FINANCE MINISTER MAY ENTER PRESIDENTIAL RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000259 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2018 TAGS: PGOV AF SUBJECT: FINANCE MINISTER MAY ENTER PRESIDENTIAL RACE REF: KABUL 244 Classified By: Political Counselor Alan Yu for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Finance Minister Anwarulhaq Ahadi signaled this week he may resign from the Cabinet and run for president. The Afghan Millat party's executive committee, which Ahadi heads, announced Tuesday it had decided to drop its nominal support for President Karzai and endorse Ahadi. Ahadi, however, has yet to make a formal announcement concerning his candidacy. Ahadi's aides tell us it may take several days before he issues a public declaration of his intentions. He remains Finance Minister for now. Party Endorses Candidacy, But Acceptance Unclear -------------- ¶2. (C) Local media reported on February 3 that Afghan Millat had endorsed Ahadi for president. Lower House MP Dr. Ghulam Farooq Miranai (Nangarhar, Pashtun) said party members had lost confidence in Karzai over the last two years and could no longer continue to support the president. Most party members backed Karzai's 2004 campaign and its roughly 20 MPs have generally supported Karzai's positions in Parliament. On Monday, Miranai called a party executive committee meeting. The 30 members who attended sharply criticized Karzai's record on corruption, security, and governance. Many also voiced concerns that Karzai had ignored the party's counsel in favor of advisors with ulterior motives. The committee voted 25-3 (with two abstentions) to switch its support to Ahadi. Miranai said Ahadi was at the meeting and accepted the party's endorsement, but aides close to Ahadi said the minister has yet to make up his mind. ¶3. (C) If Ahadi does decide to run, he will almost surely resign his position as finance minister -- assuming Karzai does not fire him first. Ahadi's potential run for the presidency comes at a busy time for the Finance Ministry, which introduced the government's budget to Parliament this week and must supervise fulfillment of International Monetary Fund conditions in the weeks ahead. One Ahadi aide said ministry staffers were on "pins and needles" waiting to know the fate of their "beloved" boss amid such important events. Miranai suggested Ahadi would keep a low profile for the next two weeks to avoid a confrontation with Karzai and allow him to finish work at the ministry. Ahadi had submitted his resignation to Karzai in November over a dispute with a deputy minister, but eventually dropped his complaint. ¶4. (C) Miranai told us the party will begin actively campaigning for Ahadi later this month. He promised Ahadi would deliver a major speech and the party would publish a platform within three weeks. Miranai added the party will reach out to other factions in Afghan politics for negotiations over potential power-sharing arrangements, knowing its Pashtun-nationalist base limits its nationwide appeal. Miranai said Afghan Millat is united behind Ahadi, though we suspect deputy party chief Jelani Popal, who heads the Independent Directorate of Local Governance, will continue to back Karzai. Also unknown is how Ahadi's presidential ambitions play into his father-in-law Pir Gailani's efforts to forge a unity government of mujahideen leaders. ¶5. (C) As we anticipated, the announcement of an election date has opened the door for would-be candidates to toss their hats into the ring (reftel). Afghan Millat is one of the oldest political parties still active in Afghanistan and has many supporters in Kabul, eastern provinces, and the Pashtun pockets of the north and west. Still, party leaders will need to actively pursue coalition arrangements if they hope to make an impact in a national election. Ahadi as a candidate presents a capable, respected bureaucrat, but by some accounts dull personality. To be a major factor, he would need greater popular support than Afghan Millat can offer alone. WOOD