AFGHAN ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: THE NUMBERS AND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002660

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS SNAPSHOT: THE NUMBERS AND THE
INSTITUTIONS

REF: KABUL 2638

Classified By: PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. At 47.8 percent of results announced on
August 31, Hamid Karzai leads with 45.9 percent of valid
votes and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah has 33.3 percent. Post
projections, based on informal extrapolation from currently
available data, have Karzai finishing at 49.5 percent and
Abdullah at 28.9 percent, with a number of variables that
constitute a wide -- and crucial -- margin of error. A
possibility of a first round victory does exist. The
Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and Electoral
Complaints Commission (ECC) are under increased pressure from
candidates and the public to release results and process
fraud claims in a transparent, credible and swift manner. In
the past day they have taken steps to enhance their
transparency. Post will continue to support these
institutions through our statements, our engagement with key
leaders and the international community, and logistical
support for field investigations. End Summary.

The Numbers
--------------

2. (SBU) With 47.8 percent of polling station results
announced as of August 31, Karzai has 1,317,121 votes (45.9
percent) with Abdullah at 954,256 votes (33.3 percent). The
2,869,562 million valid votes counted so far suggest a
nationwide vote count of approximately 5.6 million votes.
This total is lower than the 7.1 million who voted for
president in 2004 and the 5.8 million who voted in
parliamentary elections in 2005. Since there is no voter
registration list, we cannot measure voter turnout in
traditional ways.



3. (C) Post developed a model that extrapolates from
currently available data to achieve a forecast of the
outcome. As of August 31, the model forecasts Karzai to
finish with 49.5 percent of the vote, Abdullah with 28.9
percent, and other candidates sharing 22 percent of the vote.
Crucial variables that will affect these numbers include the
actual number of polling stations active on election day
(between 27,064 and 26,200),fluctuations in turnout within
provinces, and ballots invalidated by the IEC and ECC. A
first round victory is possible. The next tranche of results
is scheduled to be announced at 1700 Kabul time on September
2; we anticipate the IEC will announce the cumulative results
of 60-65 percent of polling centers.


The Institutions and How to Best Support Them
--------------

4. (C) The IEC has quarantined some 300 Tamper-Evident Bags
(TEBs) during the counting process, 250 of which are expected
to be very problematic. Each TEB represents a polling center
with four to seven polling stations. If nullified, post
estimates these 250 TEBs could represent 250,000 to 375,000
votes depending on turnout levels (or 4 to 6.25 percent of
5.8 million votes),based on a range of 200-300 voters per
polling site.



5. (C) Integrity and effectiveness of the institutions is
vital to whether or not Afghans (and the international
community) deem these elections credible. This is
particularly true as fraud claims increasingly dominate the
media space. There are several vulnerabilies that must be
confronted. The IEC is widely believed to be under Karzai's
control, since he appointed its board, while the ECC is
dominated by expatriate staff and vulnerable to accusations
of foreign domination. There has been public frustration
over the IEC's perceived sluggishness in releasing results,
especially now that the IEC is no longer on target to release
nationwide uncertified results on September 3 (September 7 or
8 is more likely.) The ECC's investigation period may also
take longer than planned, given they have 567 "Category A"
complaints. Abdullah may try to place blame on the IEC, and
Karzai may do the same to the ECC. Finally, political forces
at play at the IEC may try to overrule the work of the
technical fraud experts.


6. (C) However, there have been some promising developments
in recent days. Retrieval of TEBs from the provinces is 98
percent complete. The counting process is making headway,
under the watch of observers. Through the UNDP's urging, the
IEC has taken steps toward better transparency, including
explaining the process by which it sets aside questionable
TEBs (in a press release on September 1),and releasing the
final list and location of polling centers, also on September
1 -- which has been one of Abdullah's priority demands (ref
A). At the last donors stakeholders meeting, both the IEC

KABUL 00002660 002 OF 002


and ECC reported good levels of cooperation with one another
in investigating fraud. For example, the IEC and ECC have
joint teams visiting the provincial centers where they
detected a high degree of fraud, including Paktika, Ghazni,
Kandahar, and Khost. The ECC has a press conference
scheduled for 1500 on September 2 where it is expected to
shed more light on complaints and investigations.



7. (C) Post will continue to support the IEC publicly and
through private meetings with IEC staff, encouraging key
leaders to join our public message to "let the process work."
Post will continue to provide logistical support to ECC for
field invetigations including through U.S. PRTs. Further, we
will ensure the ECC knows they have international support in
the event they need to make a controversial announcement. We
will continue to call on Afghan political figures to let the
process play through and not to interfere.
EIKENBERRY