PRT MAZAR: SAMANGAN PROVINCE ASSESSMENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 002774 DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF SUBJECT: PRT MAZAR: SAMANGAN PROVINCE ASSESSMENT ¶1. This is a bi-annual assessment of Samangan Province. ¶2. SUMMARY: Security throughout Samangan province has remained mostly stable over the past year, but insurgents operating in neighboring Baghlan province are trying to undo that. Governor Enayat, considered by his detractors to be a weak governor, strengthened his hand by not succumbing to their demands for his resignation. The Provincial Council, led by a chairman who has cast his lot with MP Ahmad Khan, has done a poor job representing the people. There is better news on the development front, with the launch of new electricity and road projects that will improve the lives of and create economic opportunities for Samangan residents. The US should fund a major potable water infrastructure project and a municipal strengthening program that would benefit residents of Aybak and Khuram Wa Sarbagh districts. END SUMMARY. SECURITY -------------- Mostly calm, but insurgent threat increasing. ¶3. Samangan remains a relatively secure province, but there have been troubling indications over the past few months that that could be changing. The Swedish-led PRT's Samangan analyst reports there have been 19 significant security incidents, involving IED finds and attacks on police checkposts),from the beginning of 2009 through August 8, whereas there were only 15 such incidents recorded for all of 2008. The Samangan National Directorate of Security (NDS) chief points to an increased threat to Samangan from insurgents operating over the border in Baghlan province, in areas where Hungarian-led PRT forces are not patrolling. Samangan Provincial Governor Enayat has complained that his administration was kept in the dark about a joint ISAF/ANA clearing operation in Baghlan in June until it was too late to deploy Samangan Afghan National Police (ANP) units to strategic positions along the province's eastern border. ¶4. Most of the security incidents have occurred in Aybak and Hazrat-e-Sultan districts, in areas where there are Pashtun populations. Insurgents have on occasion launched rocket attacks against an ANP checkpoint along the ring road in Hazrat-e-Sultan, but those have not led to ANP casualties. In April, a young boy was killed when the explosives-laden wheelbarrow that insurgents paid him to push was detonated outside the provincial governor's office. In early July, an ANP soldier was shot dead at a checkpoint in Aybak city - the provincial center - by an unknown assailant. And in late July, in the only reported significant security incident outside of Aybak and Hazrat-e-Sultan, a vehicle belonging to a National Solidarity Program implementing partner struck an IED in Rui do Ab district, wounding its driver. Election passes without incident -------------- ¶5. The Provincial Independent Election Commission (IEC) chief reported no security-related problems at any of the voting centers in the province before, during, or after the election. Due to its low numbers, the Samangan ANP was unable to provide security escorts to provincial council candidates. A company of 120 Afghan army soldiers arrived in August to provide election security. Bad cop, good cop? -------------- ¶6. Former Samangan police chief Serafudin was removed in May following a physical altercation between one of his ANP soldiers and a Member of Parliament. Although respected by the governor as a hands-on police chief, Serafudin was regarded as corrupt and unprofessional by Finnish police liaison officers, who welcomed the move. His replacement, a former ANP zone commander in Kabul, who took up his new post in late July, brings a similar hands-on approach to the job, and is thought highly of by the governor. OCCP running; FDD a long way off -------------- ¶7. Samangan's Operations Coordination Center (OCC-P) became operational in late July, and is almost fully staffed. U.S.-funded MPRI trainers who trained the OCC-P staff report that the ANP, ANA, and NDS officials are working well together. U.S. military mentors arrived in July to mentor Samangan's OCC-P staff. There is no talk of launching Focused District Development (FDD) of the Samangan police anytime soon. GOVERNANCE -------------- Fortunes improve for Provincial Governor ¶8. Provincial Governor Enayat has weathered a difficult past few months in office mostly due to one man: Ahmad Khan. Khan, a former Pashtun warlord who is now a Member of Parliament, wants to maintain influence in the province and to ensure that Enayat does nothing to upset that. According to the G2 office of the Swedish PRT, Khan is KABUL 00002774 002 OF 004 believed to be behind criminal gangs responsible for kidnappings and drug smuggling in the province. Provincial Council Chairman Haji Serajuddin has sided with Khan in blasting Enayat as an ineffective governor. Tensions peaked last April following the controversial appointment of a new district governor - backed by the Jamist Party - in Lower Dari Suf district. Khan, who leads an ethnic Uzbek Junbesh Party faction, blamed Enayat for facilitating the appointment of a Jamiat Party member in Khan's area of