Security Key in Ghazni Election Planning

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001731

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: Security Key in Ghazni Election Planning


1. (SBU) Begin Summary. Overt candidate campaigning is occurring in
Ghazni, but is relatively muted due to the prevailing security
situation. Ghazni City - the largest population center and the
provincial capital - is the most active area. In the countryside,
residents appear to want to vote, but those in the Pashtun districts
seem daunted by insecurity and enemy threats. Hazaran residents say
the elections will be rigged and their votes will not count.
Activity to date among the major election stakeholders is mixed; the
local Independent Election Commission (IEC) office is active, but
the Afghan National Police (ANP),Afghan National Army (ANA) and
National Directorate of Security (NDS) chiefs are involved to
varying degrees. Voter turnout in the Pashtun districts is expected
to be low unless security improves, whereas Hazarans will vote in
force due to better security in their districts. A number of
sources believe Karzai's camp will conduct the most fraud.
Meanwhile, enemy forces appear to be threatening Ghazni's residents
not to vote. END SUMMARY.

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CAMPAIGNING OCCURING IN GHAZNI CITY
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2. (SBU) Campaigning has begun in Ghazni City but is muted, with a
few posters of President Karzai posted in roundabouts and on walls
along city street. About 1,000 people rallied in support of
President Karzai in late June. The peaceful rally, organized by
Hajji Faisil - a key advisor to Governor Usmani, the head of
Ghazni's reconciliation program, and the District administrator for
Deh Yak district - was reportedly attended by Pashtuns, Tajiks and
Hazarans.


3. (SBU) Former Kandahar and Ghazni Governor Assadullah Khalid, is
said to be campaigning for President Karzai in Ghazni and the three
neighboring provinces of Paktiya, Paktika and Khowst. One PC member
told PRT State Rep that Khalid will "spend lots of money" in those
provinces. Khalid made a surprise visit to Ghazni in early May,
before Governor Usmani was summoned to Kabul for a May 17 hearing.
Multiple sources indicate that the major Hazaran parties, Hezb-e
Wahdat and Harakat-e Islami-yi Afghanistan, have opened offices in
Ghazni City. Other parties that have opened campaign offices in
Ghazni City include Jamiat-e Islami, Hezb-e Mardum-e Musilman
Afghanistan, and Hezb-e Eqtedar-e Mili. There are reportedly three
political campaign offices that are reaching out to Ghazni's youth:
one is run by a young activist, Jamay, who is frequently seen with
Governor Usmani; one by Barad Khan, and the third by Faisil Karim
Panawal, a self-described security advisor to the Governor.

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MIXED REACTIONS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE
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4. (SBU) Public attitudes towards the elections vary, particularly
depending on where one resides in Ghazni province. Among the
Hazaran residents of Malistan and Jaghori districts, presidential
candidate Ramazan Bashardost is very popular. Ghazni's PC member
from Jaghori said that there is "hot competition" between him and
President Karzai there. Despite Bashardost's popularity, most
Jaghori residents expect Karzai will win, either because people will
buy votes for him, or because prominent Hazarans will declare their
support for him (and thus encourage the people to vote for Karzai).
These prominent Hazarans include former Hazaran warlord Mohaqqeq,
current Second Vice President Karim Khalili and Dr. Mudabir. One
Hazaran PC member told PRT State Rep she believes President Karzai's
men will bribe local election officials to stuff ballot boxes for
Karzai. Regardless of whether they believe the elections will be
rigged, most Hazarans indicate they intend to vote, and have little
concern about security at the polling centers in their districts.


5. (SBU) In contrast, interviews conducted by PRT representatives in
the Pashtun districts suggest that while Pashtuns also want to vote,
they are less certain that they will, especially if the security
situation does not improve before August 20. PRT and Task Force
White Eagle personnel have heard from local contacts that Taliban
are warning residents of these districts that they will be killed if
they vote. According to one anecdote, registered voters were forced
to eat their voter registration cards. Other sources claim that
Taliban have taken people's voter registration cards from them, so
that they cannot vote. The consensus view is that the security in
Ghazni's Pashtun districts is far worse than in the Hazaran
districts, as enemy forces have infiltrated these districts and
operate among the public with impunity. Virtually everyone with
views on the elections believes that actual voter turnout in the
Pashtun districts will be low unless security improves.

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LOCAL IEC OFFICE ENGAGED AND ACTIVE
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6. (SBU) Ghazni's local IEC office staff and Provincial Election
Officer (PEO),Abdul Boree Rahimi, are professional, engaged, and
have been making the necessary preparations for the elections.
Civic educators are already operating in most of Ghazni's 19
districts, with the exception of Nawa, the southernmost district
which is controlled by enemy forces. On June 16, PEO Rahimi
reported that District Field Coordinators were being trained and
would deploy to the districts within 10 days. A tour of the IEC's
rented office space on the outskirts of Ghazni City revealed an
office buzzing with activity. The logistics officer had movement
plans on his wall reflecting UNDP ELECT's latest plan to get
election materials out to the districts. Staff worked behind desks
in various rooms outfitted with furniture and computers supplied by
the PRT. The communications officer showed the PRT his radios, and
requested assistance in loading the frequencies into them. Rahimi
is young, but clearly in charge of the local IEC office, and
protective of its independence.


7. (SBU) Since his arrival in Ghazni in early May, Rahimi has been
open to meeting with PRT and Task Force White Eagle representatives,
either at the base or in his office. He has also attempted a number
of times to reach out to Ghazni's security chiefs. According to
Rahimi, he has had the most success in this effort with Ghazni's new
Chief of Police, General Sherzai, and the NDS Chief. He has had
less success in engaging with the local ANA kandak commander, and
asked the Task Force and PRT's assistance in facilitating a meeting
with him.

EIKENBERRY