INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS: STATE OF PLAY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001679 DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA PLEASE PASS USAID FOR JBROWNING SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS: STATE OF PLAY REF: A. SECSTATE 62522 ¶B. Kabul 1596 ¶C. Kabul 1557 ¶D. Kabul 1506 ¶1. (SBU) This, fourth in a series, updates and provides additional details on Embassy plans and efforts for the Afghan presidential and provincial council elections, per the request in ref A. This cable updates post's efforts to achieve a sizeable contingent of international observers to help ensure credible elections in Afghanistan, and on the state of coordination among donors who are sponsoring observer missions. -------------- International Observer Missions -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Currently 200 international observers are planned for the first round of elections. We are reviewing proposals that could add another 145 observers, a combination of internationals and associated Afghans. This will augment the 7,000 domestic observers that the Free and Fair Elections Foundation of Afghanistan (FEFA) plans to field. It does not include additional observers Embassies in Kabul may field. Currently, the EU observation mission will be the largest planned international mission with around 60 long-term observers to begin arriving July 12, and 40-50 short-term observers (ref B). EU observers will deploy to seven provincial hubs: Bamyan, Balkh, Kunduz, Herat, Kandahar, Paktia, and Nangarhar. Canada plans to second observers to the EU mission. ¶3. (SBU) USAID has received four proposals, submitted by the Asia Foundation/ANFREL; Democracy International; the National Democratic Institute (NDI); and the International Republican Institute (IRI). The Asia Foundation/ANFREL and Democracy International proposals have been approved. Their core teams will begin arriving next week. The long-term observers for both of these organizations will arrive the third week of July, with short-term observers arriving closer to the election. USAID is negotiating with IRI and NDI on where their observers will be deployed and on the composition of their delegations. One of USAID's primary goals is to ensure that all regional commands - and their associated provinces - have an international observer presence. With this in mind, USAID has asked IRI and NDI, which proposed a large security component, to deploy to the South and East, respectively. These organizations are discussing this notion internally and will have a decision from their boards to convey to USAID on June 29. We will report SEPTEL on the finalization of these plans and the exact number, composition, and deployment plan of each of these observer missions. -------------- Observers' Issues of Concern -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Per ref C, Post, with UNDP-ELECT, led in creating an Observer Secretariat to share information among missions and de-conflict polling day travels. At a June 24 meeting, members agreed on terms of reference. While members are properly averse to consultation on messages or public statements, they agree that sharing preliminary observer statements on a voluntary basis would be useful. The EC representative briefed that Minister of Interior Atmar had asked the EU mission to make observation of police behavior a priority and to employ an expert on police conduct. (Note: Per ref D, Atmar has made a similar suggestion to Ambassador Carney. End Note.) He also noted concern that the IEC's observer code of conduct threatens serious discipline from the IEC or ECC for violations, without detailing what that may entail, and gives the IEC the authority to restrict access to polling centers to prevent over-crowding. The EU is working through these issues with the IEC and will update the Secretariat at future meetings. USAID briefed other members on the geographic coverage goals it plans to achieve. The plan may require the Embassy to ask some PRTs in RC-South and RC-East to provide support for U.S.-funded observers. Donors are still far from agreeing on whether to coordinate on training, credentialing, and deployment, so we will raise these topics in future meetings. -------------- U.S. Embassy Observer Mission -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Kabul-based diplomatic missions will also offer election observers. EU member states will integrate their diplomats into the EU mission. The U.S. Embassy is planning for election day observation, with a plan modeled on the 2004 operation. For the 2004 presidential elections, the Embassy deployed 23 Americans and 22 local staff as observers, with four-person teams visited polling KABUL 00001679 002 OF 002 sites in a dozen districts around greater Kabul operating between 6:15AM to 6:00PM. ¶6. (SBU) An observer delegation from the Embassy would augment the international presence, demonstrate U.S. support for the process, and provide valuable ground-level reporting. It will also require high-levels of diplomatic security support and general services support to succeed. Post is coordinating internally to determine requirements. As we can expect VIP, CODEL, and congressional staff interest in observation, we will design a system that allows - on a limited basis and subject to chief of mission approval - legislative branch members and staff, and even some other Embassies' staff (Australians, for example) to participate in observation. All observers fielded as part of the U.S. Embassy mission would be required to take a training course (which will be offered in Kabul), be credentialed, and consent to the parameters and rigors of performing a challenging task with utmost cultural sensitivity in a high-threat environment. The Embassy observer delegation will make every effort to coordinate the polling stations it will visit with other international and diplomatic observation missions to ensure maximum geographic coverage. -------------- THE OSCE ELECTION SUPPORT TEAM -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The OSCE is currently recruiting elections experts to serve on its election support team. The team will not be called an election observation mission and the mission will not issue a statement the day after the election. These were Russia's red lines. However, in all other ways, the OSCE election support team will act like a long long-term observation mission, including preparing a report on the electoral process. The report would include recommendations to the Afghan government on how the country's future elections, legal framework, and procedures, notably including voter registration, could be improved. The OSCE mission will be co-located with the EU election observation team, and therefore will have full access to the EU observer reports. The OSCE team expects to be in Afghanistan until mid-September (when the final election results are announced by the IEC) and will issue its report shortly after that. The OSCE is then willing to continue to work with the Afghan government to initiate improvements in time for the expected summer 2010 parliamentary elections. EIKENBERRY