influence. With the support of PC chairman Serajudin and other MPs from Samangan, Khan mobilized a few thousand demonstrators to demand Enayat's resignation. The protest fizzled out after a few days, resulting in a loss of face for Khan that he has had a hard time accepting. It has given Enayat, who has often said that he would rather step down and move back to his native Faryab than continue working as Samangan's governor, if President Karzai were to allow him to do so, a much needed boost to his standing among local residents and to his own confidence. (NOTE: Enayat and his wife consider themselves to be close to President Karzai and his wife. END NOTE) But it has also exposed the frail ties between Enayat and his deputy governor, who at the height of the protest, fled to his home in Baghlan, leaving the governor to fend for himself. Moribund Provincial Council -------------- ¶9. The Provincial Council (PC) revolves around its chairman, Haji Serajuddin, and is overall a weak and ineffective body. Relations between him and Enayat remain poor. Following the failed protest, the PC is effectively moribund. Since then, neither Serajuddin nor any other PC member has set foot in the governor's office or has attended provincial development committee meetings, according to Enayat and the Director of Economy. The 2009 Provincial Council candidate slate included several nominees who did not first consult with Ahmad Khan before deciding to run. According to Governor Enayat, during the Provincial Council elections five years ago, candidates had to seek Khan's permission to run for office. Poppy-free...again -------------- ¶10. Samangan was declared a poppy free province again in 2008, and qualified for another $1 million in Good Performers Initiative (GPI) projects. In mid-July, the Minister of Counter Narcotics visited Samangan where he announced that the province would again receive another $1 million in GPI projects for 2009. Mixed bag on governance; Rui do Ab the worst performer -------------- ¶11. By the governor's own assessment, district governors in Firuz Nakhchir, and Upper and Lower Dari Suf are performing well, but the same is not to be said of their counterparts in Rui do Ab, Khuram Wa Sarbagh, and Hazrat-e-Sultan districts. For example, Rui do Ab district governor Azizullah, who was a district official under the Taliban, is a poster boy for bad governance, and is alleged to be involved in weapons smuggling to Baghlan and Bamian provinces. The Samangan provincial prosecutor attests to Azizullah's criminal behavior but is afraid to take measures against him over concerns of triggering revenge from members of Azizullah's network. The Rui do Ab police chief has told PRT officials that some of his men are more loyal to Azizullah than to the Afghan government. Governor Enayat would like to change Azizullah, but has not pressed this point too hard with the Independent Directorate for Local Governance (IDLG) probably because Azizullah - like Enayat - also harbors disdain for MP Ahmad Khan. ¶12. Rui Do Ab, Firuz Nakhchir and Khoram wa Sarbagh districts have undergone the Disbandment of Illegal Armed Groups (DIAG) process and have been declared DIAG compliant. DIAG implementation is to start in Hazrat-i-Sultan district later this year, but other districts in the province have yet to be targeted. DEVELOPMENT -------------- Power grid extends to Aybak, reduces costs for consumers. ¶13. Samangan's Provincial Development Committee (PDC) is still putting the final touches on its one-year (2009) and five-year (2009-2013) provincial development plans (PDP). After several fruitless trips to Kabul, Governor Enayat finally succeeded at getting the central government to provide electricity to Aybak. Up until June 2009, Samangan was not on the power grid and was forced to rely solely on sporadic generator-powered electricity. The Minister of Energy announced the extension of a power line from Baghlan province to Aybak city that now provides residents with 24/7 electricity and sharply reduces consumption charges from 26 afghanis per kilowatt (fifty cents) to 4 afghanis per kilowatt (six cents). This deliverable has helped Governor Enayat beat back the oft-cited claims of MP Khan and PC Chairman Seraj that he has not brought significant development to the province. Construction of a 220 KW KABUL 00002774 003 OF 004 power substation in Aybak is also envisioned; that will provide enough electricity to residents living within a five kilometer radius of Aybak city. However, the Director of Rural Reconstruction and Development (RRD) is not certain that plan will be realized. Mazar City - Lower Dari Suf road construction underway -------------- ¶14. Construction of a 144-kilometer-long asphalt road from Lower Dari Suf district to Mazar-e-Sharif city in Balkh province is running several months behind schedule. Once completed (now previewed for the end of 2010),the $7.25 million road project will foster commerce by allowing farmers and merchants in rural communities to get their agricultural goods to Mazar and other markets much more quickly. However, the Samangan RRD director had argued that priority should have been given to the asphalting of the road between provincial center Aybak and Lower Dari Suf district. He said that the