AFGHANISTAN/COUNTERNARCOTICS: UNODC PREDICTS BIG

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000179 E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019 TAGS: SNAR DEA EAID ECON PINR PREL PTER AF SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN/COUNTERNARCOTICS: UNODC PREDICTS BIG DECREASE IN 2009 POPPY CULTIVATION Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons 1.4 (B and D) SUMMARY: -------------- ¶1. (C) According to the head of the UNODC's Kabul office, poppy cultivation in Afghanistan will decline by as much as 30 percent in 2009, and the number of poppy-free provinces could rise from 18 to 22. While market factors are driving much of this reduction, Afghan and international incentive and enforcement programs also play an important role. UNODC plans to focus its 2009 efforts inside Afghanistan in the South and West, and will work to improve counternarcotics coordination with other regional actors, including Iran, Pakistan, and Russia. In Kabul, the Afghan government and UNODC are seeking financial support to help large numbers of heroin addicts living in the old Russian Cultural Center. If UNODC predictions are close to accurate, Afghan poppy cultivation will have been reduced by about 45 percent in two years. END SUMMARY. LESS POPPY IN 2009 -------------- ¶2. (C) Jean-Luc Lemahieu, the newly arrived head of the Kabul office of the UN Office of Drug Control (UNODC),told Ambassador Wood during a January 24 courtesy call that UNODC expects Afghan poppy cultivation to drop dramatically in ¶2009. Although the UNODC's annual Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey (ORAS) has not yet been released, Lemahieu confirmed that the report will predict an overall reduction in poppy cultivation. Lemahieu said this could be as much as thirty percent of the area cultivated in 2008 -- i.e., more than 50,000 hectares fewer than last year. If the ORAS is accurate, 2009 will be the second consecutive year in which poppy cultivation decreased significantly, as UNODC reported a 19 percent reduction in 2008. This follows record high levels of cultivation in 2006 and 2007. The number of provinces considered "poppy free" by the UNODC could rise from 18 to 22 this year. Lemahieu cautioned that, as the ORAS is based primarily on interviews with farmers in areas accessible to UNODC surveyors, it is not infallible; on the other hand, ORAS predictions have often proven relatively accurate in the past, he added. ¶3. (C) According to Lemahieu, the anticipated reduction will largely be driven by "market factors" such as the high cost of wheat and relatively low cost of opium. He readily acknowledged, however, that incentives such as the Good Performers' Initiative (GPI) and law enforcement measures, including eradication, also play an important role. In some provinces -- such as Nangarhar, Kapisa, Herat, and Badakhshan -- "effective eradication" campaigns could be decisive in obtaining or maintaining "poppy free" status this year, given the relatively small areas of cultivation (usually only a few hundred hectares) in these provinces. Ambassador Wood observed that the "nexus" between counterinsurgency and counternarcotics is now widely understood, and stressed the critical importance of improving security and governance in poppy-growing areas. If farmers don't believe they have a choice, he said, then neither carrots nor sticks will have much impact on their growing decisions. MORE REGIONAL COOPERATION -------------- ¶4. (C) Lemahieu described several UNODC proposals to improve regional counternarcotics cooperation. Russia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan all have an interest in combating the narcotics trade, and could do more to support international efforts in this area. Iran is also a key player in the region, and should be encouraged to play a positive role. UNODC, he said, planned to support joint border control operations between Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, coordinated through a regional border control center in Nimruz province. Ambassador Wood made clear that the U.S. would not "stand in the way" of such cooperation, and would be interested in learning the outcome of the proposed joint projects. ¶5. (C) Within Afghanistan, Lemahieu said that UNODC planned to concentrate its efforts in the South and West, particularly provinces like Nimruz and Herat where the coalition presence was relatively small. He explained that UNODC wanted to operate in areas where it could make a "real contribution" without being overwhelmed by larger-scale actors. The total UNODC budget for Afghanistan is USD 20 million. Ambassador Wood observed that such a division of labor was unobjectionable, as long as it did not create the impression that UNODC and other actors could not work in the same regions. Lemahieu stressed that he would take care to avoid creating such a perception. PROBLEMS AT RUSSIAN CULTURAL CENTER -------------- ¶6. (C) Turning to Kabul, Lemahieu sought U.S. support in dealing with the large number of drug addicts congregating at the old Russian Cultural Center. This issue has become a concern for the Afghan government, which is worried about the security, public health, and public relations aspects of the deteriorating situation. UNODC is working to help the Afghans address the issue, but lacks sufficient resources; he estimated about USD 40,000 would be needed to properly secure the facility and improve treatment for the addicts there in the short term. Lemahieu said the UN, ISAF, international agencies, and foreign governments were all being approached with requests for financial or material assistance. Ambassador Wood expressed doubt regarding the central government's short term approach to the problem, and suggested that other actors -- such as Russia -- might be better placed to support this effort than the U.S. right now. COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) The ORAS is an imperfect indicator. Last year it underestimated progress. If this year's ORAS proves close to accurate, however, then the area under poppy cultivation will have declined by about 45 percent in two years. END COMMENT. WOOD