AFGHANISTAN'S ELECTORAL BODIES SPEAK OUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002480 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S ELECTORAL BODIES SPEAK OUT ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Over the next several weeks the Afghan Independent Election Commission and Electoral Complaints Commission are the focus of public attention as they make almost daily announcements on election processes, results and complaints. August 22 marked the first public statement of the IEC since the August 20 elections, and August 23 marked the first ECC public statement as well as additional details from the IEC on how and when it will begin announcing results. Final certified results not coming out until the ECC has finished adjudicating relevant complaints. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Independent Election Commission - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) The Independent Election Commission (IEC),the Afghan organization directing elections, gave preliminary readouts about the day of voting at a press conference on August 22. At that time, the IEC reported opening 6,199 polling centers of their projected 6,519. It is not yet clear to observers that these numbers are accurate. The IEC also issued a statement on election-related violence with a simple press release on the killings of 11 of its staffers nationwide, as of August 22. ¶3. (SBU) On August 23 the IEC had two more press conferences. The first one was chaired by the Director of the Commission, Sidiquallah Tawhidi. He presented a summary of the IEC's report regarding the 48 hour pre-election media silence period. He stated that the period had been generally respected, and requested more patience in waiting for results on the part of the media. Tawhidi stressed that no other group or individual's reports of results could be trusted or should be listened to. The Director was emphatic that only the IEC can announce definitive results. He requested that the media report only what they see and leave the prognostications of non-IEC groups out of reports. ¶4. (SBU) Tawhidi also strongly condemned the arrests and harrassment of reporters, all Afghan local media except for one Japanese reporter, on the part of the GIRoA on election day and in the days preceding. Tawhidi demanded that the MOI investigate and prosecute any police wrongdoing. ¶5. (SBU) The second IEC press conference of the day was chaired by Dr. Daoud Ali Najafi, Chief Electoral Officer, in his trademark unflappable manner. He concentrated on process, the area of his responsibility. As of the press conference, provincial capitals had received 75 percent of all TEBs containing vote tallies from individual polling stations. Some capitals had received 100 percent of their expected election materials. However, at the very low end were Daikondi at 22 percent delivered, Ghazni at 28 percent delivered, Takhar at 24 percent delivered, and Nuristan at 38 percent delivered. Somewhat surprisingly, PRT Kandahar reports that Kandahar City has received all ballot boxes as of August 22. If there is large-scale fraud in Kandahar, as has been alleged by some, this could simply be evidence of the eagerness of that operation to have its handiwork counted. ¶6. (SBU) The IEC has 110 people working in shifts and expects to process 2,000 TEBs by August 25. As of August 23, they had processed 750 of the 1000 TEBs that have arrived in Kabul. There is some question about why more of the TEBs from Kabul Province itself have not arrived at the tally center for processing. As of August 22 only 2 TEBs out of 518 expected had arrived. They may be spread throughout all the trucks waiting at the delivery area, where there is a bottleneck. ¶7. (SBU) All ballot boxes and results forms should be in their final locations by August 25, when the first partial results will be announced. From then on, as results are processed, there will be daily announcements by the IEC media center and on the website regarding new tallies. (Comment: There is a risk that this piecemeal doling out of information may inflame the prognosticating going on on all sides, but it is done in the interest of transparency. End Comment.) Between September 3 and 7, uncertified preliminary results will be broadcast by the IEC. From September 17 to 21, the final certified results will be announced on the IEC website and in the media. Previously the IEC had said they would announce final results by September 17 but they have added a window to give the Election Complaints Commission (ECC) flexibility in adjudicating all the relevant complaints. ¶8. (SBU) Members of the Embassy elections team have been at the IEC and tally centers since August 20. The IEC has formulated a policy that that they would refuse to count the ballots from any polling centers that had not had an official Afghan National Security Force presence. The IEC plans to KABUL 00002480 002 OF 002 verify the official polling center data for any questionable boxes with their provincial and district IEC officials. While there are allegations against IEC workers for bias and even intimidation of voters in favor of particular candidates, the organization seems to be struggling toward relative propriety under impressive technical leadership. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Electoral Complaints Commission - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) At its August 23 press conference, the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) was even more careful than the IEC to stress that September 17 is not a firm date for it to have adjudicated all the complaints it has received with bearing on the election. Based on resource and time constraints, the ECC took the effective step of prioritizing the over 400 complaints it has thus far received regarding election day. Those complaints that would have a bearing on the results have been marked "prioritized" and of those, 35 have been designated "high priority." To date, none of the complaints received by ECC were from an IEC polling station, where the ECC had placed complaint forms for people to fill out in the event of an irregularity. These forms have not yet been received by the ECC. ¶10. (SBU) In its press conference the ECC offered few substantive answers to questions about fraud incidents. This posture is both appropriate and safe, especially since the ECC, after a very slow start, has just begun to come into its own and build its institutional capacity to investigate fraud allegations. How much credibility the ECC is able to muster from now on will depend on how it handles the complaints about August 20 and also how it handles the firestorm that will come regardless of which side it favors in its adjudication. EIKENBERRY