KARZAI'S JULY 5 ELECTION MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 001754

SIPDIS

COS USFOR-A
DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A. EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/6/2019
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI'S JULY 5 ELECTION MEETING

Classified By: Ambassador Carney by reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT. President Karzai's
tightly-conducted 5 July meeting on election security
included senior foreign, security and intelligence members of
his cabinet and the Chairman of the Independent Election
Commission. The SRSG, COMISAF, Ambs. Mussomeli and Carney
attended. The President decided to make elections and
election security the topic of a weekly meeting every Sunday.
Following detailed presentations and discussion by the
Defense and Interior Ministers and the IEC Chairman, the
President set four items for the 12 July agenda: a) the need
for joint army, police, ISAF and IEC teams to visit the forty
percent of polling centers as yet unvisited; b) an Afghan
meeting to discuss how to engage community leaders to protect
the polls; c)regarding the 119 districts controlled by, or
under insurgent influence,an Afghan interagency assessment of
each must be made in detail with a view to deciding whether
elections can take place in a given district and, if not,
what must be done to conduct elections. Part of the
assessment must include a reading of whether the populace
will vote if the district is cleared and held; d) how to
provide more voter registration so as to enhance
participation in the elections. COMMENT: The elections now
have focused and inclusive highest-level Afghan government
attention, a necessary condition for the process to succeed.
We will be monitoring on delivery, and will be preparing
contingencies should that effort fall short. END SUMMARY AND
COMMENT.


2. (SBU) President Hamid Karzai held a 5 July meeting at the
Palace to discuss preparations for the forthcoming elections
and security around them. He noted that two Afghan meetings
in the past few days had discussed the matter, and that the
concerns raised by his Army Chief of Staff caused him to
convene this larger meeting. Those present included Foreign
Minister Spanta, Defense Minister Wardak, Interior Minister
Atmar, IEC Chairman Lodin, NDS Chief Saleh, Vice Chairman for
DIAG Stanekzai, Presidential Chief of Staff Daudzai.
Foreigners numbered SRSG Kai Eide, Amb. Mussomeli, COMISAF
Gen. McChrystal, Amb. (Ret.) Carney.


3. (C) Defense Minister Wardak began an extensive review of
electoral security that began with reference to Presidential
Order 161 to prepare for the security of elections. He noted
close coordination with ISAF and a goal of a peaceful
environment without intimidation, preventing enemy
nterference. He described a three phase process of preparing
and issuing guideline to involved departments, and of
preparing operations to neutralize enemy capability. The
operations began 18 June and would run until 12 August. He
noted two districts in Helmand province have been liberated
and that preparations for operations in the nine districts
remaining under the enemy might see liberation of "a few" of
those. He noted that additional ops would begin 13 August
and continue until 7 October, through the possible runoff
period. He elaborated the well-known concept of security
protection into four tiers, with ANP at Tier 1, the polling
place; ANA at Tier 2 and ISAF at Tier 3 and 4, the last of
which is aerial surveillance. He stated that coordination
for command and control would be at the Regional Coordination
Center, and that, for the elections, Provincial Coordination
Centers would include all election security and operational
stakeholders. The Minister noted that such provincial
coordination centers exist at all province capitals with the
exception of four or five. COMMENT: Our information is that
many centers are not running 24 hours a day and lack,
especially, the ANP component. END COMMENT.


4. (SBU) As the Minister detailed the challenges to the
elections: suicide attacks on polling centers and IEC
offices, IEDs on the roads, assassination and kidnapping of
candidates and began to list threatened districts, the
President cut him off and moved on, seeking clarification on
numbers of polling centers, polling stations within them and
other such statistics. After an elaboration on the number of
polling centers (nearly 7,000) and the number of polling
stations at each (4) and the number of voting booths in total
(128K),the NDS head turned to security/intelligence matters.
He stated that three percent of districts have parallel
Taliban Administrations; 24% of populated areas are contested
and do not have effective government presence. Ten percent
of the country is a battleground; 63% is peaceful.


5. (SBU) President Karzai wondered if enough police exist to
"protect what needs to be protected: election sites,
government sites" and the rest. The Interior Minister raised
five issues, beginning by stating that two of the six regions

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do not have enough police: Paktia, where 10,400 police are
needed and only 5,000 exist; and, second, the Western region
that needs 6,500 and only has 5,000. The total shortfall is
6,000 police. The second aspect is that in districts in
Ghazni and Paktika while a polling center might need 10
policemen for security, people who would come from villages
and villages themselves are not secure. Thus,in some areas a
second belt of security exists that ANA and ISAF staff.
These areas cannot use simply a QRF; they rather need a force
to hold. The key, Atmar maintained, is the need to prioritize
on the facts that NDS Saleh had laid out. Holding operations
would be needed in 119 or 120 districts; then the existing
police would be enough. The second issue is that an
interagency team of ANSF, IEC, and ISAF has not yet visited
all 7K sites: roughly 40% of the polling center locations
countrywide have not been visited. Thus, it is not yet clear
how many police will be needed and where the ANA is better
used. Atmar strongly urged that this reconnaissance be
completed within the next ten days. His third issues was to
intensify clearing operations in uncontrolled districts,
especially four districts in Ghazni. The fourth issue is
the need for ISAF airlift; some electoral items need to be
protected and IEC cannot transport them. Atmar cited one
rural area that will use donkeys to move in empty ballot
boxes, but full boxes on their way to the province capital
after having been counted at the polling centers are too
sensitive to confide to donkeys. The fifth issue is the need
to establish provincial coordinating centers in three
provinces and to ensure the compatibility of ANA and ANP
communications gear.


