SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LEAHY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KABUL 001226 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL OREP PTER NARC PHUM KDEM SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL LEAHY ¶1. (SBU) Embassy Kabul warmly welcomes your visit. ¶2. (SBU) The government and the public here have welcomed the Administration's new strategy, agreeing on the merit and priority of refocusing on defeating al Qaeda to prevent it, and like-minded local and regional groups, from returning to Afghanistan. President Obama's decision to send 21,000 additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan, including 4,000 to train Afghan army and police personnel is one essential component of this effort. Building governance capacity of Afghan officials at both the national and local levels is another essential component of our new strategy, and we are expanding the U.S. civilian presence to meet the challenge. Finally, we are working with Afghans and international partners to ensure the success of the August 20 presidential and provincial council election. Elections -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The August elections influence nearly everything political here. Presidential candidate registration closed May 8, with at least 44 candidates turning in completed registration forms. President Karzai appears to hold a significant advantage over his nearest competitors. In the end, only three of the half-dozen rumored top-tier challengers registered, and two of those signed up alongside relatively obscure running mates, signaling a lack of broad-based support for their campaigns among Afghanistan's political powerbrokers. The other registered candidates include two women, communist-era figures, and parliamentary backbenchers. Karzai is confident that he will win re-election. ¶4. (SBU) Opposition candidates are urging and welcoming international support for a level playing field and free and transparent elections. The Independent Election Commission (IEC),with our backing and technical support from UNDP, has worked to even the odds and foster competition. The IEC resisted Karzai's ploys to advance the election date to spring 2009, which would have cut off the opposition's nascent attempts at organization. It issued a decree in May, spelling out government officials' duty of impartiality. A key part of its mission is to ensure that government media provide equal access to candidates. The IEC will fund some $2 million in private air time for candidates - money that comes from our $40 million contribution to the $224 million election budget. We are stepping up our own voter education work with women, youth, media, and other civil society groups, adding an extra $700,000 in State Department democracy program funding in May. We and others in the international community are pressing the government to issue its own Hatch Act-like regulations, and urging it to finalize a media law strengthening protections for freedom of expression, including in political campaigns. Complex Security Situation -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Civilian casualties from coalition operations are the most sensitive security issue between the coalition and the government, and increasingly with the Afghan people themselves. You will arrive during a joint Afghan National Security Force and Coalition investigation, examining events surrounding a complex series of Taliban attacks on civilians, ANSF and coalition forces in Farah province. The joint investigation team has confirmed that a number of civilians were killed in the course of the fighting, but has been unable to determine with certainty which of those casualties were Taliban fighters and which were non-combatants. The even more volatile issue is the question of how many civilian casualties were the result of the coalition air strikes and how many were purposely killed by the Taliban. The challenge of how to balance security operations and non-combatant protection continues. ISAF Commander General McKiernan directed in December substantial changes to coalition tactics, techniques and procedures to minimize civilian casualties. ¶6. (SBU) Afghanistan will remain short of security personnel for the foreseeable future. There are about 75,000 Afghan army, 87,000 Afghan police, and about 58,000 international military personnel to maintain security. The Afghan army is growing by more than 2,500 personnel per month and should reach 134,000 in 2011. U.S forces are expected to top 68,000 in 2010; there are approximately 32,000 non-U.S. international forces in Afghanistan. We are working with Interior Minister Atmar to accelerate police reform and training, reduce corruption, and create vetted, specialized KABUL 00001226 002 OF 004 police units. Developing Governance Abilities -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Karzai struggles to balance between institutional and traditional informal governance, in an environment of poverty, social exhaustion, illicit power centers arising from decades of political