Afghan Elections Situation Report One - 1800 Local, August

UNCLAS KABUL 002427 DEPARTMENT FOR AFGHAN ELECTIONS TASK FORCE SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF SUBJECT: Afghan Elections Situation Report One - 1800 Local, August 19, 2009 ¶1. (SBU) This is the first situation report cable from Embassy Kabul's Elections Operations Center (EOC). The next report is scheduled for 1200 midnight (local) on August 20; reports will be sent every four hours thereafter. Each cable will cover the categories of: security, fraud, atmospherics, and messaging. Starting 0800 (local) August 20, reports will also cover voter turnout and voting/counting activities. Septel discusses political fallout of the media "ban" on coverage of violence. -------------- Security -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On balance, the security situation appears normal in most of the country, even in the conflict-prone provinces of the East and South, with few reports of elections-related violence. However, PRTs report attempts at voter intimidation by insurgents in Paktya and Helmand, where Taliban "night letters" threatening to cut off voters' ink-marked fingers were left in mosques. PRT Paktika also reported Afghan Police discovery and neutralization of an IED placed in a polling center. ¶3. (SBU) High profile security incidents received national and international media coverage, but the most heavily reported -- an attack on a downtown Kabul bank that resulted in the deaths of the three attackers and several policemen wounded -- did not appear to be related to the election (although Salahuddin Ayubi, a sub-commander of the Jalaluddin Haqqani network, claimed the responsibility for the attack.) Provincial reports by region follow: REGIONAL COMMAND (RC)-North --BALKH: A hand grenade was thrown at a polling center in Dawlatbad district, Balkh province. No one was injured. PRT State rep also reported that numerous IEDs have been found on the roads. --KUNDUZ: Security concerns have dominated the lead-up to the election in Kunduz province. The campaign was largely low-key, with much of the campaigning conducted via gatherings of acquaintances rather than large-scale public rallies. Press reports of Marshall Fahim's and Rabbani's vehicle convoys' being attacked in Kunduz have contributed to the feeling of insecurity, even though evidence of an attack on Fahim's convoy is lacking and reports of an attack on Rabbani were debunked. Despite a lull in security incidents in recent days, it seems a virtual certainty that the poor security situation in the province will depress voter turnout. RC-SOUTH --ZABUL: IED found and cleared in polling center in Shajoy District. RC-EAST --GHAZNI: The Ghazni-based representatives of 9 Presidential candidates and 2 Provincial Council Candidates visited the PRT the morning of August 19 to voice concerns about the integrity of the pols in 12 districts of Ghazni (Rashidan, Zanakhan, Andar, Ajiristan, Aband, Qarabagh, Giro, Gelan, Khogani, Nawa- where there are no polling stations, Moqur, and Waghez). The campaign representatives told us that the security situation severely complicated voting efforts in these districts, and they worried that voters would either be disenfranchised or that the vote counts in these areas could be manipulated. NURISTAN: The attacks of anti-Afghan forces have limited opportunities to go to the polls in Kamdesh and Waygul districts, and shut out ballot delivery in Mandol district, with an estimated 6,000 voters. Hafiz Sultan, representing the four-valley shura of Parun, on 19 August said security in Parun is good. --KHOST: Early August 19, an ANP truck struck an IED in Dwamanda District - 1 KIA, 3WIA. There were elections materials on board the truck, but they have been secured and the mission is continuing to deliver them. IED are fairly common in Khost, so it is unclear if the elections convoy was specifically targeted. According to the PEO, the truck company contracted by the Independent Election Commission (IEC),to move move elections materials out of the Dwamanda Distict Center to the actual polling centers is reluctant to do so. The PEO is working to get ANA escort to move the materials. -------------- Fraud Issues -------------- ¶4. (SBU) No substantiated claims of fraud were logged with with the ECC today. However, PRT contacts reported on the Karzai campaign's ongoing efforts to influence voters in Helmand. Regional and Provincial reporting follows: RC-SOUTH --HELMAND: Some campaigns continue to be active despite the 48 hour ban on electioneering, with several PC candidates giving lunches and dinners today at their residences. Sher Muhammad Akhunzada (SMA) and Amir Muhammad Akhunzada (AMA) continue to actively court support for Karzai by meeting with government officials, tribal elders and mullahs. The Karzai-connected heavies (SMA, AMA, mullahs, etc) are telling people that Karzai will win anyway so it's good for