6. (C) Minister Atmar also cited what he called two strategic
issues. First is that in high threat areas, the way forward
is to go to community leadership to help with security, as in
previous elections. The decision needed is whether to appeal
to local community leadership. "They know how to do it," the
Minister concluded. The second strategic issue is getting
the neighboring countries to secure the borders. On Pakistan
and electoral security, Minister Wardak noted a 24 June
report from a meeting of the Quetta Shura, at a celebration
because authorities had freed five "colleagues.: The Shura
instructed all to interfere in the elections by attacking
convoys of IEC goods, polling stations, laying IEDs. He
noted his belief that Pakistan had helped at the time of the
last elections and that the Pakistan General then head of
ISI(Kayani)had admitted as much to Wardak.


7. (C) At the President's invitation to comment, Gen.
McChrystal said that ISAF would help as it can because
success of the elections are ISAF,s No. 1 priority. All
force necessary will be brought to bear within capabilities.
Backbriefs from the regions he has just visited have resulted
in identifying matters to work through. ISAF understands the
(President's) intent that it maintain low visibility in the
tier structure, operating QRF by helicopter where needed. He
agrees on the need for a visit to the remaining 40% of
polling centers. On clearing black districts, the General
opposed clearing operations if ISAF/ANSF cannot hold the
areas. Concerning threats, he generally sees the same as
previous speakers have stated, but the worry right now is
more about the aspect of intimidation. On Pakistan, COMISAF
noted he had spoken to Pakistan Army Chief of Staff General
Kayani about security regarding ongoing operations in the
south in general terms. No specifics regarding elections
were discussed. The General noted that a forthcoming
Tripartite meeting in July might provide the opportunity to
follow-up.


8. (SBU) Called on to explain why 40 % of polling centers
remain unvisited,IEC Chairman Dr. Lodin said that the key
problem is security. Consultation on the issue takes place
every 15 days. He made eleven points that noted the
allotment of police to threatened polling centers (11-high
threat),(6-medium threat); (4-calm). He discussed security
of warehouses, noting U.S. willingness to province funds for
private security to guard such sites. He said that school
students, male and female would be given and incentive of $10
each to act as body searchers for votes. Non-sensitive
electoral material is almost all out to the provinces and, he
explained to the SRSG would be completed in 10 days. He
agreed that an IEC delegation must visit the 7,000 polling
centers. The UN and international community will provide 3
helicopters/planes for IEC use; this is not enough, but will
do. Voters are still asking for mobile voter registration
teams. This is promising and encouraging. Thus, Dr. Lodin
expects a greater turnout than is generally believed at this
point. He concluded that foreign observers will need
security,too.

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9. (SBU) Dr. Lodin's reference to possible private security
for IEC warehouses sparked an animated discussion. President
Karzai rejected the notion, arguing private security firms
are problematical, and some are even associated with the
Taliban. NDS Saleh referred to a report he has on the
situation in Farah that he has shared with SRAP adviser
Barney Rubin and with his U.S. counterparts. Minister Atmar
explained that a new facility now exists at the Interior
Ministry. It is a public protection service. Clients can
have access to this service if the pay and thereby get police
and not just private security. He noted that these police
elements are not for crime-fighting, but just for security.
He noted that the UN uses them; private banks use them; the
INAC copper mine uses them. Atmar concluded that the issue
needs serious discussion, but funding or not, Interior will
get security to IEC warehouses. On international observers,
he described a unit of 500 new graduates, half trained by
France and with U.S. support for weapons and vehicles that
can be used to protect international observers.


10. (SBU) Deputy Minister for DIAG Stanekzai suggested that
military efforts to enable people in the 3% under Taliban
administration to go to neighboring districts would be
useful. He suggested the need to build confidence among
people in the 24% of contested areas. Finally he urged using
candidates themselves to help get communities to engage in
protection of the vote and in getting out the vote itself.


11. (SBU) The President concluded that the need exists to
begin weekly meetings on elections and election security. He
set every Sunday for the event. He then summarized the
elements of the discussion that would be briefed at the next
meeting, 12 July:

a) report on the effort for joint army, police, ISAF and IEC
teams to visit the forty percent of polling centers as yet
unvisited;

b) an Afghan meeting to discuss how to engage community
leaders to protect the polls;

c) regarding the 119 districts controlled by, or under
insurgent influence, an interagency assessment of each must
be made in detail with a view to deciding whether elections
can take place in a given district and, if not, what must be
done to conduct elections. Part of the assessment must
include a reading of whether the populace will vote if the
district is cleared and held;

d) how to provide more voter registration so as to enhance
participation in the elections.

EIKENBERRY