breakdown, governmental incapacity, criminality, and insurgency. Electoral dynamics are further complicating the problem, leading Karzai to make expedient decisions on one hand, but also to appoint top-flight leaders like Minister Atmar to deliver police services. ¶8. (U) In order to accelerate improved responsiveness in Afghan institutions and local capacity, our new strategy calls for an increase in the U.S. civilian presence alongside the increases in U.S. military personnel. New positions in Afghanistan under consideration in the FY-08 supplemental request from all agencies would total 421. There are many more positions with separate funding mechanisms. Of the 421, we will fill 56 by July 2009, 49 in the field and 7 in Kabul. The remaining 365, split between 224 in the field and 141 in Kabul, will arrive between August 2009 and March 2009, phased in coordination with arrival of military units and establishment of safe operating environment. The hires will comprise the following offices and agencies: various State Department and USAID elements, Department of Justice (DOJ) prosecutors and the FBI (Legal Attache),Department of Treasury, Department of Homeland Security (DHS),Department of Transportation (DOT),Federal Aviation Administration (FAA),Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA),Health and Human Services (HHS/CDC),and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. ¶9. (SBU) In Kabul, the focus is on building capacity; creating a merit-based, professional bureaucracy; and delivering services to the public. Strong ministries include Foreign Affairs, Defense, Public Health, Education, Finance, Communications, Rural Development, and Counternarcotics. Interior and Agriculture stand out among ministries due to strong leadership. We work closely with those entities, but also work effectively with the other ministries, although mixed agendas or a legacy of weakness slow progress. For instance, the Supreme Court and the Ministry of Justice suffer from the acute lack of qualified professionals, a legal system that combines elements of Sharia, tribal, and Western law, and a lack of national consensus on the way forward. ¶10. (SBU) Outside Kabul, U.S. civilian and military efforts are aimed at strengthening local government at all levels, through Brigade Task Forces, PRTs, and (with the upcoming civilian increase) District Support Teams. We work equally with traditional leadership structures and those who gained power through force or wealth during the days of conflict, but have proven themselves ready to cooperate with constitutional government and rule of law. Lack of local consensus, traditionally weak connections between the capital and provinces, long-standing rivalries, distrust among communities, and the presence of insurgent or criminal spoilers complicate our task. The goal is to support and help develop responsive, reliable leadership in local communities, bound to the capital in a reciprocal way. Little Momentum on Taliban reconciliation -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Reconciliation with Taliban or other insurgent leaders is controversial here. Many welcome the possibility of reduced violence and instability, while others (mainly non-Pashtuns, women, and certain civil society groups) fear a Pashtun deal could come at the expense of their interests. So far, all government reconciliation efforts have been premised on respect for the constitution, which has allowed us to support these initiatives. Although the Fall 2008 Saudi attempt to begin talks generated much interest, there has been little concrete progress in that or any other initiative. Karzai credits Egypt's Sheikh al-Azhar with a substantial helpful role, and hopes for further support from al-Azhar for the reconciliation process. U.S. policy on the issues is as stated by President Obama on March 27: "There will also be no peace without reconciliation among former enemies... That's why we will work with local leaders, the Afghan government, and international partners to have a reconciliation process in every province." Economy -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Recovery in agricultural production, following KABUL 00001226 003 OF 004 severe drought in 2008, is expected to boost real economic growth to about nine percent in 2009-10. The Central Bank is well-led. Inflation is virtually flat, and the Afghan currency is stable. The pre-election period is not conducive to implementing economic reforms to support private sector development. That said, relatively young, dynamic and reformist ministers of Finance, Commerce and Agriculture are taking positive steps to improve the business climate. Afghanistan's key economic challenge is to establish conditions for self-sustaining growth and strengthen fiscal sustainability so that it can reduce dependence on foreign aid over time. It remains one of the poorest countries in the world and far from meeting this goal. ¶13. (SBU) In our economic assistance programs, the U.S. is gradually channeling more aid through the Afghan government, and urging other donors to do the same, while