them to vote for him. PRT Helmand's contacts report further that Pro-Karzai heavyweight Sher Mohammad Akhunzada has placed allies as IEC polling center workers in a handful of polling centers close to Lashkar Gah. No independent observers will go to these polling stations since they're not safe areas, at least raising the prospect of fraud. RC-EAST --PAKTIKA: Roullah Muslimyar, of Paktika's ECC, affirmed that all campaign activity in Paktika had ceased on time. He noted, however, that an unofficial complaint had been recently sent to the ECC-Kabul office. Since the complaint was not filed officially (via an in-person visit to ECC offices and the completion of paperwork) the complaint, of unknown origin and topic, will not be acted upon by the ECC. (Per reporting August 18, the ECC office in Paktika has never received an official complaint). --GHAZNI: Several of the representatives cited unspecified instances of pre-election fraud and malfeasance by sub-governors, but could not provide concrete examples when pressed. They also said that they "knew" several DFCs had abandoned their posts in insecure districts, and left all election materials in the custody of the ANA and ANP. The representatives requested that coalition assets transport campaign-affiliated election observers to 144 polling stations in these districts and suggested that polling centers with no observers should be closed. RC-WEST --HERAT: Local RTA evening news Aug 18 featured the Provincial Election Officer in a five-minute interview reassuring voters that procedures were in place to prevent fraud. Among other things he discussed were the finger dipping in ink and posting of the results at each polling station at the end of the counting. He also reassured viewers on election day security. -------------- Atmospherics -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) spokesperson Mohammad Noor claimed in a press conference August 19 that the IEC has registered a total of 17 million voters, of whom 15 million might actually vote. Noor noted that in 2004, 6 million out of 11 million registered voters turned out. However, embassy local staff and others assert that voter motivation this year is lower than in ¶2004. ¶6. (SBU) In interactions with western diplomats, several major political parties' representatives have expressed confidence in the process and in IEC's role. Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan (Ghilzai-Pashtun, Islamist),Hizb-e-Wahidat (Shi'a, Hazara), Hizb-e-Junbesh (Uzbek),all support (and anticipate) President Karzai's re-election. Only Hizb-e-Islami's representative anticipated a second-round. ¶7. (SBU) Regional reporting from key regions and provinces follows: RC-SOUTH --HELMAND: Lashkar Gah is relatively quiet but tense today. As of 2pm this afternoon all roads leading into Lashkar Gah were closed to vehicle traffic (open to pedestrians and vehicles with passes); roads within the city also have checkpoints and are closed to vehicles. Residents tell us they are worried about attacks tomorrow - particularly suicide attacks or IEDs in town. Most Afghans we talk to do not expect high voter turnout, due to both intimidation and voter apathy. Our PRT political specialist thinks that one bombing today or tomorrow would scare off all voters in town. RC-EAST --NURISTAN: Nuristan's voters will have uneven access to their franchise on voting day. Popular enthusiasm appears high and Nuristanis have organized themselves to protect their right to vote --GARDEZ: On August 19, PRT Gardez reached by phone five of the province's thirteen district governors to discuss tomorrow's elections. Overall, these district governors have reported a stable situation in the region and that the ANSF are providing security. --HERAT: National Day: Brad attended the event at Governor Nuristani's compound (notably absent was the Italian PRT Commander, who likely stayed away for security reasons). Nuristani spoke briefly; he encouraged people to exercise their right to vote. He was followed by Ismail Khan who spoke for more than an hour. Notably, Ismail Khan made no mention of Karzai in the speech and his only reference to elections was to say it is fine to campaign but no one has the right to bad mouth the mujahadeen. Khan started by recounting Afghan history, then dove into many negative comments about the coalition; he told the audience there would be no peace until every last foreigner left Afghanistan. While he did not say positive things about local troublemaker Ghulam Yahya Siwashani (AKA Akbari),some of his remarks seemed to be sympathetic to him. Brad remarked that the speech was a typical mujahadeen speech and Khan, an excellent orator who spoke without notes, overdid it a bit with the audience that was a mix of those who support and those who do not support Khan. -------------- Public Affairs -------------- ¶8. (U) AFGHAN MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS In a statement issued