AFGHAN ELECTIONS: NEGATIVE PUBLIC PERCEPTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 002295 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF SUBJECT: AFGHAN ELECTIONS: NEGATIVE PUBLIC PERCEPTION OVERSHADOWS FRAUD SAFEGUARDS REF: A. KABUL 2018 ¶B. KABUL 2019 ¶C. KABUL 1902 ¶D. KABUL 2238 ¶E. KABUL 993 ¶F. KABUL 1466 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With just over two weeks remaining until the August 20 presidential and provincial council elections, concerns about fraud have recently exploded into the public consciousness. Many factors have contributed to this issue, including reports of a reduction in the total number of polling centers that will open, and inflammatory public statements by candidates. The largest contributing factors are the Independent Election Commission's (IEC) limited public outreach to explain the safeguards in place against fraud and the negative public opinion of the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) and its effectiveness. The frequently reported media perception that the elections will not be free and transparent now potentially poses a greater threat to the legitimacy of the results than any actual fraud. See septel for the steps the ECC is making to improve the public perception. End Summary. -------------- Lack of Transparency... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) A May 25 German-funded poll revealed that only 32% of respondents believed the election would be transparent. This lack of trust in the electoral system has been reflected recently in numerous media reports, as well as from MPs, other candidates, and civil society. The Parliament summoned officials from the IEC on August 8 to hear about preparations for the elections and fraud prevention tactics, noting their concern over interference by Afghan government officials in the elections. Presidential candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah held a press conference the same day calling on the Ministry of Interior to investigate the deaths of his elections supporters and said the government had failed to ensure security for the presidential candidates and their campaign managers. A group of Kabul University students voiced concern that outside powers, politicians, and warlords would control the elections, noting this disillusion would lead to a lower voter turn out, especially among the youth. ¶3. (SBU) Nearly every candidate has raised concerns about electoral fraud. The amorphous "coalition" of minor candidates (ref A) that has thus far failed to produce a consensus candidate, raised consistent concerns about the lack of transparency on August 4. Major and minor candidates alike have expressed concern about the potential of fraud - from Sayed Jalal's claim that 6,000 ballot boxes are waiting, pre-stuffed, and will be distributed on election day to win the day for Karzai, to the subtler allegations of illicit campaign finance contributions flowing into Abdullah's coffers from Iran, to reports that Afghan currency had depreciated by 7% due to the large influx of foreign funds used to support campaigns. -------------- ...Increases the Possibility of Violence -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Early August remarks attributed to senior Abdullah Campaign Advisor Abdul Satar Muran suggested that a Karzai victory could only be reached by fraud and would be met by violence. Although Abdullah and Muran denied the most inflammatory statements such as "the people rising up with kalishnakovs," Muran told us protests would take place if the people thought widespread fraud led to a false election result. MP Sayed Ishaq Gailani (Abdullah supporter) and his cousin, MP Hamed Gailani (Karzai supporter) told us separately that violence is a real possibility after the elections, if the population believes that widespread fraud was used to produce the election result. -------------- Poor Public Outreach & Unclear Changes -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The IEC, with the technical support of UNDP and the international community, has instituted a fairly robust set of electoral safeguards (ref B). However, an imperfect voter registry has provided the basis for fears of proxy voting and "ghost" voters using fraudulent voter registration cards - particularly for women. Although Afghan law and IEC regulations prohibit proxy voting, its prevention will ultimately lie with the integrity of polling center workers and their accurate understanding of the process; two factors KABUL 00002295 002 OF 002 that cannot be predetermined. ¶6. (SBU) Monitoring of potential fraud then falls to observers - international and domestic - and candidate and party agents (ref C). In recent days several candidates have complained to us that the IEC is not adequately staffed to process candidate's requests for accreditation by their agents. On August 2, Abdullah voiced concern that only 6,000 of the 11,000 agents for whom his campaign had submitted registration had been accredited by the IEC (ref D). The elections team is working with the IEC to streamline the process for this procedure. Observation may diminish the scale of fraud, but we doubt enough observers and candidate agents will be in place to suppress all such incidents. -------------- Weak ECC Fans Fears of Fraud -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Due to lack of public trust in the judicial system, the electoral law requires the establishment of the ECC for each electoral cycle. The ECC exists as an independent body to investigate complaints against candidates and implement appropriate punitive measures (ref E). However, the ECC has operated out of step with the electoral timeline. Although moderately successful in eliminating candidates with DIA connections during the challenge period (ref F) - with its late constitution, slow establishment of provincial offices and minimal public outreach it has so far failed to prove itself as a regulating factor in the electoral process. See septel for the steps the ECC is making to improve the public perception related to fraud, with our support. ¶8. (SBU) With only two weeks remaining until voting day, the ECC has received around 280 candidate complaints. Unfortunately, its successes - the elimination of two provincial council candidates who had not resigned from government appointments as required by the electoral law - are overshadowed by presidential candidates' nearly constant allegations to us and to the media that the ECC is not responding to their election law complaints. The ECC has a responsibility to weed-out complaints that do not meet the standard and parameters set by the electoral law - a problem that occurs even in complaints made by major opposition candidates. However, the ECC's unresponsiveness in informing the public and individuals as to the status of filed complaints decreases its ability to control the process and its message. In an August 2 public meeting, the IEC told donors that the ECC had not taken action on complaints filed regarding the failure of certain candidates to submit required campaign finance documents. ¶9. (SBU) The ECC anticipates it will receive around 4,000 complaints in the immediate aftermath of the election. Many of those will likely not meet the required standard of evidence or fall outside the limited parameters of the ECC's mandate. However, without improved public outreach and a feedback loop providing information on the status of filed complaints, the ECC's work will continue to be overshadowed by negative perceptions. EIKENBERRY