ensuring proper transparency and accountability. Our motto is: "Afghan leadership, Afghan capacity, Afghan sustainability." The U.S. is also placing renewed emphasis in its assistance programs supporting Afghan agriculture, both as a basis for sustainable growth and to create licit economic alternatives to the insurgency and poppy cultivation. U.S. assistance will focus on agriculture programs that create jobs, develop roads and water systems supporting farm production and trade, and expand farm credit opportunities. We are also encouraging greater Af-Pak cooperation, for example to enable transshipment of Afghan agricultural exports across Pakistan to the massive Indian market. Human Rights Work Ahead -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Aspects of Afghanistan's human rights record remain poor, including violence and discrimination against women, lack of due process and a weak rule of law, and intimidation restricting the exercise of free speech. The Afghan government has shown a lack of will to actively promote and protect human rights, particularly freedom of expression and women's rights. ¶15. (SBU) We, and others, are tracking two high profile freedom of expression cases. In October 2008 the Afghan Supreme Court upheld a local court's conviction and 20-year prison sentence for student Sayed Pervez Kambakhsh, purportedly for distributing an article over the Internet about women's rights that defamed Islam. The international community is pushing for a presidential pardon, and we would ask you to do the same privately with Karzai. Also, Ghows Zalmai and Mullah Qari Mushtaq are challenging their 20-year sentences, handed down by a Kabul Appeals Court in February, for publishing and distributing a Dari translation of the Koran that did not include the original Arabic text. ¶16. (SBU) In March President Karzai signed a Shia Family Law with provisions violating women's constitutional guarantee to equal rights. Pressure from the USG, the international community, and Afghan human rights activists has blocked its enactment, pending a constitutional review. The Ministry of Justice is charged with this review, which we are closely monitoring. The Embassy continues to raise our concerns with the law and our expectation of a transparent review process inclusive of women and civil society. On a more positive note, civil society and the Ministry of Women's Affairs drafted a progressive domestic violence bill, currently under review by the Ministry of Justice. Narcotics: Positive Trends, Challenge in the South -------------- -------------- ¶17. (SBU) The narcotics challenge continues in the south, where seven provinces now account for 98 percent of the country's opium, and narcotics trafficking and the insurgency have become mutually sustaining. In the coming year, U.S. counter-narcotics efforts will increase focus on boosting licit agriculture, improving local governance, and increasing interdiction of drug traffickers to disrupt the link between narcotics trafficking and the insurgency. We will continue poppy eradication efforts, but we will shift emphasis and resources more towards the former objectives. The ISAF-led Combined Joint Inter-Agency Task Force has begun comprehensive counter-narcotics planning for 2009-2010 combining the full range of civilian and military resources. ¶18. (SBU) There is some promising news. Poppy cultivation dropped by 19 percent in 2008, the first reduction since ¶2005. Just as notably, poppy-free provinces grew from 13 to 18, or more than half of all provinces. Governors in three formerly major poppy cultivating provinces - Badakhshan, Balkh, and Nangarhar - have succeeded in eliminating or nearly eliminating poppy cultivation. Poppy cultivation has KABUL 00001226 004 OF 004 died away by itself in other parts of the north and east of the country. This year, Helmand Governor Gulabuddin Mangal, whose province by itself produces more than half of Afghanistan's opium poppy, conducted a comprehensive multi-season campaign against poppy cultivation in a 100-square mile area of central Helmand. Mangal's campaign combined public information, agricultural assistance, and law enforcement, including eradication by Afghan police with force protection from the Afghan army. The UN Office for Drugs and Crime believes poppy cultivation has dropped substantially in Helmand and predicts more poppy-free provinces in other parts of the country. International Community and Afghanistan -------------- ¶19. (SBU) Relations between the government and the international community are uneven. The UN presence is strong; SRSG Kai Eide plays a key coordination role, but suffers from insufficient budgetary and personnel commitment from New York. International support is holding as demonstrated at recent conferences, including the March 31 Hague Conference where more than 80 countries and international organizations reaffirmed their long-term commitment to Afghanistan and the April 2009 JCMB where donors committed to providing funding for an almost 5,000 member increase in the Kabul police force in time for August elections. EIKENBERRY