voices of "powerful people" - a reference to Balkh Governor Atta and others - carried the day in deciding to pave the Mazar city-Lower Dari Suf route. Water woes and a proposal to address them -------------- ¶15. Lack of potable water in Aybak is another acute problem. According to the RRD director, wells must be dug to a depth of 400 meters to ensure ample quantities of water yearlong. Only one such well exists in all of Samangan, and digging more of them is not a long term solution. What the RRD director and other engineers view as the long term solution to Aybak's water shortage is the construction of a 34-kilometer-long, gravity-fed water system that would deliver potable spring water from Khuram Wa Sarbagh district to 150,000 beneficiaries in Aybak. The RRD estimates the cost of this project at $14 million, but it only has $4 million of its own money to apply toward it. Lucrative coal mines in need of privatization -------------- ¶16. Upper Dari Suf and Rui do Ab districts are home to significant coal deposits, which are mined by wildcat miners, who, after paying a modest registration fee, are able to mine and sell as much coal as they can. Buyers pay tax to the Ministry of Mines based on the net weight of the mined coal. Coal smuggling is commonplace, as are fatalities from mining injuries. Safety regulations are nonexistent. The Ministry of Mines has contracted the mine in Rui do Ab to a private firm and wants to do the same for the mine in Upper Dari Suf. USG development assistance -------------- ¶17. USAID is moving forward with plans to build a 50-bed maternity hospital in Aybak city and, potentially, a district center in Rui do Ab. Its new agriculture project, IDEA NEW, has begun training farmers in melon fly preventive measures and has been surveying agricultural depots in Samangan. In October 2009, USAID is expected to launch the Performance Based Governor's Fund (PBGF),in partnership with other donors. This will enable Governor Enayat to meet operational and community outreach needs (i.e. vehicle maintenance, shura-related expenditures) which, in turn, will allow him to be more responsive to the concerns of Samangan residents. Swedish and Finnish reconstruction efforts -------------- ¶18. Through the PRT, the Finnish government is spending one million euros to build police stations in Firuz Nakhchir district center and in Robotak village of Khoram Wa Sarbagh district, near the provincial border with Baghlan. Finnish money is also being used to support police literacy training. Finland recently announced that later this year, it will launch a three-year-long, rule-of-law training program that will cycle-through Afghan prosecutors from the northern region and Kabul. Swedish development agency SIDA is funding the construction of a physiotherapist clinic in Aybak and two primary schools in Lower Dari Suf and Hazrat-e-Sultan districts, as well as the rehabilitation of a 50-kilometer stretch of road in Rui do Ab district. NSP projects completed except in Aybak -------------- ¶19. National Solidarity Program (NSP) projects have been completed throughout Khuram Wa Sarbagh, Hazrat-e-Sultan, and Firuz Nakhchir districts. Other districts will wrap up their projects in August. NSP has not been launched in Aybak city, where community development councils still have not been formed. COMMENT -------------- ¶20. Samangan's relatively good security belies its vulnerable position next to Baghlan province, where security continues to deteriorate. To this end, fast-tracking FDD training of the ANP in KABUL 00002774 004 OF 004 the border districts of Khuram Wa Sarbagh, Aybak, and Hazrat-e-Sultan, through which the ring road passes, is warranted. MP Ahmad Khan will continue to look for opportunities to reassert his strongman presence and to undermine Governor Enayat's authority. The Provincial Council needs new leadership to reset its relationship with the governor lest it continue to sideline itself from playing the advisory role that it should. ¶21. The establishment of our consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif will raise the expectations of northern residents for more USG-funded development projects in the region. Water should be one of our focus areas. As part of its nationwide Sustainable Water Supply and Sanitation Project (SWSS),or barring that, through another suitable initiative, PRT Mazar believes USG development assistance should support construction of the $14 million water-pipe scheme that would put an end to Aybak's and the surrounding area's water woes. U.S. backing of that water project could help ensure that patients and staff at the maternity hospital we are building and the 300,000 resident beneficiaries of the surrounding area have a permanent, potable water supply. We need to think beyond water, though, and should also implement a dedicated municipal strengthening program - covering such areas as trash collection, street maintenance, financial management - for Aybak city just as we have done for a number of municipalities in the South and East. The new PBGF program should reduce Governor Enayat's need to request assistance for small expenditures from the PRT and international donors and should increase his responsiveness to residents of his province. EIKENBERRY