ABDULLAH ENERGIZED ABOUT CAMPAIGN, WORKING FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001914

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL AF
SUBJECT: ABDULLAH ENERGIZED ABOUT CAMPAIGN, WORKING FOR
SECOND ROUND

REF: A. KABUL 1521

B. KABUL 1647

C. KABUL 1849

Classified By: Classified by Ambassador Karl Eikenberry
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On July 14, Ambassador Eikenberry met
with presidential candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah to discuss
the state of the presidential campaign. Invigorated by his
trips to the provinces and boasting an ambitious travel
schedule for the next few weeks, Abdullah expounded on his
campaign plans, speculated about President Karzai's
intentions and discussed his vision for an Abdullah
administration. He expanded on his previously stated
platform of decentralization (refs A and B),noting that
Afghanistan's window of opportunity to make use of
international community support is narrowing. He was hopeful
about pushing the election to a second round and optimistic
about his performance should that occur. The Ambassador
emphasized the importance of a partnership between the
international community and a new administration and the
pillars on which the future relationship would be based. End
Summary.

--------------
Campaigning in the Provinces
--------------


2. (SBU) Arriving at lunch directly from a campaign stop in
Ghor's provincial capital of Chaghcharan, Abdullah reported
no difficulties in coordinating Afghan National Army (ANA)
air support, providing sufficient notice is given to ANA
authorities. Chaghcharan was his fourth campaign trip using
ANA aircraft; in the past weeks he has visited Jalalabad,
Uruzgan and Badakhshan, where ANA provided air support not
only to the province but between districts. ANA has denied
only one of Abdullah's travel requests, which he admitted to
putting in only 12 hours in advance. He found the denial
reasonable given the lack of lead time.


3. (SBU) Abdullah said he plans to visit Herat, Bamyan,
Faryab, Paktya, Kunar, Nuristan and Laghman and hopes to get
to both Helmand and Kandahar in the coming weeks, but will
visit at least one of the two. He was pleased with the level
of supporter turnout he'd seen so far. In Jalalabad he
claimed 15,000-20,000 supporters had turned out for a rally,
although Nangarhar Governor Shirzai was absent, and at least
3,000 people at each of the five Badakhshan locations he
visited. He recounted the story of a Badakhshan female
provincial council candidate who began campaigning for
Abdullah in a mosque as a show of spontaneous support.

--------------
Demographic Support
--------------


4. (SBU) Abdullah said he viewed his support through the
lens of demographics, rather than by regional strength.
Citing youth, women and mujahedeen as key support bases, he
described a student rally of a few thousand held on his
behalf by Kabul University students earlier in the week. He
was pleased by what he described as the "student-led
initiative," but said the Ministry of Interior had initially
said it could not provide Afghan National Police (ANP) to
support the event and only conceded an hour before the
planned start time when it was clear the event would continue
with or without the police.

--------------
Playing Politics with the Police?
--------------


5. (C) Ambassador Eikenberry raised the international
community's concern over Balkh Governor Atta's impolite
criticism of Karzai and interference in the dismissal of two
ANP officers (Ref C). He reinforced that the international
community must walk a fine line when it comes to tolerating
such behavior, which is not suitable. Abdullah admitted that
Atta had made inappropriate remarks and said he had advised
Atta, as a friend, that he should not continue to cross that
line. He countered that Karzai receives inappropriate
support from officials, and accused IDLG director Popal and
Minister of Education Farooq Wardak of campaigning in the
provinces. Abdullah noted Atta's view that the removal of
the ANP officers was purely political, with charges of
corruption coming only after the removal. He conceded the
MOI's right to move police positions, but asserted that
politics are playing a larger role than appropriate in some
changes, highlighting a recent replacement of the Panjshir
chief of police.


KABUL 00001914 002 OF 002


--------------
Abdullah's Platform & U.S. Relations
--------------


6. (SBU) The Ambassador emphasized that the United States
looks forward to a partnership with the new Afghan
government. He saw a focus on five areas of the relationship:
Afghan sovereignty, reconciliation, development of formal
governance, development of the justice sector and informal
governance, and a regional strategy. Abdullah commended the
US approach, identifying self-sufficiency for Afghanistan as
a top priority of his platform and improving public
perception of the government.


7. (SBU) Abdullah described the need to reform the justice
sector and improve governance, criticizing Karzai for placing
ethnic politics above good governance. Abdullah said he
would be willing to invite certain current well-qualified
ministers to stay in their positions, but did not know if
they would be willing to stay under his administration. He
accused Karzai of moving governors at random and asserted
that the governor system needs to be reviewed with integrity
and merit ranking top in qualifications. The people of the
province also need a voice in the process, including direct
election of governors.


8. (SBU) Abdullah expounded on the need to decentralize the
Afghan government and strengthen provincial and district
level decision makers. This would allow the people to have a
greater say in their own affairs and to feel connected with
the process of government. He acknowledged that detractors
say decentralization will fatally weaken the government, but
asserted that while a strong center remains important,
without evolution and devolution the Afghan government will
not survive. Abdullah supported moving to a parliamentary
system, saying the current system was given an opportunity
and now needs develop to prevent failure of the state.


9. (SBU) The Ambassador stressed the need for the next
administration to take advantage of the assistance offered to
Afghanistan by the international community. Abdullah
recognized that the new government must successfully partner
with the United States and the international community to
bring progress. He noted that without progress, the United
States would withdraw from Afghanistan and "we will never get
you back." He believed that if the U.S. withdrew without
significant improvement to the Afghan government, then
central government would flounder and Afghanistan would
become a failed state.

--------------
Media & Electoral Complaints
--------------


10. (SBU) Abdullah said that his campaign is filing daily
complaints to the Electoral Media Commission (EMC) regarding
the bias of state-run RTA television; a bias noted in the
EMC's July 9 press conference on election coverage. RTA's
bias was particularly evident in their coverage of Karzai's
July 13 trip to Kandahar. Abdullah welcomed taking advantage
of TOLO TV's proposed debate between Karzai, Abdullah and
Ashraf Ghani; Karzai is currently declining to participate.
Abdullah would consider participating without Karzai but
would prefer that he and Ghani receive questions from a
moderator and not engage each other in a debate.


11. (C) He also said he has filed complaints with the
Electoral Complaints Commission regarding Karzai's use of
state resources for his campaign. He expressed concern that
the Karzai campaign would try to influence the election
through fraud, but did not identify any specific methods for
concern. Another concern for campaign support is embodied by
the July 15 media report that the head of Abullah's campaign
in Nejrad district in Kapisa was shot and killed by an
unidentified gunman.
EIKENBERRY