidations of three more polling stations in Ghazni and 14 in Kandahar. It also dismissed three complaints in Ghazni. We are working to determine whether votes from these polling stations have been included in the preliminary count. The ECC said it would release the conclusions of its investigations in Herat, Baghlan, Nangarhar, and Kapisa provinces next week. Analysis -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Najafi's announcement of complete preliminary results, while overdue, was a welcome development that provided key pieces of the puzzle to a public starved for information. ¶7. (SBU) As the IEC worked to reconcile the actual number of Tamper-Evident Bags (TEBs) it received with the number of polling stations that were open and properly secured on election day, it appears the IEC found a number of discrepancies, including "ghost" polling stations. As a result, the IEC chose to reduce the total number of polling stations on several junctures in the counting process. For the final preliminary count, the IEC dropped the number by a rather significant 737 -- from 24,630 (Sept. 12 figures) to 23,893 (Sept. 17 figures). In sum, to reach its final preliminary result, the IEC excluded from the count at least 1316 polling stations (including the 579 quarantined and referred to the ECC). ¶8. (SBU) IEC and ECC are still working out the criteria for the audit/recount, and we expect them to reach agreement on a way forward by Sept. 18. Based on IEC and ECC comments, we continue to believe the audit/recount will affect around 2500 polling stations, some of which will be found to be in the preliminary results total. ¶9. (SBU) More than ever, it is essential that the IEC and ECC work together in harmonious and swift manner to accomplish the large task of completing the audits, recounts and investigations of Category A complaints. This process can still be completed by end of September. The number of polling stations that will be nullified KABUL 00002827 002 OF 002 depends on the degree of fraud in the 2500 stations. Our message to the ECC and IEC has been that we want to see a credible and speedy process. We have supported transparency and statistically-based criteria. We have urged the IEC/ECC to offer a technical briefing on their methodology. Odds remain against a run-off, but there are still many variables, so a run-off is still possible. Once results are officially certified, the key question that remains is whether or not stakeholders will readily accept the results of the IEC/ECC work. ¶10. (SBU) UNDP-ELECT's Margie Cook briefed today that election expert Carlos Valenzuela had arrived in country and that two others from UNDP-HQ in New York arrived to assist the ECC with the audit/recount process. From conversations with senior ECC, IEC and UNAMA figures Sept. 17, we understand that behind the scenes discussions will permit Valenzuela to engage very rapidly to get IEC and ECC to complete discussions on audit/recount methodology and finish an operational plan. UNAMA is hopeful that the SRSG will have results to share with diplomats on Sept. 19. EIKENBERRY