KARZAI AIDE SPECULATES ON POST-ELECTION CABINET;

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 001426 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL AF SUBJECT: KARZAI AIDE SPECULATES ON POST-ELECTION CABINET; DOSTUM RETURN LIKELY REF: KABUL 1398 Classified By: POL Counselor Alan Yu for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Palace Chief of Policy Sebghatullah Sanjar told us on June 2 that Karzai had offered a number of positions in his next government to prominent Afghans in exchange for their endorsements. Sanjar asserted Karzai struck those deals without regard to those individuals' abilities or willingness to carry out policy in line with the government. Sanjar believes Karzai's attempt to consolidate support from every corner of the Afghan political establishment will hamper his administration's ability to pursue coherent policies and implement governance reforms. Instead, he predicted that such an approach would result in a disorganized central government with several powerful figures creating personal fiefdoms in their ministries or areas of responsibility. ¶2. (C) Sanjar claimed Karzai had promised the Foreign Ministry to former presidential candidate and Afghan Millat party leader Anwarulhaq Ahadi. Ahadi had the necessary skills for the job, but Sanjar warned that Ahadi would stack the Ministry with members of his Pashtun-nationalist political party. Ahadi predicted other ethnic groups would suspect government collusion with Pakistan's intelligence service. Other factional leaders would divide up the remaining ministries and pack them with supporters, usually from their own ethnic group. For example, Wahdat-e-Islami-Mardum leader Haji Mohammed Mohaqqeq has asked Karzai to appoint Wahdat members to the transportation, commerce, and higher education portfolios, ministries known for their history of graft and ethnic favoritism. ¶3. (C) Sanjar also expected former Uzbek warlord Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, currently in exile in Turkey, to return to Kabul after the election to assume a post in the government. Karzai promised earlier this year to welcome Dostum's return in exchange for his help in pushing Junbesh's current leaders to endorse the government. Dostum understands he is too controversial a figure to lead the Ministry of Defense, but has reportedly requested a role with more authority than the largely ceremonial army chief of staff position he once held. Sanjar reported that Karzai was considering creating several "regional commander" roles after the election for powerful figures like Dostum, Balkh Governor Atta and Nangarhar Governor Sherzai, from which they could control policy across several provinces. EIKENBERRY