ASHRAF GHANI ON EVENTS

UNCLAS KABUL 002399 DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR AF SUBJECT: ASHRAF GHANI ON EVENTS ¶1. (SBU) Presidential candidate Ashraf Ghani initially raised issues of process in discussion with U.S. Election Team Head Tim Carney 16 August. He contended that MOD aircraft are available on a spotty basis and argued that his formal complaints go ignored. He was surprised to learn that the Electoral Complaints Commission actually decided against President Karzai's running mate on abuse of MOD helicopter assets and fined him 75,000 Afghanis that the offender paid on 13 August. He expressed fear that ballot boxes will be stuffed in, for example, Helmand where false women's voter registration cards will justify numbers of ballots stuffed in boxes held in some houses to be placed in polling stations. Carney pointed out that the IEC and ECC are aware of previous such fraud from 2005 polls and plans random audits, especially in areas of earlier fraud. ¶2. Some key political points: -- He has dropped the notion of an op-ed as it would not be understood, acknowledging Ambassador Eikenberry's arguments against doing what he had earlier outlined. -- Ghani was delighted with his reception 15 August in Kandahar where several thousand waited in the sun for his tardy arrival. He believes that his, and rival Abdullah Abdullah's, successful rallies in Kandahar demonstrate the paucity of President Karzai's support. NOTE: Ghani called the morning of 16 August from Nangaghar that his security organizer for the Kandahar trip had been assassinated 16 August. No arrests have been made. END NOTE. -- At the same time, he is looking to a future role, "taking himself out of political running and mediating/brainstorming as an analyst and committed patriot." -- He reaffirmed that he will not join any other campaign before polling deal, arguing that it would betray his hard-working supporters. -- His worries about election-related violence continue to grow in two aspects: first, is that the Taliban may target UNAMA to cause the Secretary-General's staff to force withdrawal of the UN mission. On violence between candidate supporters, he categorically stated his willingness to do the necessary to dampen such violence. He is willing to make public statements; appear with SRSG Kai Eide; or appear with any set of other candidates to speak out against it. ¶3. (SBU) He was disappointed that Dr. Abdullah refused to join in a 16 August roundtable/debate on RTA and urged that the international community try to change Abdullah's mind. Ghani told us he had refused to join the debate with Karzai and Basherdost, but clearly changed his mind, appearing with the two the evening of 16 August (septel). He noted the morning of 17 August that he believed he had done well. EIKENBERRY