KANDAHAR: A SNAPSHOT OF ELECTIONS ACTIVITY IN AN ACTIVE

UNCLAS KABUL 001595

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS TO AID FOR ASIA/SCAA
USFOR-A FOR POLAD

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KDEM PGOV AF
SUBJECT: KANDAHAR: A SNAPSHOT OF ELECTIONS ACTIVITY IN AN ACTIVE
PROVINCE


1. The first political rally of the campaign season took place in
Kandahar city on June 18, with an estimated 1000 members of the
Barakzai tribe holding a rally downtown in support of incumbent
Hamid Karzai. The rally was entirely peaceful and apparently not
organized by the Karzai campaign machine. The Barakzais, one of the
more important tribes in Kandahar Province, have generally been
aligned with Hamid Karzai's half-brother, Ahmad Wali Karzai (AWK),
the powerful chairman of the PC, so their support for Karzai is not
surprising.


2. AWK is reportedly spending time in Dubai in connection with his
mother's medical treatment there. According to Karzai family
sources with close connections to ISAF, AWK plans to keep a low
profile during the campaign season so as not to draw criticism for
trying to dominate campaign activities in the province in favor of
Hamid Karzai -- which he would be capable of doing if he so chose.


3. The young nephews of AWK and Hamid Karzai, "Zach" and "Ace"
Karzai (both U.S. citizens from Downers Grove, Illinois) still plan
to manage the Hamid Karzai campaign in Kandahar. They have said
they will make extensive use of spam SMS messaging. PRT rep
confirmed that on June 17, he received two Karzai political ads in
Pashto on his cell phone. Zach and Ace, like AWK, have said they
want to keep the Karzai campaign in Kandahar "low key."


4. Kandahar City Mayor Ghulam Haider Hamedi Mohammedzai met with
many PC candidates last week and explained regulations he plans to
enforce regarding political advertising and rallies in Kandahar
City. He covered how to apply for permits for rallies, how to work
with Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to ensure that events
are peaceful, and where political advertising may be displayed.


5. Many campaign posters for Ashraf Ghani are up in Kandahar City,
as well as a few for Karzai, and even fewer for other candidates.
Most Karzai advertising has been in the form of new, large posters
attached to Afghan National Police (ANP) vehicles (not just the
small windshield portraits these vehicles generally display). After
Canadian and U.S. police mentors suggested to Provincial Chief of
Police BG Matiullah that political advertising by the ANP violates
campaign laws, the posters appear to be coming off the ANP
vehicles.


6. Three international UNDP-Elect officials moved into
accommodations at the KPRT Camp Nathan Smith (CNS) on June 21.
Canadian leadership helped get the UNDP up and running in Kandahar,
after the UNDP had argued that its personnel would not be active in
Kandahar without a secure place to reside and work. The Canadians
also wanted to be close to UNDP in order to make it easier to get
information about the elections.

EIKENBERRY