Afghan Elections Situation Report Three - 0400 Local,

UNCLAS KABUL 002432 DEPT FOR AFGHAN ELECTIONS TASK FORCE SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF SUBJECT: Afghan Elections Situation Report Three - 0400 Local, August 20, 2009 ¶1. (SBU) A possible last minute weapons ban in Kabul may impact observation efforts. Embassy elections operation center is working to verify specifics of reports that the Ministry of Interior imposed on Tuesday an unpublicized ban of all weapons in Kabul. Reportedly steps can be taken to seek an exemption, but they are unclear. The next sitrep is scheduled for 0800 local on August 20. -------------- Security -------------- ¶2. (SBU) We have confirmed a media report that the Ministry of Interior has implemented a ban stating that no weapons may be carried in Kabul on election day, unless security personnel have an appropriate exemption. It is still unclear how this ban affects properly licensed personal security details. Reportedly, anyone caught with a weapon will be arrested and the weapon will be confiscated. This last minute regulation has the potential to severely restrict international election observer missions, including U.S. embassy teams, who rely on private security companies for protection. ¶3. The Deputy Spokesperson of the Karzai campaign, Seddiq Seddiqi, praised Afghan and international security forces for their efforts to secure the elections to a Canadian Embassy representative on August 19. Acknowledging the attack on a bank in central Kabul earlier in the day, Seddiqi underscored the prompt and professional response of the security forces. The Karzai campaign has high hopes for stability and security through polling day and does not expect electoral violence, but is taking some precautions to safeguard their personnel in the field in the event that political violence does occur. Provincial reports by region follow: Regional Command (RC) - North -- BAGHLAN: NDI observers report the local police in Baghlan have said that there may be an attack on the police station or a guest house where observers are staying. The NDI team is liaising with the ANP and the regional command. -- KUNDUZ: NDI reported that it pulled back its international long-term observers (LTOs) from a hotel in Kunduz City to the PRT in Kunduz due to rocket atacks arlie on August 19. The local nationalobservers and their PSDs are still i the hotel. International LTOs will decide on the morning of August 20 whether to deploy out to the city, but Afghan short-term observers and LTOs still plan to deploy at this time. RC-East -- GHAZNI: There were anti-Afghan forces (AAF) attacks today in Zanakhan, Khogyani, and Rashidan district centers. The ANP temporarily fled the Zanakhan district center after AAF broadcast warnings were announced over loudspeakers. According to Task Force White Eagle, the ANP returned to the Zanakhan district center by the end of the day. There were also AAF attacks on FB Giro and FOB Warrior. A Polish quick reaction force in Giro responded and seized enemy arms. Coalition force helicopters were sent to Mungur district in southern Ghazni to interrogate possible targets on rooftops there, including men carrying RPGs. Governor Usmani told PRT officer that the men were arbakai, in place to protect polling centers. This message was relayed to the helicopters. In a fly-over, the men were observed wearing ANA-type uniforms, and waved at the helicopters. This event illustrates the potential danger of having arbakai and other types of community police at polling centers who are not clearly marked as security hired by the GIRoA. Governor Usmani instructed the Ghazni Police Chief to contact the Operations Coordination Center-Provincial (OCC-P) and provide the details on the arbakai, so that this information could then be sent to Coalition Forces operating in Ghazni province. -- PARWAN: (SBU) Rumors continue to circulate that Abdullah supporters in the province will take to the streets if their candidate does not win. Those who have repeated such rumors to the PRT tend to be either Karzai supporters or relatively neutral. One local commander in the Bagram area told the PRT today that Rabbani/Massoud-allied commanders were distributing weapons to Abdullah supporters to use for such protest actions. Abdullah has strong support in the non-Pashtun areas (i.e. the majority) of the province. RC-West -- HERAT: NDI's two international and two Afghan LTOs plan to deploy on August 20 despite the IED incidents which occurred on August 19. -------------- Voting & Counting Activities -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Regional reporting follows: RC-East -- PANJSHIR: PRT Panjshir has looked into the disappearance of ballots and other sensitive materials bound for Mandol district in Nuristan. The materials, which were driven across Panjshir before being loaded onto pack animals, were reportedly destroyed by armed attackers six hours after crossing