GOVERNOR ATTA REVERSES COURSE TO BACK OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001486 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR SRAP HOLBROOKE, SCA/FO, SCA/A STATE PASS USAID E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF SUBJECT: GOVERNOR ATTA REVERSES COURSE TO BACK OPPOSITION Classified By: PRT-Sub National Governance Counselor Valerie C. Fowler for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Balkh Provincial Governor Mohammed Atta Noor disclosed to State PRT officer that he will back the opposition United Front (UF) candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah for president over President Karzai in the reversal of Atta's previous posture towards Karzai. This decision reflects what is shaping up to be a falling out between the two. Atta cited a number of factors for his decision: Karzai's low standing among many members of Atta's various support bases around the country, widespread failures of the Karzai government, and Karzai's controversial pick of Marchal Fahim as his First Vice Presidential running mate - a decision made without Atta's input. But the real reason for the split is unclear. Dr. Abdullah has a chance to beat Karzai, Atta belies, if the election is clean. Atta will not campaign publicly for Dr. Abdullah, but will work behind the scenes to enlist the support of different communities for the UF candidate. Citing his own limited capacity for the job, Atta said he is not entertaining a presidential bid in 2014. Atta Supporting Abdullah for President -------------- ¶2. (SBU) During a private conversation on June 4, Governor Atta told State PRT officer that he will throw his support behind UF candidate Dr. Abdullah in the presidential election. For the past several weeks, Atta has held meetings to discuss the election with elders and representatives from the nine provinces of the northern region, and from the provinces of Ghor, Badghis, Paktiya, Gardez, and Kabul. (Note: Gardez is the province governed by Atta's nemesis and Hezb-e-Islami northern leader, Juma Khan Hamdard, who has also announced his support for Karzai. End Note.) According to Atta, common response is that they do not want to give Karzai another term in office. "Things will only get worse" if Karzai reelected -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Atta bluntly called Karzai's administration "rotten." Atta said that he has served as Balkh governor for the past five years with enthusiasm and dedication and did not want his achievements blemished by casting his lot with the president again. He claimed that Karzai has been a poor leader and repeated the long-standing charge that members of Karzai's family are involved in narcotics smuggling. Atta asserted that since Karzai took office, the security situation across the country has worsened, poppy cultivation is up in places where it had not been previously, and more ethnic/tribal disputes have broken out. "What can we hope for from Karzai if we give him five more years?" Atta asked, rhetorically. "Things will only get worse." Unhappy with Fahim pick as First VP -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Karzai's selection of former UF member Marshal Fahim (a Tajik - like Atta) as his First VP running mate continues to trouble Atta. Karzai had offered the First VP position to Atta months back, but Atta declined, citing his own "lack of capacity." Atta said his refusal to accept the position did not mean that Karzai should have offered the job to Fahim, who, in Atta's view has a bad reputation. That Karzai settled on Fahim, without prior consultation with Atta, was an affront and amounts to an attempt to cause fractures within Atta's Jamiat Party, Atta said. What really happened? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) What Atta did not tell us is that, up until the past few weeks, he had supported the president's reelection bid. During the Nowruz festival last March, Atta saw to it that the Blue Mosque and city billboards in Mazar-e Sharif were adorned with images of Karzai, and he praised Karzai's achievements during his Nowruz speech. He also gave instructions recently to his Jamiat Party's foot soldiers to begin paving the way for the Karzai campaign. ¶6. (SBU) Even Mohammed Sabeer, a brother-in-law to Atta and Karzai's campaign manager for the northern region, does not fully understand what happened between the two. He told KABUL 00001486 002 OF 002 State PRT FSN on June 5 that tensions came to a head within the last two weeks when Atta went to see Karzai in Kabul and was "poorly received" by the president. Since then, Sabeer claims, Atta has met with groups of his supporters from around the country and spent lots of cash to win their votes for Dr. Abdullah. Sabeer asked for guidance from Karzai's office on how to entice Atta back to the Karzai camp, and plans to meet Atta soon to do just that. "If Atta refuses to support Karzai, he (Atta) will be the loser," Sabeer predicted. Dr. Abdullah can win if election is clean -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Asked what he made of the agreement announced by the Junbesh and Wahdat (Mohaqqeq) Parties to support Karzai, Atta acknowledged that it makes things tougher for the opposition. But he said Dr. Abdullah can beat Karzai if the election is clean. Atta discounts the influence a person like Mohaqqeq still has on people, and believes that he (Atta) has more influence over many of the communities that Junbesh and Wahdat are counting on for votes. Junbesh and Wahdat only made that alliance "hoping to get revenue-generating positions from Karzai that their members can use to enrich themselves." Campaigning behind the scenes -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Atta said that as a civil servant, he would not campaign publicly for Dr. Abdullah, but would work behind the scenes to draw supporters to the challenger's camp. Asked about his prospects of remaining governor if Karzai is reelected, Atta remarked dispassionately that Karzai "will probably still need me" but that he would resign his post should that happen. Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) There may be other reasons for Atta's reversal of position, still opaque, beyond those already mentioned. We will sound those out during future meetings with Atta and his associates. How deep the rift and whether Atta might be enticed back to the Karzai fold remains open to questions. EIKENBERRY