Paktya: Presidential-PC Politics Intertwined

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001863

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: Paktya: Presidential-PC Politics Intertwined


1. (SBU) Summary: Provincial Council (PC) and presidential
campaigns are in full swing in Paktya. Given poor security in the
districts, most campaigning is occurring in the provincial capital
of Gardez. The majority of influential Paktyans say they will throw
their support behind President Karzai, as they are sure he will be
reelected, but few people are openly campaigning for him. The
current members of the PC are all running for reelection and are
pooling resources to gain votes. They have told PRT they plan to
step in to direct Karzai's provincial campaign, but only if the
President throws his support behind them. End Summary.


2. (U) PRT rep discussed the Provincial Council (PC) campaign on
July 8 with its three of its current members, who said they are
working together to get re-elected. The Paktyans' unified strategy
is consistent with the way politics is practiced in this
conservative and highly tribal part of the country. By contrast,
there is a less unified approach in Loya ("Greater") Paktya's other
two provinces, Khost and Paktika.


3. (U) Campaigning for both the PC and the presidential election is
taking place primarily in the provincial capital of Gardez, given
the security constraints and reportedly widespread insurgent
anti-election intimidation efforts outside the city. The PRT has
only seen campaign posters in Gardez. The PC members tell us they
are campaigning primarily by holding shuras in Gardez with tribal
elders from across the province, hoping those elders will take a
message of support back to their respective villages. One member
said that while the current PC feels it has let the people down in
some ways, it has done the best it could given its extremely limited
resources to represent peoples' interests. However, he asserted
that the performance of Paktya's PC has far exceeded those of most
other provinces, and that the PC has commendations from Kabul to
prove it.


4. (U) Given the low level of overt political activity and lack of
campaign headquarters, meeting with non-incumbent candidates is
extremely difficult. Even locally employed PRT staff say that many
of the PC candidates are "unknowns" to the political scene. Several
candidates have complained, however, that they do not feel
comfortable campaigning outside the capital. At least two
candidates from insurgent-filled Zormat district have reportedly
suspended their campaigns due to intimidation.


5. (U) More attention in the province is focused on the presidential
election than the PC race. Three candidates - President Karzai,
Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, and Abdullah Abdullah - have regional offices
established in Gardez. Rallies among provincial leaders and tribal
elders take one of two forms: are either stridently critical of the
current government or more restrained in promoting civic
participation. However, none of these events call explicitly for
the election of any particular presidential candidate. The
reticence of leaders to throw their support publicly behind any
individual candidate reflects the continuing jockeying for support
behind the scenes.


5. (SBU) Incumbent PC candidates told PRT July 8 that they are
prepared to assume control of the reelection effort for Karzai, on
the condition that he reciprocate public support for them. If
Karzai would not back them, they said they would support Ghani or
Abdullah, but said they preferred to support Karzai. That stance is
consistent with most provincial leaders, who expect Karzai to win
Paktya.


6. (U) Despite reports that certain provincial leaders are working
for Karzai, few people admit to working actively on his behalf.
Most appear to be waiting until the last moment in case another
candidate takes the lead. One exception is Wolesi Jirga Member
Gulpacha Majidi, who was in Paktya recently and rebutted the most
common arguments among Paktyans regarding the failure of the current
administration. There are other exceptions among prominent
Paktyans.


7. (SBU) Others who are reportedly working for Karzai are more coy,
including Governor Hamdard. During an early July conversation,
Hamdard held his cards close. The only substantive comment he
allowed himself was a question, slyly asking whether we expect a
first-round winner in the election. His query suggests anticipates
a Karzai victory, with his only remaining question now being by how
wide a margin.


8. (SBU) Comment: In Paktya, all signs point to President Karzai
carrying the day. Most likely, the current members of the
Provincial Council will also do well, though that is less certain
given their low-profile campaign strategies. The preference for
traditional politicking and the limits on public campaigning outside
the capital lend an air of obscurity to the elections, which are now
less than six weeks away.


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