PANJSHIR GOVERNOR MAY TAKE ON KAPISA INSURGENCY

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 001320 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR SRAP, SCA/FO, SCA/A, EUR/RPM STATE PASS USAID FOR ASIA/SCAA E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM AF SUBJECT: PANJSHIR GOVERNOR MAY TAKE ON KAPISA INSURGENCY Classified By: PRT and Sub-National Governance Director Valerie C. Fowl er for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Panjshir Governor Haji Bahlol reported to PRTOff May 24 that President Karzai is contemplating moving him to Kapisa province following the August 20 presidential election (contingent upon Karzai's re-election). Bahlol, with a reputation for toughness and a track record of maintaining security in Panjshir, would be charged with working to bring the insurgency in several of Kapisa's districts under control. Who Will be the Governor or Panjshir? -------------- ¶2. (C) Bahlol reported that Karzai had already tasked National Directorate for Security (NDS) Chief (and Panjshiri) Amrullah Saleh to vet the relatively unknown "Haji Rahim," a resident of the Rokha district of Panjshir, as a potential successor to Bahlol. Bahlol appeared dismissive of Rahim's credentials, saying he was uneducated and "had only one eye." Saleh reportedly had also given Karzai a negative assessment of Rahim. When asked who might be qualified to succeed him, Bahlol named several prominent Panjshiris, including Army Chief of Staff Bismullah Khan, NDS Chief Saleh, Parliament Speaker Qanooni, former foreign minister and presidential candidate Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, and former defense minister and vice presidential candidate Marshal Fahim. Since each of these individuals either already holds a major national-level office or, in Abdullah,s case, is in open opposition to the president, none strikes us as a likely candidate for governor of Panjshir. Bahlol's Kapisa History -------------- ¶3. (C) Bahlol is no stranger to Kapisa: he fought there as a mujahedeen commander and maintains several contacts in the province. Bahlol did not seem disappointed at the prospect of the move and appeared even to relish the challenge. On several previous occasions, Bahlol had told the PRT that, if given the opportunity, he could "clean-up" the insurgency in Kapisa in about three months. He would replace Abu Bakr, who has had a troublesome and less than effective tenure. Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) Bahlol's news came as a surprise to the PRT. One of Afghanistan's longest-serving governors, he appears to enjoy serving as Governor of Panjshir, governs with the respect of the people and has no obvious successor. That noted, if Karzai were to take the risk of removing a strong and popular governor from Panjshir, Kapisa would be the logical place to deploy him. Bahlol's no nonsense leadership style, combined with his proven track record on security, might be just what Kapisa needs even if a 90-day "clean up" is wildly optimistic given the intractability of the insurgency. A potential successor to Bahlol remains an open question. Abdullah (if he is not elected president),Fahim or Qanooni would seem unlikely to be interested in serving as governor of a small province. EIKENBERRY