BADGHIS: THE REAL ELECTION MAY BE WON BEHIND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002417 SIPDIS STATE FOR SRAP HOLBROOKE; SCA/FO; SCA/A USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KDEM AF SP SUBJECT: BADGHIS: THE REAL ELECTION MAY BE WON BEHIND THE SCENES Classified By: IPA Deputy Coordinator Hoyt Yee, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Candidate Karzai is rumored to be making several deals in Badghis Province in order to gain Pashto votes, including payments to insurgents, release of insurgents from jail and use of official offices to campaign. Meanwhile, Deputy Provincial Election Officer (PEO) Malawi Osman Haqtalab has expressed coQerns that his boss is not acting in the interest of full transparency in the elections. Large swaths of ungoverned territory, if not managed by the IEC, could be breeding grounds for fraud on election day. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Public speculation has grown in recent weeks in the northwestern province of Badghis that President Karzai has made payments to insurgents in Bala Murghab, a district in Badghis, in exchange for a promise not to disrupt voting on August 20. Also part of the deal will be the release of several insurgents from jails in Qal-e Now, Herat, and Kabul prior to August 20. Those reportedly under consideration are listed in para 5 below. During a private meeting in Bala Murghab on August 9, State PRT Rep told IDLG Director Popal that the release of convicted insurgents would be disappointing. Popal took down the names and told PRT rep the individuals would not be released. Reports of Karzai's use of official offices to campaign abound. For example, local NDS contact showed State PRT rep two letters from Karzai's office directing the Badghis governor's office to provide a vehicle for the campaign. ¶3. (SBU) Badghis Deputy Provincial Election Officer (PEO) Malawi Osman Haqtalab claims to be at odds with his boss, Ishaqzai, over the distribution of materials and other elections preparations. Haqtalab complained at length to State PRT representative claiming nepotism and lack of representative tribal distribution in hiring. Though his complaints were many, he appeared genuinely concerned about lack of transparency, especially in insecure areas controlled by Taliban, which will not benefit from Afghan security forces, IEC officials, or official observers. Some of his sentiments were echoed by Ghulam Hazrat Khan, the leader of the Mosazai tribe in Bala Murghab. He complained to the Badghis PEO that the IEC does not consider the ethnic breakdown in the hiring of the District Field Coordinators (FDCs). All DRCs for Bala Murghab are from the Sini Pastun tribe. PEO Ishaqzai defended this decision as necessary to combat insecurity in the area but claims the IEC will hire more people representing other tribes of the region prior to the election. Khan requested a resolution to this issue during a larger subsequent meeting with Bala Murghab's District Regional Coordinator, Abdul Rauf Khan. As a result, a larger meeting is planned on August 12 or 14, with the participation of all elders in Bala Murghab. Wakil Jailan, the Sini tribe leader, noted the elders would discuss preferred candidates for Presidential and PC elections. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: Bala Murghab is a lawless district with virtually no government presence. If polling centers are opened in Bala Murghab outside the security bubble, wide-scale election fraud is all but certain. Illiterate IEC personnel (and zero female staff) who are of the same ethnicity and same "Sini" tribe would likely bend to the whims of Taliban in the area rather than upholding IEC standards for transparency. However, pressure to have polling centers in that district may outweigh a desire for standard polling procedures. ¶5. (C) Convicted insurgents possibly being pardoned by Karzai before election day: - Sharafadin: A Pashtun jailed in Qal-e Now, he was injured in an attack on a PRT/ANSF convoy to Jawand in October 2008 that was escorting World Food Program trucks to the district center. - Nazar Mohammad: A Pashtun jailed in Qal-e Now, Mohammad was convicted of launching RPGs at the Spanish PRT compound in September 2008 and issuing 18 threatening night letters. His sentence is 16 years incarceration. - Sahid Hamad Shah: A religious man from Gargach village in Moqur District of Badghis, he attacked ANP headquarters twice (in 2007 and 2008) with hand grenades. Those attacks resulted in five injured ANP and one death. His sentence is 16 years incarceration. - Abdul Wasi: From Laman in Qal-e Now, he is a Pashtun who KABUL 00002417 002 OF 002 lives among other ethnicities. Wasi is an associate of Sia Khan (Mullah Kasadin),the insurgent thought to be responsible for multiple attacks on Sabzak Pass in recent months. He was sentenced to 12 years incarceration, and was arrested in early 2009 during an ANP sting operation at a checkpoint. - Ayub: From Kolaghai village of Bala Murgab, he was sentenced to 10 years for drug smuggling. - Khan Azrat: A resident of Herat, Azrat is originally from Bala Murghab. He was arrested with a stash of remote-controlled devices and communication equipment and is believed to be a communication equipment supplier to Badghis' Taliban shadow governor, Mullah Ismael. He was arrested in June in Herat. Mullah Ismael reportedly has made Azrat's release a priority. Jelani Popal told State PRT rep August 9 that Mullah Badar, head of an IDLG delegation recently in the province to negotiate a peace settlement, asked Popal to pressure Karzai for Azrat's release. - Qaiyum Kamal: A Pasthun from Koaghai village (Bala Murghab),he is a drug smuggler serving a 10-year prison sentence. EIKENBERRY