into Nuristan. The IEC staff then returned to Paryon district in Panjshir, where they were interviewed by ANP and NDS. UNDP reports that the IEC staff involved had been reluctant to make the trip due to its length and difficulty, raising suspicions that they might have abandoned or sold the materials en route. However, ANP Chief Sabor told PRT he believes the IEC staff are telling the truth. Separately, UNAMA reports that NDS is "100 percent sure" that the ballots were indeed destroyed in Nuristan. -- GHAZNI: In Ghazni province, the IEC has requested assistance in moving voting materials to Jaghatu district. The IEC will bring the materials to FOB Ghazni at 5am on August 20 for delivery by ANA helicopter to Jaghatu district center. Overall, Governor Usmani provided an optimistic report on the status of polling centers across the province; however, the IEC has not confirmed the information provided by the governor. -- PARWAN: The IEC reports that District Field Coordinators (DFCs) and sensitive materials have arrived at all polling centers. In a successful operation, Coalition Forces provided air movement for the DFC and materials this morning to Jozak in southern Kohe Safi district, the only such movement in the province that could not be completed by ground. Coalition Forces will retrieve the materials and DFC tomorrow following the closure of the polling sites in the area. -------------- Voter Turnout -------------- ¶5. (SBU) No updates from sitrep two. -------------- Fraud -------------- ¶6. (SBU) No updates from sitrep two. -------------- Atmospherics -------------- ¶7. (U) In a short discussion with Canadian Embassy representatives, Seddiq Seddiqi, the Deputy Spokesperson of the Karzai campaign noted that optimism is high in the Karzai camp. They believe they are on the winning track, and are confident of electoral victory. Sediqqi was confident that Karzai (a household name in Afghanistan) is well positioned to secure the support of Afghan voters. He stressed that Karzai has made great efforts to engage local and tribal leaders, politcial parties, and youth in an effort to build a broad support base. Afghans, he contended, will vote for the candidate they believe can bring change, and that candidate will be Karzai. ¶8. (U) Sediqqi asserted that the Karzai campaign has mounted a credible, sound and principled campaign for the presidency. While acknowledging "a couple of strong competitors", Sediqqi contended that Karzai has made not significant political errors, and is well positioned to build on his existing Presidential record to win the support of the majority of Afghans. He believes Karzai will win in the first round, and hoped that a second round will not be necessary. Seddiqi rejected any claim of misconduct involving misuse of government resources, stressing that the incumbent was careful even to attend to his personal campaign only during sanctioned holidays. He did not comment of the fine leveled against Karzai running-mate Khalili by the ECC for the inappropriate use of a MOD helicopter earlier this month. ¶9. (U) Sediqqi noted that the Karzai campaign has been satisfied to date with the work of the IEC, noting in particular the challenge of delivering elections under current security conditions. While he was unsure of numbers, Sediqqi was nonetheless confident that the Karzai campaign is not making active use of the ECC at this time. ¶10. (SBU) Regional reporting from key regions and provinces follows: RC-East -- PANJSHIR: On the eve of the elections, Panjshiris are going about their daily business and the mood is relaxed. -- GHAZNI: The PRT officer reports unusual quiet in the province. Homes and businesses along Highway One that are normally bustling with activity were practically devoid of human activity. Local nationals employed on FOB Ghazni interpreted this as evidence of the residents' fear of being seen out in public on the eve of the elections. -- PARWAN: Governor Salangi told us that his visit yesterday to Kohe Safi was relatively uneventful (except for one incident of small arms fire apparently near his location). He promoted the electoral process in a series of meetings and found people enthusiastic for the vote. He plans to visit several polling centers tomorrow in the central, lowland districts of the province to ensure that the process is proceeding smoothly and peacefully. He and ANSF both do not rule out a security incident occurring on polling day. Karzai supporter MP Haji Almas told the PRT that he has been spending the past two days intensively campaigning in Parwan for Karzai. -------------- Public Affairs -------------- ¶11. (U) AFGHAN MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS: There are no media updates for sitrep three. The next media update will appear in sitrep four. ¶12. (SBU) MESSAGING: Messaging remains consistent with Afghan Elections Situation Report One. We will review and update as necessary for the next report. EIKENBERRY