AFGHAN ELECTIONS: MEDIA BAN FALLOUT, AFGHAN VOTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002426 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: MEDIA BAN FALLOUT, AFGHAN VOTER RESILIENCE REF: A. KABUL 2419 ¶B. KABUL 2040 ¶C. KABUL 2405 ¶D. KABUL 2366 ¶E. KABUL 2334 ¶1. (SBU) The Afghan government has instructed all media to refrain from reporting any "terrorist activities or movements" on elections Day. Only two Afghan outlets have reported on the ban, Radio Azadi and Pajhwok. Privately Afghan journalists say they will continue to report on terrorist attacks, noting the ban is not enforceable. Two Tolo television journalists were temporarily detained by the National Security Agency (NSA) forces August 19 for reporting on the Taliban attack at a bank in Kabul, suggesting Karzai,s government may be singling out the Afghan media. The ban, for those who hear of it, could generate more fear and discourage voter turnout. If the local press attacks Karzai for the ban as the international press has, he may lose some of his momentum (ref A). Regardless, Afghans show some signs of resilience in the face of violence--although voting will remain uneven in the most dangerous provinces. -------------- Political Fallout of Media Blackout -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On August 19, the Foreign Ministry and the Interior Ministry issued statements calling on a media ban on any incidence of violence on elections day August 20 from 6 a.m. - 8 p.m. The initial Dari version of the announcement said it was "strictly forbidden," whereas the English version was a "request," likely demonstrating the government may crack down harder on national media, where journalists will be more susceptible to intimidation. Two Tolo television journalists were temporarily detained a day before the supposed blackout, August 19. Tolo journalists said "the Afghan NSA did not want us repotin on the breaking news of the Taliban attacks on the bank in Kabul." They were released, and reported no abuse. However, many interlocutors believe this was a strategic warning to the national press to abide by the ban, even a day early. ¶3. (SBU) Despite the ban, most media outlets tell us they will continue to report on terrorist attacks, noting that it is their responsibility to give the Afghan people accurate information, and that the Afghan government has no formal means to enforce the ban. The Afghan press, aside from Radio Azadi and Pajhwok, has not reported on the ban thus far. If Karzai starts to receive bad national press on the evening news--so far it has been primarily international--this may affect his campaign. Also, if the media indeed continues to report on the violence, Karzai could lose support from Pashtun votes in the most dangerous southern and eastern provinces, as voters are dissuaded from going to the polls by numerous, widely-publicized attacks on voting day. The talk of the ban itself could also dissuade voters, as they will not have information on attacks, and therefore may opt to stay home. -------------- Voter Resilience Continues -------------- ¶4. (SBU) August 19 Independence Day celebrations continued on schedule in Kabul and in the Central Hazarajaat, as well s most of the north. The size of the celebrations, as reported by the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs), appeared to mirror the security map of Afghanistan, with no celebrations in the most dangerous provinces. The Paktika Governor's Office told us there would be no Independence Day celebrations due to security concerns and the deployment of Afghan National Security Forces to polling stations. Paktia district governors told us that, despite the Taliban's night letters warning the people to not vote, the people "are prepared to vote tomorrow." In Nuristan government officials said , "the people are organizing themselves to protect their right to vote." ¶5. (SBU) Many interlocutors tell us Afghan voters are increasing disillusioned with the democratic process, predicting that voter turn-out will not reach the 75% range it did in the 2004 presidential elections. Female MPs and university students have told us that the female and youth votes will likely decrease, due in part to this disillusionment. Further, the impact of the historic recent presidential debates (ref A, B),and the increase in the perception among the Afghan people that this time, more than the last, the United States is impartial, remains to be seen. ¶6. (SBU) Note: the Embassy is preparing talking points on the media ban, and has raised the issue with the Presidential Palace. Senior Palace Representatives responded that they will "clarify" what was meant by the press releases, and that all they wanted was for the media to report "responsibly." EIKENBERRY