IEC RELEASES RESULTS WITH QUESTIONABLE BALLOTS;

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 002748 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: IEC RELEASES RESULTS WITH QUESTIONABLE BALLOTS; ECC CALLS FOR PARTIAL RECOUNT AND AUDIT REF: KABUL 2690 Classified By: D/PolCouns V. Alvarado for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: Following the Independent Election Commission's (IEC) reported internal decision on September 7 to allow some suspect polling stations to be included in the vote count, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) voted the next day to order "an audit and recount of the ballots cast at polling stations that exceed certain thresholds that have proven to be strong indicators of electoral irregularities." The ECC's efforts to keep the electoral process on track were rattled later on September 8 when the IEC released results from 91.6 percent of the polling stations processed, reportedly including some questionable results. Representatives from domestic and international USG-funded election monitoring organizations may declare the 2009 elections illegitimate in their final reports on the grounds that the IEC is not functioning independently. Karzai has publicly and privately accused the international community of thwarting his bid for re-election by meddling in the vote count. The ECC decision appears to be an effort to get the IEC to fulfill its responsibilities; Karzai is likely to lash out at the ECC as a foreign-dominated entity. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ECC Calls for National Audit and Recount - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) According to one of the ECC Commissioners, the ECC met the afternoon of September 8 with the IEC to press the IEC to take a firmer stand on electoral fraud. The ECC then released an official order stating that, based on allegations of fraudulent voting in several areas of the country where an excess of ballots were cast for one candidate despite allegedly low voter turnout, and based on initial investigations by the ECC in the provinces of Ghazni, Khandahar, and Paktika, in cooperation with IEC auditors, "the ECC decides in accordance with its authority under Articles 49(2) and 54(e) of the Electoral Law that it is necessary and appropriate to conduct an audit and recount the ballots cast at polling stations that exceed certain thresholds that have proven to be strong indicators of electoral irregularities.. . Therefore, the ECC hereby orders the IEC to conduct an audit and recount of ballot boxes for the Presidential election in polling stations nationwide for which the preliminary results indicate either i) that the total number of votes cast in a polling station is equal to or greater than 600, which represents a 100 percent turnout based on the IEC's pre-poll estimates of likely voters in that locations, or ii) that any one Presidential candidate received 95 percent or greater of the total valid votes cast in the polling station, provided that the total number of votes cast in the polling station exceeds 100." ¶3. (U) The ECC order notes that, "Such audits must be conducted in the presence of Observers, agents, and representatives of the ECC." It also states that, "the ECC is still conducting investigations into the majority of complaints it has received about polling and counting, and the present decision in no way limits its authority to investigate and sanction electoral violations where it finds clear and convincing evidence. The ECC is taking this decision to audit and recount results that have been published and raise significant suspicion of fraud so that the ECC and the IEC can properly investigate. Any decision to exclude subject ballots will only be taken after clear and convincing evidence had been obtained." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - IEC AND KARZAI CAMP PREEMPTION - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (C) The ECC's efforts to keep the electoral process on track were rattled later in the day when the IEC released results from 91.6 percent of the polling stations processed, reportedly including results from some questionable polling stations categorized as "mid-range" fraud sites (cases where total number of votes cast in a polling station is equal to or greater than 600 or where any one Presidential candidate received 95 percent or greater of the total valid votes cast in the polling station). According to the latest IEC partial release, Karzai obtained 54.1 percent, Abdullah 28.3 percent, Bashardost 9.2 percent, and Ghani 2.7 percent. While, the IEC announced that over 600 polling stations (including the 447 previously announced as annulled) have been quarantined, we understand that some ballots falling under the category of mid-range fraud may have been included in this tally. (Comment: We are working to verify the extent to which KABUL 00002748 002 OF 003 questionable ballots, and what kind, were included in this latest tally and will report Septel. End Comment.) - - - - - - - - - - - - Observers On Orange Alert - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) We met on September 7 with representatives from the Free and Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA), National Democratic Institute (NDI),Democracy International, the Asia Foundation and the International