SHERZAI BASKS IN BUZZ OVER POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000172 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM AF SUBJECT: SHERZAI BASKS IN BUZZ OVER POSSIBLE PRESIDENTIAL RUN REF: A. KABUL 30 ¶B. 08 KABUL 3111 ¶C. KABUL 139 ¶D. KABUL 160 Classified By: DCM Christopher Dell for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Nangarhar Governor Gul Aqa Sherzai's trip to the United States this month ignited gossip among Kabul's chattering classes and media about his presidential ambitions and relationship with President Karzai. Rumors that Sherzai attended President Obama's inauguration at the invitation of either the new administration or the U.S. military sparked jealousy from other politicians and outrage among Karzai's supporters. Sherzai's possible candidacy is one of the few to stir an emotional response -- positive or negative -- from most Afghans, who have largely dismissed other rumored candidates before their campaigns have become official. Sherzai Happy to be the Talk of the Town -------------- ¶2. (C) Governor Sherzai's reputation for governance successes in Kandahar and Nangarhar has led to significant popular support for his candidacy (ref A). We note that of all the rumored candidates (ref B),only Sherzai's name has triggered positive reactions in Kabul. Afghans view most other candidates as corrupt, incompetent, or detached from the challenges of every day life in Afghanistan. Supporters of other probable contenders usually tell us their votes will be cast out of ethnic or tribal loyalty, or as part of a calculated effort to defeat Karzai. Even many Karzai voters now view their continued support for the president as a buffer against a greater evil. ¶3. (C) Sherzai has played up his relationship with the U.S. military to keep the rumor mills buzzing (ref C). Kabul's chattering classes and media have taken the bait, eagerly digesting new reports of Sherzai's ambitions and speculating on how his candidacy would affect his status as Nangarhar governor and his relationship with Karzai. Even when skeptics bring up his weak points (lack of refinement, corruption allegations, a reputation for sometimes brutal methods, etc.),his name stays in the mix. Inaugural Fever Leaves Some With Chills -------------- ¶4. (C) Sherzai departed Kabul January 15, reportedly to attend inaugural festivities in Washington (Afghan media placed him in DC on Jan. 20 along with other presidential hopefuls Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Ali Ahmad Jalali, and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.) On his way out of the country, Sherzai attended a January 14 dinner at the Palace, leading many to predict the president would launch an angry confrontation with a once-loyal supporter turned rival. By all reports, however, the encounter was cordial and the presidential election did not come up in the discussion. ¶5. (C) Despite the Embassy's repeated denials, most Afghans and local media believed Sherzai to be visiting Washington on an official invitation from the U.S. government. This sparked jealously and outrage among other political camps, who contacted us asking where their invitations were. No less than three Palace sources asked on behalf of Karzai (one admitted Karzai had directed him to inquire). One MP told us Karzai had so counted on being in Washington alongside Sherzai on January 20 that he had told 2nd Vice President Khalili to prepare to preside over Parliament's opening that same day (ref D). Sherzai's Actual Intentions Still Unknown -------------- ¶6. (C) Sherzai's candidacy would certainly add intrigue to the presidential race. He is one of the few contenders to have popular support in more than one region, and one of an even smaller number capable of running on a record of accomplishments. He has good RELATIONS with the powerbrokers in his Barakzai tribe and among the MPs in his adopted province. Interestingly, polling conducted in RC-E shows Sherzai consistently gets the highest approval ratings of any governor in the region from his constituents. But he lacks connections elsewhere -- he is a divisive figure among non-Pashtuns and has no history with Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan, a growing hub of Pashtun-based POLITICAL power. Despite his boasts to the contrary, he is also mostly unknown outside of Afghanistan and does not have Karzai's mastery of the English language or track record with foreign KABUL 00000172 002 OF 002 governments. ¶7. (C) A declared candidacy would also likely put an end to Sherzai's lucrative career as a governor -- meaning he will not openly declare his intentions unless he is sure he can win. Looking at the electoral math, Sherzai's best chance would require a strong United Front candidate to draw a majority of Tajik, Hazara and Uzbek votes and a low turnout among Karzai's tribal supporters in the south. Sherzai could then sneak into a second-round runoff ahead of Karzai and unite the Pashtun vote against the United Front. For now, this remains an unlikely scenario and the lack of a sure path to victory will probably keep Sherzai on the sidelines, but not out of the spotlight. For Sherzai, this attention is perhaps a sweeter reward than an uncertain campaign. WOOD