Security Key in Ghazni Election Planning

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001731 DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF SUBJECT: Security Key in Ghazni Election Planning ¶1. (SBU) Begin Summary. Overt candidate campaigning is occurring in Ghazni, but is relatively muted due to the prevailing security situation. Ghazni City - the largest population center and the provincial capital - is the most active area. In the countryside, residents appear to want to vote, but those in the Pashtun districts seem daunted by insecurity and enemy threats. Hazaran residents say the elections will be rigged and their votes will not count. Activity to date among the major election stakeholders is mixed; the local Independent Election Commission (IEC) office is active, but the Afghan National Police (ANP),Afghan National Army (ANA) and National Directorate of Security (NDS) chiefs are involved to varying degrees. Voter turnout in the Pashtun districts is expected to be low unless security improves, whereas Hazarans will vote in force due to better security in their districts. A number of sources believe Karzai's camp will conduct the most fraud. Meanwhile, enemy forces appear to be threatening Ghazni's residents not to vote. END SUMMARY. -------------- CAMPAIGNING OCCURING IN GHAZNI CITY -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Campaigning has begun in Ghazni City but is muted, with a few posters of President Karzai posted in roundabouts and on walls along city street. About 1,000 people rallied in support of President Karzai in late June. The peaceful rally, organized by Hajji Faisil - a key advisor to Governor Usmani, the head of Ghazni's reconciliation program, and the District administrator for Deh Yak district - was reportedly attended by Pashtuns, Tajiks and Hazarans. ¶3. (SBU) Former Kandahar and Ghazni Governor Assadullah Khalid, is said to be campaigning for President Karzai in Ghazni and the three neighboring provinces of Paktiya, Paktika and Khowst. One PC member told PRT State Rep that Khalid will "spend lots of money" in those provinces. Khalid made a surprise visit to Ghazni in early May, before Governor Usmani was summoned to Kabul for a May 17 hearing. Multiple sources indicate that the major Hazaran parties, Hezb-e Wahdat and Harakat-e Islami-yi Afghanistan, have opened offices in Ghazni City. Other parties that have opened campaign offices in Ghazni City include Jamiat-e Islami, Hezb-e Mardum-e Musilman Afghanistan, and Hezb-e Eqtedar-e Mili. There are reportedly three political campaign offices that are reaching out to Ghazni's youth: one is run by a young activist, Jamay, who is frequently seen with Governor Usmani; one by Barad Khan, and the third by Faisil Karim Panawal, a self-described security advisor to the Governor. -------------- MIXED REACTIONS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Public attitudes towards the elections vary, particularly depending on where one resides in Ghazni province. Among the Hazaran residents of Malistan and Jaghori districts, presidential candidate Ramazan Bashardost is very popular. Ghazni's PC member from Jaghori said that there is "hot competition" between him and President Karzai there. Despite Bashardost's popularity, most Jaghori residents expect Karzai will win, either because people will buy votes for him, or because prominent Hazarans will declare their support for him (and thus encourage the people to vote for Karzai). These prominent Hazarans include former Hazaran warlord Mohaqqeq, current Second Vice President Karim Khalili and Dr. Mudabir. One Hazaran PC member told PRT State Rep she believes President Karzai's men will bribe local election officials to stuff ballot boxes for Karzai. Regardless of whether they believe the elections will be rigged, most Hazarans indicate they intend to vote, and have little concern about security at the polling centers in their districts. ¶5. (SBU) In contrast, interviews conducted by PRT representatives in the Pashtun districts suggest that while Pashtuns also want to vote, they are less certain that they will, especially if the security situation does not improve before August 20. PRT and Task Force White Eagle personnel have heard from local contacts that Taliban are warning residents of these districts that they will be killed if they vote. According to one anecdote, registered voters were forced to eat their voter registration cards. Other sources claim that Taliban have taken people's voter registration cards from them, so that they cannot vote. The consensus view is that the security in Ghazni's Pashtun districts is far worse than in the Hazaran districts, as enemy forces have infiltrated these districts and operate among the public with impunity. Virtually everyone with views on the elections believes that actual voter turnout in the Pashtun districts will be low unless security improves. -------------- LOCAL IEC OFFICE ENGAGED AND ACTIVE -------------- KABUL 00001731 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Ghazni's local IEC office staff and Provincial Election Officer (PEO),Abdul Boree Rahimi, are professional, engaged, and have been making the necessary preparations for the elections. Civic educators are already operating in most of Ghazni's 19 districts, with the exception of Nawa, the southernmost district which is controlled by enemy forces. On June 16, PEO Rahimi reported that District Field Coordinators were being trained and would deploy to the districts within 10 days. A tour of the IEC's rented office space on the outskirts of Ghazni City revealed an office buzzing with activity. The logistics officer had movement plans on his wall reflecting UNDP ELECT's latest plan to get election materials out to the districts. Staff worked behind desks in various rooms outfitted with furniture and computers supplied by the PRT. The communications officer showed the PRT his radios, and requested assistance in loading the frequencies into them. Rahimi is young, but clearly in charge of the local IEC office, and protective of its independence. ¶7. (SBU) Since his arrival in Ghazni in early May, Rahimi has been open to meeting with PRT and Task Force White Eagle representatives, either at the base or in his office. He has also attempted a number of times to reach out to Ghazni's security chiefs. According to Rahimi, he has had the most success in this effort with Ghazni's new Chief of Police, General Sherzai, and the NDS Chief. He has had less success in engaging with the local ANA kandak commander, and asked the Task Force and PRT's assistance in facilitating a meeting with him. EIKENBERRY