HERAT CAMPAIGN ACTIVITIES: KARZAI DOMINATING THE FIELD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001662 DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA USFOR-A FOR POLAD SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF SUBJECT: HERAT CAMPAIGN ACTIVITIES: KARZAI DOMINATING THE FIELD ¶1. (U) Summary. Election campaigning is underway in Herat with general resignation, not excitement, among the populace that President Karzai will win. Karzai's campaign spending and outreach to key local figures and organizations have strengthened his position, but some analysts believe he can still be beaten on election day. Provincial Council campaign activities are muted to date with fewer posters on the streets than the previous election, due largely to the late provision of official symbols by the International Election Commission (IEC) in Kabul. The local Herat Provincial Election Office (PEO) is working smoothly and is hiring and training provincial election support staff. The new Elections Complaint Commission (ECC) office is up and running, but is poorly placed to carry out its duties and has a long way to go to educate the general public on its role and to be accessible and responsive to those wishing to document complaints. End Summary. Karzai Solidifying Position in Herat -------------- ¶2. (U) To date, nine candidates have opened campaign offices in Herat: President Karzai, Abdullah Abdullah, General Shanawaz Tanai, Mirwais Yaseeni, Ashraf Ghani, Dr. Habib Mangal, Abdul Latif Pedram, Sayed Karim Jalal, and Muhtasem Bela Mazhabi. While some political commentators in Herat believe the outcome is uncertain, most experts believe President Karzai is firmly in command and will win the province by a substantial margin. President Karzai has a well-established political operation in Herat city as well as the districts. His campaign headquarters in Herat city is hosting lunch for about 80 to 100 people a day, and similar operations are being established at the district level. Other leading candidates are serving juice and tea, but are not spending the same resources on outreach thus far. ¶3. (U) Karzai has developed the firm support of the leading power brokers in Herat. The Provincial Council (PC) chair, Homayoun Azizi, is leading Karzai's campaign activities and not running for reelection, which has prompted local criticism and a call for him to step down given the conflict of interest. The Hazara political party of Mohaqqeq is supporting Karzai, as are the Afghan Mellat and Junbesh parties. Additionally, a number of civil society organizations, including the Ulema Council, the Youth Association, and most district elders, are publicly supporting Karzai. ¶4. (U) Governor Nuristani, while a Karzai supporter, is visibly absent from the political debate and surprisingly uninformed about the election activities in Herat. Speculation is rife that Karzai has promised former governor and strongman Ismael Khan either the governorship of Herat or a new super or regional governorship of the western provinces for his support; but seasoned analysts believe that other Karzai backers would strenuously object to a return of Ishmael Khan to the governorship and that Khan himself is a different man than in 2004 and is seeking instead a key ministry position. ¶5. (U) Among the general public, resignation for a second Karzai term is settling in but there is little excitement for his candidacy. As a result, locals say campaign activities are more subdued than 2004. The average Herati believes that Karzai's confidence, hefty campaign spending, and recent visit to Washington are all indications that "the U.S. wants him" for a second term. Provincial Council Campaign Off to Slow Start -------------- ¶6. (U) In general, local governance in Herat is working well and there are no remarkable issues in the campaign beyond the usual security and economic concerns. While the campaigns have begun, the numbers of candidates actively campaigning in the province is fairly low compared to 2005. For PC candidates, this is largely explained by the delayed provision of official candidate symbols (a recognition tool for illiterate voters),which the Herat IEC office still had not received as of June 23. The PEO expects to receive the information via compact disc imminently and told PRTOff that he would copy and distribute one to each of the candidates as soon as he could. After the symbols are distributed, we expect to see posters and campaign propaganda popping up throughout Herat for PC candidates. IEC Hiring and Training its Staff -------------- ¶7. (U) Hera's Independent Election Commission (IEC) and its Principal Election Officer (PEO) Zia are professional, competent, and independent. The IEC has been actively developing its election plans, moving ballots, hiring personnel, providing civic education, and interacting with candidates. The office was abuzz with activity when PRTOff visited June 23 as a four-day training course kicked off for the recently hired 180 District Field Coordinators (DFCs). The KABUL 00001662 002 OF 002 DFCs were selected from 650 applicants and include 35 women. Once the training is completed they will head to their assigned districts to visit polling centers and identify needs. DFCs will work in pairs responsible for monitoring and supervising activities at five polling sites each, and for recruiting five people from each area to work for them. The DFCs will complement the civic education teams, which are already in the field and generally working well, according to Zia. Zia noted that there had been some instances of intimidation of civic education teams, but they were able to report these to the Afghan National Police (ANP) for resolution and the teams eventually will be able to access the problematic districts. ECC is the Orphan Organization -------------- ¶8. (U) State PRTOff visited the nine-member ECC at its headquarters on the UNAMA compound and found the ECC, which had been established at UNAMA only a few days earlier, to be poorly situated. The small office assigned to the ECC was unfurnished, thus inaccessible for meetings or discussion. The UNAMA compound is located outside the city near the airport and has strict entry and exit security requirements. This hampers its ability to present itself as an accessible organization to Afghan citizens wishing to file complaints. Additionally, the Regional Elections Coordinator told PRTOff that many of the individuals hired to staff the ECC had earlier been turned down for positions in the Herat IEC. However, it is still too early to assess the quality of the individuals and their work. ¶9. (U) In the meeting with PRTOff, the business-like ECC Commissioner for Public Outreach, Dr. Abdulraziq Safi, outlined the steps he is taking to carry out the duties defined in the elections law despite the challenges posed by office space and the failure to yet receive funding for communications and transportation. He said few complaints had yet been filed, but that many political parties and the people were not well informed about the election campaign rules or the ECC's existence. He indicated that he will meet with the Line Ministry for Culture and Information to discuss a media public information campaign and will also place complaints boxes in prominent places. Additionally, he was reaching out to women's groups to address their unique complaints. Safi said ECC's would require evidence to back up complaints and that the lawyers and investigators on his staff would follow up on appropriately-documented complaints. The ECC has many possible responses to complaints, ranging from initial advice and warnings, and moving up to fines and referrals for legal action. EIKENBERRY