PANJSHIR GOVERNOR MAY TAKE ON KAPISA INSURGENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 001320

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM
STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF
SUBJECT: PANJSHIR GOVERNOR MAY TAKE ON KAPISA INSURGENCY

Classified By: PRT and Sub-National Governance Director Valerie C. Fowl
er for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

Summary
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1. (C) Panjshir Governor Haji Bahlol reported to PRTOff May
24 that President Karzai is contemplating moving him to
Kapisa province following the August 20 presidential election
(contingent upon Karzai's re-election). Bahlol, with a
reputation for toughness and a track record of maintaining
security in Panjshir, would be charged with working to bring
the insurgency in several of Kapisa's districts under control.

Who Will be the Governor or Panjshir?
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2. (C) Bahlol reported that Karzai had already tasked
National Directorate for Security (NDS) Chief (and Panjshiri)
Amrullah Saleh to vet the relatively unknown "Haji Rahim," a
resident of the Rokha district of Panjshir, as a potential
successor to Bahlol. Bahlol appeared dismissive of Rahim's
credentials, saying he was uneducated and "had only one eye."
Saleh reportedly had also given Karzai a negative assessment
of Rahim. When asked who might be qualified to succeed him,
Bahlol named several prominent Panjshiris, including Army
Chief of Staff Bismullah Khan, NDS Chief Saleh, Parliament
Speaker Qanooni, former foreign minister and presidential
candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, and former defense minister
and vice presidential candidate Marshal Fahim. Since each of
these individuals either already holds a major national-level
office or, in Abdullah,s case, is in open opposition to the
president, none strikes us as a likely candidate for governor
of Panjshir.

Bahlol's Kapisa History
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3. (C) Bahlol is no stranger to Kapisa: he fought there as a
mujahedeen commander and maintains several contacts in the
province. Bahlol did not seem disappointed at the prospect
of the move and appeared even to relish the challenge. On
several previous occasions, Bahlol had told the PRT that, if
given the opportunity, he could "clean-up" the insurgency in
Kapisa in about three months. He would replace Abu Bakr, who
has had a troublesome and less than effective tenure.

Comment
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4. (C) Bahlol's news came as a surprise to the PRT. One of
Afghanistan's longest-serving governors, he appears to enjoy
serving as Governor of Panjshir, governs with the respect of
the people and has no obvious successor. That noted, if
Karzai were to take the risk of removing a strong and popular
governor from Panjshir, Kapisa would be the logical place to
deploy him. Bahlol's no nonsense leadership style, combined
with his proven track record on security, might be just what
Kapisa needs even if a 90-day "clean up" is wildly optimistic
given the intractability of the insurgency. A potential
successor to Bahlol remains an open question. Abdullah (if
he is not elected president),Fahim or Qanooni would seem
unlikely to be interested in serving as governor of a small
province.
EIKENBERRY