PLANNING FOR GOVERNANCE CHANGES IN HELMAND

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 001736

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID AF
SUBJECT: PLANNING FOR GOVERNANCE CHANGES IN HELMAND

Classified By: PRT and Sub-National Governance Director Valerie C. Fowl
er for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) The U.K. has begun planning for governance changes in
Helmand after August 20 elections, concerned that former
governor and local powerbroker Sher Mohammad Akunzada (SMA)
or his associates are working to return to Helmand. The UK,
appropriately, is concerned that the improvements in
governance, development, and security could quickly be
undermined should President Karzai win reelection and appoint
SMA or an SMA-backed candidate to serve as governor of
Helmand. The British-led PRT is deeply concerned by the
potential negative influence of these individuals on Helmand
governance and the potential to undermine UK and U.S.
operations and efforts in Helmand.


2. (C) During a June 30 meeting between PRT Civilian Head
Hugh Powell and Helmand Governor Mangal, Powell pressed
Mangal on his future plans. Mangal knows that President
Karzai has promised SMA that Mangal will be removed quickly
after the elections but Mangal could not name the planned
replacement. Mangal is prepared for this event and
reportedly appeared very calm about the whole process.
Mangal declared he would need the "full support" of the
President and the continued support of the international
civilian, military, and development communities if he were to
stay on in Helmand. When asked by Powell whether he would
consider staying if he had the ability to do his job without
interference, Mangal reportedly paused and said that might be
a possibility if it could be arranged.

Comment
--------------


3. (C) Mangal seemed to open the door slightly to staying on
in Helmand but he appears to have thought carefully about the
conditions under which he would stay -- something close to a
non-interference clause from Kabul. He seems now resigned to
leaving after the elections, but as the date gets closer we
will see if he expresses any wider interest in remaining and
for how long.


4. (C) The UK is keen to ensure that -- should Karzai win --
he does not quickly return SMA or his associates to
leadership positions in Helmand. PRT Head Hugh Powell
reportedly has sent a think piece back to London on options.
Post has engaged with the UK Embassy to consider strategies
for ensuring qualified governors, rather than weak appointees
who delivered votes for the elected President, are maintained
post election. As an initial step, Post is discussing
quietly with the UK the characteristics and qualifications of
good governors and officials and how the Independent
Directorate of Local Governance (IDLG) could play a role in
ensuring that strong governors are maintained post elections
in key provinces like Helmand.
EIKENBERRY