BADGHIS: THE REAL ELECTION MAY BE WON BEHIND THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002417

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SRAP HOLBROOKE; SCA/FO; SCA/A
USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER KDEM AF SP
SUBJECT: BADGHIS: THE REAL ELECTION MAY BE WON BEHIND THE
SCENES

Classified By: IPA Deputy Coordinator Hoyt Yee,
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: Candidate Karzai is rumored to be making
several deals in Badghis Province in order to gain Pashto
votes, including payments to insurgents, release of
insurgents from jail and use of official offices to
campaign. Meanwhile, Deputy Provincial Election Officer
(PEO) Malawi Osman Haqtalab has expressed coQerns that his
boss is not acting in the interest of full transparency in
the elections. Large swaths of ungoverned territory, if
not managed by the IEC, could be breeding grounds for fraud
on election day. End Summary.


2. (C) Public speculation has grown in recent weeks in
the northwestern province of Badghis that President Karzai
has made payments to insurgents in Bala Murghab, a district
in Badghis, in exchange for a promise not to disrupt voting
on August 20. Also part of the deal will be the release of
several insurgents from jails in Qal-e Now, Herat, and Kabul
prior to August 20. Those reportedly under consideration are
listed in para 5 below. During a private meeting in Bala
Murghab on August 9, State PRT Rep told IDLG Director Popal
that the release of convicted insurgents would be disappointing.
Popal took down the names and told PRT rep the individuals
would not be released. Reports of Karzai's use of official
offices to campaign abound. For example, local NDS contact
showed State PRT rep two letters from Karzai's office
directing the Badghis governor's office to provide a
vehicle for the campaign.


3. (SBU) Badghis Deputy Provincial Election Officer (PEO)
Malawi Osman Haqtalab claims to be at odds with his boss,
Ishaqzai, over the distribution of materials and other
elections preparations. Haqtalab complained at length to
State PRT representative claiming nepotism and lack of
representative tribal distribution in hiring. Though his
complaints were many, he appeared genuinely concerned about
lack of transparency, especially in insecure areas
controlled by Taliban, which will not benefit from Afghan
security forces, IEC officials, or official observers.
Some of his sentiments were echoed by Ghulam Hazrat Khan,
the leader of the Mosazai tribe in Bala Murghab. He
complained to the Badghis PEO that the IEC does not
consider the ethnic breakdown in the hiring of the District
Field Coordinators (FDCs). All DRCs for Bala Murghab are
from the Sini Pastun tribe. PEO Ishaqzai defended this
decision as necessary to combat insecurity in the area but
claims the IEC will hire more people representing other
tribes of the region prior to the election. Khan requested a
resolution to this issue during a larger subsequent meeting
with Bala Murghab's District Regional Coordinator, Abdul
Rauf Khan. As a result, a larger meeting is planned on
August 12 or 14, with the participation of all elders in
Bala Murghab. Wakil Jailan, the Sini tribe leader, noted
the elders would discuss preferred candidates for
Presidential and PC elections.


4. (SBU) Comment: Bala Murghab is a lawless district with
virtually no government presence. If polling centers are
opened in Bala Murghab outside the security bubble,
wide-scale election fraud is all but certain. Illiterate IEC
personnel (and zero female staff) who are of the same
ethnicity and same "Sini" tribe would likely bend to the
whims of Taliban in the area rather than upholding IEC
standards for transparency. However, pressure to have
polling centers in that district may outweigh a desire for
standard polling procedures.


5. (C) Convicted insurgents possibly being pardoned by
Karzai before election day:

- Sharafadin: A Pashtun jailed in Qal-e Now, he was injured
in an attack on a PRT/ANSF convoy to Jawand in October 2008
that was escorting World Food Program trucks to the
district center.

- Nazar Mohammad: A Pashtun jailed in Qal-e Now, Mohammad
was convicted of launching RPGs at the Spanish PRT compound
in September 2008 and issuing 18 threatening night
letters. His sentence is 16 years incarceration.

- Sahid Hamad Shah: A religious man from Gargach village
in Moqur District of Badghis, he attacked ANP headquarters
twice (in 2007 and 2008) with hand grenades. Those attacks
resulted in five injured ANP and one death. His sentence
is 16 years incarceration.

- Abdul Wasi: From Laman in Qal-e Now, he is a Pashtun who

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lives among other ethnicities. Wasi is an associate of Sia
Khan (Mullah Kasadin),the insurgent thought to be
responsible for multiple attacks on Sabzak Pass in recent
months. He was sentenced to 12 years incarceration, and was
arrested in early 2009 during an ANP sting operation at a
checkpoint.

- Ayub: From Kolaghai village of Bala Murgab, he was
sentenced to 10 years for drug smuggling.

- Khan Azrat: A resident of Herat, Azrat is originally
from Bala Murghab. He was arrested with a stash of
remote-controlled devices and communication equipment and
is believed to be a communication equipment supplier to
Badghis' Taliban shadow governor, Mullah Ismael. He was
arrested in June in Herat. Mullah Ismael reportedly has
made Azrat's release a priority. Jelani Popal told State
PRT rep August 9 that Mullah Badar, head of an IDLG
delegation recently in the province to negotiate a peace
settlement, asked Popal to pressure Karzai for Azrat's
release.

- Qaiyum Kamal: A Pasthun from Koaghai village (Bala
Murghab),he is a drug smuggler serving a 10-year prison
sentence.
EIKENBERRY