CREATION OF NEW AFGHAN "COUNCIL OF MINORITIES"

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 002244 E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER USAID AF SUBJECT: CREATION OF NEW AFGHAN "COUNCIL OF MINORITIES" Classified By: Political Counselor Ann E. Pforzheimer for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Representatives of four minority ethnic communities in Afghanistan (the Babar, the Baluch, the Bayat, and the Hazaras) met with Embassy representatives on July 21st to announce the formation of a new organization to represent minority communities in Afghanistan. The group, which claims to represent between 32 and 34 minority tribes, is in its initial stages of being founded, and has as its goal the eventual formation of a political party to push for minority community rights. The Council has not chosen a candidate in the 2009 elections, though they have been approached as a group by each of the major candidates in the election. The Council intends to support a single presidential candidate in 2014 who will represent minority interests. End Summary. New Group Formed to Represent Minority Interests -------------- --- ¶2. (C) The four representatives (Abdul Ghafar Babur - Chief of the Babar Tribal Council from Konduz; Khodai Nazar Saramchar - founder of the Foundation for Baluch Council and MP from Nimroz; Mohammad Anwar Bayat - founder of Bayat Council and current representative to GIRoA from Western Kabul; and Ali Akbar Mahmoodi - leader of smaller civil societies and Hazara tribal elder from Uruzgan) claimed to represent between 32 and 34 minority tribes across Afghanistan. They said they were in the early stages of forming their group, though they intended to make it into a political party to pursue minority rights. ¶3. (C) Despite being in the early stages of their existence as a group, they reported they had already been approached by each of the leading presidential candidates (Karzai, Abdullah, Ghani and Yasini),as well as some of the minor ones. The Council had not yet decided which candidate to endorse, but said their determination would be based on which candidate would be support minority rights in Afghanistan. The price of their support, they said, would only be in terms of "rights" for minority groups in Afghanistan (they did not specify what rights they referred to),rather than cabinet positions, ministerial posts, or jobs. Lack of Recognition of Ethnic and Tribal Minorities Leaves Room for Opposition to Create Divisions -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Ali Mahmoodi said there were two aspects of Afghan society around which the whole society revolved: tribal relations and religious affiliations. Mahmoodi noted that Arts. 31 and 30 of the Afghan constitution explicitly recognize two major religious groups in Afghanistan - the Sunnis and the Shi'as. This recognition, he said, defused the issue of religious differences, since both were recognized as valid. Because of the loss of the issue of religious division, those Ulema opposed to the democratic government turned instead to tribal and ethnic differences as the way to cause divisions and strife among the Afghans and weaken the government. There was no recognition of tribal issues and groups in the constitution, he said. The constitution did nothing to bolster the tribes, and instead caused the tribal structure to be weakened. ¶5. (C) The constitution, he continued, also did nothing to recognize the various ethnic groups of the nation. (Note: This is not totally accurate. Art. 4 expressly recognizes Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Turkman, Baluch, Pachaie, Nuristanis, Aymaqs, Arabs, Qirghiz, Qizilbash, Gujur, Brahwui and "other tribes" as being Afghans. Though the constitution does not appear to grant any specific status to the ethnic groups, it does not deny any group citizenship status either. End Note) The minority communities, he said, are demanding the right to participate in the government, though no candidate in the current election has promised specific ways for minority groups to participate. The representatives were concerned about the unwillingness of the candidates to say what benefit the minority groups could expect to receive for providing support to their candidacies. Why Can Only Pashtuns Be President? -------------- ¶6. (C) Abdul Ghafar Babur expressed his frustration at the common belief that only Pashtuns should be considered for the presidency or for a possible prime-ministership. He believed that with the help of pressure from the International Community (IC),minority groups could be empowered to achieve high offices in GIRoA despite the relative power of Pashtun numbers. He did not assert that the law prohibited a non-Pashtun president, but argued - correctly - that many assumed a Pashtun would have to be president for the foreseeable future for historical continuity and to appease Pashtuns. Appeal to the U.S. -------------- ¶7. (U) The group expressed its goals they said were in common with the USG, such as promotion of democracy, women's rights, and minority rights, then asked for financial support. ¶8. (C) Only days after our meeting with the Council of Minorities, the group apparently had a falling out over whom to support in the 2009 election, resulting in a split of support between Abdullah Abdullah and Karzai. Though the group has since reconciled and pledged to work together, they have not chosen a single candidate to support. ¶9. (C) If the group were able to effectively organize and coordinate their efforts, they could be a reasonably powerful force: if they could really control the tribes they claim to represent, and could convince them to vote as a block, they could actually have a great deal of influence, controlling anywhere from 11 - 15% of the vote. They would not have enough power to win an election outright, with a great deal of bargaining power. Post will continue to follow the developments surrounding this group to determine whether they are able to firmly establish themselves after this election. EIKENBERRY