PRO-KARZAI MPS ASK EMBASSY CLARIFICATION OF U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002636 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: PRO-KARZAI MPS ASK EMBASSY CLARIFICATION OF U.S. ELECTION POLICY Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Victoria Alvarado for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador Eikenberry and Election Team Ambassador Carney reiterated to a meeting of 40 pro-Karzai MPs our position of neutrality regarding presidential candidates and our commitment to helping the Afghan people achieve a successful and credible electoral process. Ambassador Eikenberry called for patience and restraint to allow the electoral process to take its proper course. The Ambassadors dispelled assertions from the audience that S/SRAP Holbrooke had "ordered" a second round, emphasizing that this decision is in the capable hands of the Afghan Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). While the pretext for the meeting, requested by Karzai's chief of staff, was to discuss un-sourced allegations in foreign and domestic media that S/SRAP Holbrooke had told Karzai a second round would be necessary, the real motive likely was to persuade us to endorse a Karzai victory on the first round, regardless of the level of fraud found by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) and the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC). End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - To Repeat - The IEC Will Determine the Election Outcome - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (C) Ambassador Eikenberry and Election Team Ambassador Carney met at the Embassy on August 30 with a group of approximately 40 pro-Karzai parliamentarians the afternoon of August 30. They reiterated to the MPs U.S. neutrality regarding political candidates and our commitment to helping the Afghan people achieve a successful and credible electoral process run by Afghans. The last-minute meeting, called at the request of Karzai,s Chief of Staff, Umer Daudzai, included pro-Karzai MPs from 20 provinces. Carney emphasized that these elections have been run by Afghans through the IEC and the ECC. He explained that through the UNDP, the international community has assisted these Afghan efforts with over USD 130 million and with firm moral support. The international community, including the United States, remained clear that the IEC will decide Afghanistan's electoral outcome. The IEC will certify the election results once the ECC adjudicates all critically important complaints, Carney said. ¶3. (C) Carney dispelled the MPs' allegations that they had heard that S/SRAP Holbrooke had &ordered8 a second round. He reported that he had just talked by phone with Ambassador Holbrooke, who firmly supported IEC Chair Najafi,s public statement that any decision regarding a second round would be the IEC,s to make, consistent with the Afghan constitution. He also debunked the new rumor that the upcoming SRAP conference in Paris would &determine8 the outcome of Afghanistan,s election, clarifying that the Paris meeting is one of several routine SRAP meetings that have been convened over the past months. The MPs suggested that a statement from Washington reiterating the U.S. policy of neutrality might quell these divisive rumors, which only played into the interests of the enemies of Afghanistan and its allies. ¶4. (C) Ambassador Eikenberry, who later joined the meeting with Ambassador Wayne, called for patience and restraint to allow the electoral process to take its proper course. He remarked that 20 U.S. troops were killed in Afghanistan in the week of the elections. These Americans, along with many brave Afghan counterparts, had died to defend the Afghan people,s right to vote. He reminded the audience that Afghans had filed a number of ballot-related complaints, and these allegations must be investigated through the proper Afghan channels. He reiterated our position that we neither favor nor oppose a particular candidate; nor do we favor or oppose one round, or two rounds. Our only favorite candidate is the Afghan people, and we will work with whomever wins, he emphasized. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - A Little Fraud Pales Next to Threats of Iran and Taleban - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) While acknowledging that some electoral fraud had occurred "on all sides," the MPs argued that "a few little mistakes" should not destroy the aspirations of 8 million Afghans (by their estimate) who voted despite death threats, maiming, the launchings of RPGs and mortars, and IED explosions. They warned that the "armed enemy" is eager to seize the opportunity to convince Afghans that the United States really controls the country; a game they will win if KABUL 00002636 002 OF 002 the Americans impose a certain election outcome and ignore the will of the Afghan people. The MPs also played the Iran card, warning us that Iran was seeking revenge for U.S. meddling in the Iranian elections by interfering in Afghanistan,s polls. They asserted that two or three of Abudullah's campaign advisors were closely tied with Iran. ¶6. (C) Eikenberry responded that our concerns with Iran are not about specific people. Rather, the United States is concerned about the actions of any nation that undermine the national security of Afghanistan and our shared interest in helping Afghanistan become a strong, well-governed nation that can defend itself against terrorist threats. He reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to stand with the Afghan people, its government, and the next administration, and to jointly reject harmful meddling from the outside. ¶7. (C) Following the departure of the Ambassadors, the MPs asked to continue the conversation. An MP from Kabul asked us why the U.S. Government had stopped supporting President Karzai after he started criticizing the United States for causing so many Afghan civilian casualties. We replied that it was understandable that, as the leader of his nation, President Karzai would defend the lives of his people. Further, the American people had shared the Afghan people's dismay and sadness over the death of Afghan civilians. The U.S. Government's new strategy reflected this shared concern. At the close of the meeting, a number of the MPs voiced concern that if a second round were mandated, voter turnout would be poor because people would be afraid and weary of the process. Referring to the Ambassador's earlier message that it is incumbent upon the IEC, not the international community, to determine whether or not a second round is called for, we reminded the parliamentarians that we will respect the decision of the proper Afghan authorities regarding the electoral process. ¶8. (C) Comment: The official Palace justification for the meeting was to discuss the unfounded allegations in foreign and domestic media that S/SRAP Holbrooke had told Karzai a second round would be necessary. However, we suspect that the real motive was to press us to endorse a Karzai victory on the first round, regardless of the level of fraud found by the IEC and the ECC. The parliamentarians' claims that we are meddling by pressing for a second round, their warnings of Iranian interference and association with Karzai rival Abdullah, and the assertion that the "armed enemy" will exploit the tensions between the United States and the Karzai administration, all suggest the Karzai camp is concerned that the level of fraud may reach a threshold that could derail a first-round victory for their candidate. They are increasingly desperate to convince us that our staying with Karzai is the only safe way forward. End Comment. EIKENBERRY