KARZAI AIDE SPECULATES ON POST-ELECTION CABINET;

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 001426

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF
SUBJECT: KARZAI AIDE SPECULATES ON POST-ELECTION CABINET;
DOSTUM RETURN LIKELY

REF: KABUL 1398

Classified By: POL Counselor Alan Yu for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Palace Chief of Policy Sebghatullah Sanjar told us
on June 2 that Karzai had offered a number of positions in
his next government to prominent Afghans in exchange for
their endorsements. Sanjar asserted Karzai struck those
deals without regard to those individuals' abilities or
willingness to carry out policy in line with the government.
Sanjar believes Karzai's attempt to consolidate support from
every corner of the Afghan political establishment will
hamper his administration's ability to pursue coherent
policies and implement governance reforms. Instead, he
predicted that such an approach would result in a
disorganized central government with several powerful figures
creating personal fiefdoms in their ministries or areas of
responsibility.


2. (C) Sanjar claimed Karzai had promised the Foreign
Ministry to former presidential candidate and Afghan Millat
party leader Anwarulhaq Ahadi. Ahadi had the necessary
skills for the job, but Sanjar warned that Ahadi would stack
the Ministry with members of his Pashtun-nationalist
political party. Ahadi predicted other ethnic groups would
suspect government collusion with Pakistan's intelligence
service. Other factional leaders would divide up the
remaining ministries and pack them with supporters, usually
from their own ethnic group. For example,
Wahdat-e-Islami-Mardum leader Haji Mohammed Mohaqqeq has
asked Karzai to appoint Wahdat members to the transportation,
commerce, and higher education portfolios, ministries known
for their history of graft and ethnic favoritism.


3. (C) Sanjar also expected former Uzbek warlord Gen.
Abdul Rashid Dostum, currently in exile in Turkey, to return
to Kabul after the election to assume a post in the
government. Karzai promised earlier this year to welcome
Dostum's return in exchange for his help in pushing Junbesh's
current leaders to endorse the government. Dostum
understands he is too controversial a figure to lead the
Ministry of Defense, but has reportedly requested a role with
more authority than the largely ceremonial ARMY chief of
staff position he once held. Sanjar reported that Karzai was
considering creating several "regional commander" roles after
the election for powerful figures like Dostum, Balkh Governor
Atta and Nangarhar Governor Sherzai, from which they could
control policy across several provinces.
EIKENBERRY