AFGHAN ELECTIONS: REACTIONS TO PARTIAL ELECTION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 002583 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: REACTIONS TO PARTIAL ELECTION RESULTS REF: KABUL 2528 Classified By: Classified by PolCouns Annie Pforzheimer, Reasons 1.4 (b ) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Following the first Independent Election Commission (IEC) announcement of results on August 25, the political outlook and the candidates' behavior has changed little--public pronouncements of mass fraud and political posturing continue--mainly because the results were inconclusive (ref A). (However, numbers released late August 26 show a widening gap in favor of Karzai - septel.) Leading candidates are trying to get the minor candidates to join their teams and all the candidates except Karzai continue to claim "widespread fraud." Proposals for a national unity government or a parliamentary system are being circulated by the self-interested. Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) fraud case numbers and updated talking points included paras 9-10. End Summary. -------------- Media Blitz on Fraud -------------- ¶2. (C) The IEC announcement of partial elections results late August 25 was met with more of the same--more complaints of "widespread fraud," in particular by the candidates with lower numbers, and more rumors of back door deals and negotiations, in an attempt to create a coalition government. On August 25, the independent channel Tolo TV included reports on individual press conferences held by several second-tier presidential candidates to push the ECC to thoroughly investigate all of their fraud complaints. Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, Mirwais Yaseni, Motasembellah Mazhabi, Sayed Jalal Karim, Bismillah Shir, and Ferozan Fana have all held press conferences or made media statements regarding their own perceptions of fraud -- by both Karzai and Abdullah -- in the elections. Sayed Jalal Karim implied to the media that violence could be a result of an election that was perceived as fraudulent. ¶3. (C) Abdullah Abdullah is likely the source of footage aired by Tolo TV of what appears to be people stuffing ballots in the Aghojan village of Gelan District of Ghazni province. While Tolo did not report on the source, Abdullah has told us in conversations that he had such footage and was planning to release it. It aired on August 25. The ECC has said in a press statement that it is currently investigating allegations of vote rigging in Kandahar, Ghazni, Wardak, Kunduz, Paktika, Paktia, and Baghlan. ¶4. (C) Presidential Candidate Sarwar Ahmadzai (Pashtun and Kuchi) told us the Ahmadzai Pashtun are frustrated with the fraud levels, noting he had sent his complaints to the IEC. He said if there are no investigations, his people will "take to the streets" if Karzai is re-elected. He claimed Karzai's people stuffed ballot boxes even in Kabul, noting that at the site where he voted with his closest supporters, only two votes for him were supposedly cast. He said he personally knew MPs that kept Kabul ballots in their homes before the elections. Ahmadzai brought six tribal leaders to the meeting at the Embassy, from Kabul, Wardak, Logar, Khost, Paktika, and Nangahar provinces. They claimed that their people think the U.S. supports Karzai, and that is hurting our public credibility. They added that considering how unfairly the pre-election period went, with the shameful use of government resources to campaign, no one was surprised when the voting process was also fraudulent. Ahmadzai expressed a need for an ECC public broadcast that would explain to the people that the fraud is being investigated, so they remain calm; the ECC has not done this but it has issued a press release inviting observers to visit during a public hour from 2-3 pm daily. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Rumor Mill: Working Overtime - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (S) Yaseni told us privately August 26 that both the Abdullah and Karzai campaigns were trying to negotiate with him to form a coalition, and implied that a Karzai coalition was most likely. He went into significant detail about the fraud that his teams witnessed, handing us a number of spoiled ballots marked for him, which he said had been found outside a polling station. The ballots had official IEC stamps on them, which partially supports his story, and he has filed a complaint with the ECC. Yaseni stated that the election signaled the "end of democracy" in Afghanistan and that no one would turn out to vote in future elections now that they see how their votes are ignored. He challenged the international community to save the elections from the "300 percent" rigging that had occured or else to allow the KABUL 00002583 002.2 OF 003 elections to be completly set aside. He specifically advocated throwing out the results of the election and forming a "unity government" headed by Ashraf Ghani, comprised of "major candidates" with Karzai as head of state but not head of government, and with pro-Karzai Tajik representation for ethnic balance; "Abdullah can be Foreign Minister," he offered. ¶6. (C) Candidate Ahmadzai said most minor candidates "were running towards Karzai," although he had refused due to Karzai's affiliation with Dostum, Mohaqqeq, and Fahim. Some are waiting for Ashraf Ghani to return from Dubai in order to try to negotiate a better deal. (Note: Some MPs claimed to us that Ghani's stomach cancer has returned, and he is seeking treatment.) Despite Abdullah's fraud protests, many of our interlocutors predict a Karzai victory in the first round. A close Abdullah supporter in Panjshir told us Abdullah was "working on a deal with Karzai," and was pushing for a Prime Minister position, which would require a change to the parliamentary form of government. MP Fawzia Koofi (Badakhshan, Tajik) also claimed Abdullah was pushing for the Prime Minister position. ¶7. (C) National Democratic Institute (NDI) representatives told us that they had met with Speaker of the House Mohammed Yunus Qanooni, who said that he believes a deal between Karzai and Abdullah is in the making and that he would be willing to personally facilitate it. The deal that Qanooni described as most likely would be that Abdullah would challenge only some of the votes for Karzai but not enough to prevent Karzai from getting a 50.01 percent majority required for him to retain the Presidency. In exchange, Karzai would not stand in the way when Abdullah formed a Parliamentary Coalition. ¶8. (C) According to one press report, a source close to Mohammad Noor Atta, governor of Balkh province, claimed that during his trip to the province August 23, U.S. Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke asked Noor to take part in the formation of a coalition government in Afghanistan. Atta is a prominent Abdullah supporter, and reputedly fears that Karzai will remove him from office. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ECC REPORTS MORE HIGH PRIORITY FRAUD CASES - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) The ECC told us privately that the total number of fraud cases reported is now 1356, and the number of cases they consider high priority (i.e., those that could change the outcome) has increased to 147, or about 27% of the total complaints reviewed. However, this only represents a full scrub of half of the 1356 cases, since this is an ongoing process, so the number of high priority cases will likely increase. This could further delay the ECC's final resolution of the cases, which in turn may delay the announcement of the IEC's final certification. ¶10. (U) Press Guidance/Talking Points on the IEC,s Initial Release of Polling Results ¶Q. Have you seen the results released to date from the IEC? ¶A. Yes. We,ve seen the IEC partial preliminary results released yesterday and today, accounting for approximately 17.2 percent of all polling stations. These announcement are the beginning of a lengthy process. We all need to be patient, allow the IEC and ECC to do their jobs thoroughly and wait for all the results to be released. We call on all parties to refrain from speculation until national results are announced. ¶Q. When will the results be final? ¶A. As the IEC said on August 23, we expect that the final results will be available around September 17-23 and only the IEC can certify results. We call on all candidates and their supporters to behave responsibly. ¶Q. Does the U.S. have confidence in the IEC? ¶A. Yes. We have confidence in the IEC and ECC, which although independent of one another, are linked in the process of tallying votes, adjudicating complaints, and verifying results. ¶Q. Is this process of releasing a tranche of the results over a period of days transparent? ¶A. Yes. The timing of the releases is due to the immense logistical and procedural challenges of the election. We note the IEC also has an observer area in the tallying center KABUL 00002583 003 OF 003 for candidate agents, international observers and diplomats. EIKENBERRY