today, Pajhwok Afghan News has rejected the order of the National Security Council released by the Foreign Affairs Ministry that forbids coverage or prediction of violence during tomorrow's election. Pajhwok states that such an order has no basis in the Afghan Constitution or the principles of democracy and added that the news agency will continue to serve the people in reporting on the elections. Radio Azadi and Pajhwok reported that the government of Afghanistan requested the media to refrain from broadcasting any incidence of violence during tomorrow's election. However, the Dari version of the statement released by Ministry of Foreign Affairs is more clear on the point that it is seriously forbidden to report and publish photographs on violence, or to predict that there will be attacks. Radio Killid and Pajhwok News agency reported that Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, in an interview with MSNBC on Tuesday, accused the President Karzai of using the government machinery to his advantage. He added that the process has been unfair right from the beginning. According to these outlets, people didn't expect President Karzai to perform better on this issue because his history of violating the constitution. "How can one then expect him to abide by the electoral law?" Radio BBC and Tolo TV reported that the U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has urged all Afghan women and men eligible to vote to cast their ballot in Thursday's presidential and provincial council elections. In a statement released by the U.N. Spokesperson, the Secretary-General also calls on all candidates, their supporters, political party agents, and domestic and international observers to continue to cooperate with the Independent Election Commission, other relevant Afghan institutions, and international stakeholders supporting electoral preparations to ensure a smooth and successful electoral process. Shamshad TV reported that a district chief was killed along with a tribal elder as their vehicle hit a roadside IED in Ragi district of Kandahar province. Pajhwok News Agency reported that the IEC head for the southern zone told the reporter that more than 150 of the 643 proposed polling centers to be set up in the southern zone, which comprises five provinces, will stay closed on Election Day for security reasons. The 150 proposed polling centers are located in the restive districts of Kandahar, Helmand, Uruzgan, Zabul and Nimroz province. Meanwhile, the IEC announced that all 2,835 polling centers in the eastern zone, where election materials have already been shifted, will remain open on Thursday. Radio Azadi and Salam Watandar reported that around 75 armed militants, including a commander, joined the Afghan government peace and reconciliation process on the occasion of Afghanistan's 90th independence anniversary from Britain in central Maidan Wardak province. Radio Azadi reported on the deaths of two IEC employees by an IED explosion in the Shurabak district of Kandahar province today. Meanwhile, in a separate incident, four IEC employees were killed by an IED explosion in Badakhshan province. Pajhwok News Agency reported that the IEC chief in Ghazni, Abdul Bari Rahimi, said that 33 polling centers could not be opened due to insecurity in the province. Pajhwok News Agency reported that former Afghan Interior Minister Ali Ahmad Jalali called on his followers to vote for President Karzai. ¶9. (SBU) MESSAGING: The U.S. has been working to support credible, secure, and inclusive elections that are seen by the Afghan people and international community as legitimate. The U.S. does not support or oppose any candidate in the upcoming elections in Afghanistan. We are impartial. Only the Afghans will decide if the elections are credible and secure. We'll be watching closely as the voting and election unfold. The U.S. is funding over 360 observers from independent international NGOs and from Embassy Kabul to observe the process. These U.S. funded observers will be present in 27 of Afghanistan's 32 provinces. The Government of Afghanistan is the lead for election security, with over 160,000 police and army soldiers manning polling stations and travel routes. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) along with U.S. forces provide support security for the Afghan forces. ISAF and USFOR-A have made the elections their primary mission and are working closely with their Afghan partners to enable the election day events. We are aware of the Afghan Government's statements calling on all media to refrain from publishing any incidents of violence during election day. While we recognize the sovereign rights of the Afghan Government and note their intention to encourage Afghans to turn out and vote, we believe that free media reporting is directly linked to the credibility of the elections and continue to support both the freedom of the press and responsible reporting. EIKENBERRY