GHAZNI GOVERNOR DISCUSSES ELECTION, FRAUD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002527 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: GHAZNI GOVERNOR DISCUSSES ELECTION, FRAUD ALLEGATIONS Classified By: Interagency Provincial Affairs Deputy Coordinator Hoyt Y ee for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Ghazni Governor Usman Usmani told the PRT on August 23 that the election results from Pashtun-dominated districts in Ghazni would be legitimate. While Ghazni has received significant domestic and international media attention over Abdullah's allegations of election fraud in the province, Usmani dismissed these charges and noted his belief that a second round of elections would not be necessary. It is unclear whether Usmani, a strong Karzai supporter, fully understands that any appearance of implausible vote totals from Ghazni could give credence to Abdullah's claims of pervasive fraud across the province. End Summary. Turn-Out an Issue in Heavily Pashtun Districts -------------- ¶2. (C) State PRT Reps met with Ghazni Governor Usman Usmani at the PRT on August 23 to discuss the August 20 election and the need to ensure the integrity of the vote count in Ghazni. PRT Reps told Usmani that Ghazni had become a focus of post-election wrangling, with Abdullah's accusations of voter fraud given prominent coverage in international media outlets. PRT stressed to Usmani that it was imperative that the vote counts coming from Ghazni be accurate, and any perceived manipulation of the vote totals or turnout numbers would reflect poorly on the local IEC and Usmani's governorship. ¶3. (C) In particular, State Reps noted that many Pashtun-dominated districts of Ghazni (such as Rashidan, Khogyani, Zana Khan) faced significant violence on election day that resulted in the closure of numerous polling centers (Note: The IEC itself had reported to us that nearly all polling centers had been closed in Khogyani, and the Zana Khan Sub-Governor told us that significant election day violence had shut down voting in the district. End Note.) This fact, coupled with Taliban intimidation, surely significantly depressed turnout in these areas. The PRT underscored that any inflated voter turnout numbers from these areas would lend significant credence to election challenges, and all responsible authorities, including Usmani, must vigilantly guard against any effort to manipulate the totals. ¶4. (C) Usmani told the PRT that he shared these concerns, and confirmed that voter turnout in these districts was very low. Usmani said he was confident that the IEC would report accurate and low vote totals from the violent Pashtun districts. Despite his assertions, Usmani cited "unofficial" turnout numbers from some of the Pashtun districts, that seemingly indicated that at least 60 percent of voters in these areas went to the polls. Usmani also said that from informal discussions with IEC officials, he believed President Karzai received 95 percent of the vote in Ghazni's Pashtun districts. Second Round Not Necessary -------------- ¶5. (C) Usmani, a strong Karzai supporter, shared his view that a second round of the election would not be necessary. He told us that he had spoken the previous evening with Marshal Fahim, who told him that the Karzai ticket had won with 73 percent of the vote. Usmani reserved particular venom for Abdullah, who the Governor asserted had "ignored Ghazni" during the campaign and now claimed he "was Pashtun just for the election." Usmani said that Abdullah's supporters claimed that the governor had personally stuffed ballot boxes in his own residence, a charge he dismissed, asking, "Why would I do it in my own house?" Instead, Usmani said, it was Abdullah's surrogates who were guilty of fraud, and he claimed he had a video of Abdullah campaign workers coercing voters at gunpoint in Nawur district. Usmani said that Abdullah needed to "look at Afghanistan's history" to see that an ethnic Tajik could never govern the country. Usmani said that "80 percent of Pashtuns are quiet because of the president," and that would not be the case if Abdullah won the election. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) A Hazaran IEC official previously told us that ballot stuffing did occur in the district centers in Khogyani, Rashidan, Zanakhan and Andar. The PRT cannot independently verify this as it, along with international and domestic KABUL 00002527 002 OF 002 election observers, and campaign representatives were unable to observe voting in these areas on election day due to the security situation and the ISAF directive to keep coalition forces away from polling sites. However, official vote totals should give indication if this occurred, as any assertion of moderate to heavy voter turnout in these districts would be implausible. Though most of these districts have relatively small populations and any fraud would have to be gross in scope to more than marginally affect the election, vote manipulation in these areas would give credence to Abdullah's charges of fraud in Ghazni and undermine the integrity of the vote in the province. Hopefully, Usmani understands this, despite his strong partisan affiliations with the Karzai camp. EIKENBERRY