UNHCR, ICRC STILL WATCHING FOR CROSS-BORDER FLIGHT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001257

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

PRM FOR PRM/ECA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PHUM PREF UN AF PK
SUBJECT: UNHCR, ICRC STILL WATCHING FOR CROSS-BORDER FLIGHT
FROM PAKISTAN TO AFGHANISTAN

REF: 08 KABUL 2361

KABUL 00001257 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary. The leadership of Kabul-based offices of
the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and
the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) shared an
overview of their planning for potential movement of
Pakistani refugees to Afghanistan with the Refugee Affairs
Section. Both organizations believe it unlikely that a
significant number of refugees would flee to Afghanistan, but
they do have contingency plans to respond should new
movements occur. In the meantime, Afghan refugees
repatriating from Pakistan are reporting that insecurity was
one factor in their decision to return after decades in
exile, but the main factor was poor economic conditions in
Pakistan.


UNHCR and ICRC on Flight from Pakistan: Watchful Waiting


2. (SBU) On May 10 UNHCR's Country Representative for
Afghanistan, Ewen MacLeod, told RefCoord and a visiting
Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (State/PRM)
delegation that UNHCR is following the situation within
Pakistan. In addition to the Pakistani military offensive in
the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) districts of Lower
Dir, Buner, and Swat, UNHCR is tracking the impact of
sectarian violence in Hangu District, further south. Note:
Insecurity in Hangu caused cross-border population movements
in prior years. In 2008 a non-governmental organization
(NGO) implementing a health program for PRM on behalf of
camp-based refugees in Hangu withdrew its personnel from
camps due to security concerns.


3. (SBU) UNHCR is not currently seeing significant numbers of
Pakistanis moving from NWFP to Afghanistan. Rather,
movements appear to be within NWFP, where internally
displaced persons (IDPs) can find assistance through family,
government, and/or humanitarian organizations. (See
extensive reporting from Islamabad and Peshawar.) UNHCR is
closely watching the border situation from its sub-office in
Kunar Province. In autumn 2008 approximately 20,000
Pakistanis, and Afghans who had been living in the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA),sought refuge in
Afghanistan from military operations in FATA, reftel.
MacLeod said Kunar and Nangarhar residents were still
sheltering 12,000-13,000 Pakistanis. They have not required
external support beyond the shelter and winterization
assistance provided when they first fled across the border.
MacLeod also mentioned that the newly reinstated UN Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Kabul
is working off a pre-existing contingency plan for 50,000
persons and has been checking with partner UN agencies to
ensure they have stocks to assist with a rapid influx from
Pakistan.


4. (SBU) In a separate May 12 conversation, ICRC Head of
Delegation Reto Stocker echoed UNHCR's comments and predicted
most conflict-driven movements in Pakistan would be internal.
New IDP camps and delivery assistance points to assist those
fleeing conflict have been set up and widely publicized.
Should the situation change, the ICRC is prepared to draw
from its regular operational stocks and could support up to
3,000 families (approximately 18,000 persons) in eastern
Afghanistan. As in the past, the ICRC would rely upon its
partner network of Afghanistan Red Crescent Society
volunteers to deliver assistance in Kunar Province and would
coordinate with the UN on dividing up geographic areas of
response. Stocker noted that the ICRC's and UNHCR's
Afghanistan and Pakistan delegations had all been sharing
information cross-border for contingency planning.


Afghan Refugee Voluntary Repatriation Slow and Deliberate So
Far


5. (SBU) UNHCR is also watching the impact of insecurity and
IDP movements on the 1.7 million registered Afghan refugees
in Pakistan. MacLeod estimated it would take two or three
weeks to see if the counter-insurgency operations in Pakistan
result in more rapid repatriation. UNHCR's records indicate
114,000 Afghan refugees live in the most affected districts
of NWFP (Lower Dir, Buner, and Swabi). UNHCR sub-offices in
Gardez and Jalalabad are prepared to accept a rapid influx of
50,000 returnees. Coordination on unusual movements is being
done with ICRC in Kunar and with the UNHCR sub-office in
Peshawar, where refugees present themselves at a voluntary

KABUL 00001257 002.2 OF 002


repatriation center (VRC) prior to departing for Afghanistan.


6. (SBU) May 11 we visited the Kabul encashment center, where
135 Afghan families participated in voluntary, assisted
repatriation. UNHCR confirmed that returnees - over 12,700
between April 5 and May 8 - were coming back with their
personal belongings and families intact. They had not left
in haste or involuntarily. Note: Refugees check out of
Pakistan at VRCs, and check in to Afghanistan at encashment
centers. Between March 1 and May 1, 2008, more than 67,000
Afghan refugees repatriated from Pakistan with UNHCR
assistance. UNHCR's assisted repatriation operations this
year did not begin until April, and those only through
Peshawar, with operations through Quetta indefinitely
suspended. It is too early to tell whether the decrease rate
of returns is due to restricted operations or other factors.


7. (SBU) Several returnees at the Kabul encashment center
spoke separately with Kabul Refugee Affairs Specialist. Most
said poor economic conditions in Pakistan were the main
factor in deciding to return. A few said they feared
spreading insecurity could eventually reach them in Pakistan.
They chose to return sooner rather than later, reckoning
that the international community would turn its attention to
the humanitarian crisis in Pakistan and withdraw its support
for Afghan returnees. In particular, they wanted to take
advantage of the cash assistance provided to returnees
(approximately $100 per person) while they thought it would
still be offered.


8. (SBU) Comment: Both UNHCR and ICRC, which regularly deal
with internal and cross-border movements of people in
insecure areas, appear well-prepared for a rapid cross-border
movement should the situation in Pakistan worsen and drive
flight into Afghanistan. Kabul Refugee Affairs' Section will
maintain contact with UNHCR and ICRC on cross-border
movements and periodically check with the Kabul and Jalalabad
encashment centers in the coming weeks to track motivations
for, and voluntariness of, Afghan refugee returns.
EIKENBERRY