Republican Institute (IRI) to discuss the views of these USG-funded observer groups who monitored the August 20 presidential and provincial council elections. We also discussed the implications of reports that the IEC had declared it would not set aside suspicious ballots tallied at 477 voting stations and instead would allow all votes to be counted. The consensus was that this move would so taint the election results that neither the Afghan voters nor the international community could or would accept the election results as a legitimate reflection of the will of the Afghan people. ¶6. (C) The observer representatives discussed the consequences of a reported IEC decision that the IEC did not have legal authority to rule on the validity of sequestered ballots taken from several hundred voting stations. The IEC will apparently turn to the ECC for a ruling on how these ballots should be handled. This seems unnecessary according to Article 60 of the Electoral Law, which grants both the IEC and ECC the authority to quarantine or permanently remove ballots as they deem fit. Such a move would not only undermine the legitimacy of the August presidential election, but would call into question the ability of the IEC to credibly function in any future Afghan election. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - UNDP/ELECT Also Criticized - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) NDI, Democracy International and FEFA representatives cited troubling practices observed from both the IEC and UNDP/ELECT. USAID and Carney Team representatives pointed out that UNDP/ELECT failed to enact stronger measures to maintain the integrity of the voting process, such as maintaining a chain of custody for ballots and being transparent with donors in its decision-making. Several representatives commented that the IEC seemed to be "stage-managing" the vote tally to prepare the electorate for a late surge in votes leading to a Karzai victory. ¶8. (C) Election monitors were unanimous that the IEC could preserve the legitimacy of the election results by choosing to process the ballots contained in the quarantined voting stations according to international norms. They expressed skepticism that the IEC would do so, agreeing that their respective organizations would most likely be forced to report in coming months that the IEC and UNDP/ELECT failed to ensure that a legitimate election had taken place. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Gaining Traction on Our Messages to the Afghan People - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (C) Following the meeting, Embassy Kabul issued a press statement reiterating our position that like the Afghan people we take allegations of electoral fraud very seriously. On September 8, UNAMA SRSG Eide issued a press statement that reinforces our message. Our statement was also shared with FEFA, which has indicated that it may also issue its own press release. Embassy Kabul Statement: "The United States and the international community are looking to the Independent Electoral Commission to carry out its legal mandate to count all votes and to exclude all fraudulent votes. Like the Afghan people, we are taking allegations of fraud in the election process very seriously. Anything less than rigorous vetting would call into question the credibility of the announced results. A legitimate electoral process is vital to the ability of the international community to partner with a newly-elected Afghan government." UNAMA Statement: "This week is expected to see the end of the tallying process conducted by the Independent Election Commission (IEC). Over the next days, the election will then move to the next state KABUL 00002748 003 OF 003 - the adjudication of complaints by the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC). All of us are keen to see the processes move forward without delay so that a final and just outcome is arrived at. In light of the concerns that have arisen over irregularities, I am calling today on the IEC and the ECC to redouble their efforts to ensure full rigour in their work at every stage. This includes excluding from the preliminary count results from ballot boxes where there is evidence of irregularities. The integrity of these elections is of the utmost importance to Afghanistan and to its international partners. I look to both the IEC and ECC to carry out their mandated work to high standards and to ensure that the final outcome faithfully reflects the will of Afghanistan's voters." (Poc: PAS/Elections Team SRAP Amiri). ¶10. (S) Comment: Karzai has publicly and privately accused the international community of thwarting his bid for re-election by meddling in the vote count, of trying to make him more malleable to foreign interests, and inciting the international media. The ECC decision appears to have been an effort to cut off Karzai at the pass, but the IEC's announcement of most of the remaining votes, including questionable ones, has weakened that effort. Karzai is likely to lash back that the ECC is a foreign instrument. If he does so, however, he will risk his credibility once the audit and recount reveals the likely scope of electoral manipulation. Karzai appears determined to win the election on the first round, and he is using the international community to divert public attention. EIKENBERRY