PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR PROVINCIAL COUNCIL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 001224 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM AF SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR PROVINCIAL COUNCIL REGISTRATION SHOW COMPETITIVE RACES, INCREASING FEMALE PARTICIPATION REF: A. KABUL 891 ¶B. KABUL 1196 ¶1. (SBU) With the May 8 close of the candidate registration period for the August 2009 elections, preliminary IEC numbers show 3,324 provincial council (PC) candidate registrations for Afghanistan's 420 PC seats. As in 2005, candidate registration surged in the final 24 hours of the registration period - almost doubling the 1,725 candidates reported registered in the late afternoon on May 7. Female candidate registration rates exceeded those in 2005. Break down by gender and province is at paragraph five. The Independent Election Commission (IEC) is now focusing on scrutiny of the many candidate registration packets submitted during the two-week registration window (ref A). Ongoing review may lead to the disqualification of some candidates (ref B). URBAN AND RURAL MIX -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The urban province of Kabul led PC registration with 531 candidates signing up to compete for the 29 available seats (21 male/8 female). With 22 male and 8 female candidates per available seat, Kabul has the highest ratio of any province by a significant margin. Nangarhar, also urban, stands a distant second with 286 candidates for 19 available seats (14 male/5 female). This represents the second highest man-to-seat ratio after Kabul (19.5 to one), but a significant drop in the women's ratio (2.5 to one); Nangarhar is usually dubbed a Pashtun province. Rural, northern Jowzjan with 75 candidates for nine seats (6 male/3 female) holds the second highest proportion (five to one) of female candidates to seats. Herat, home to the large western city, and rural Baghlan and Takhar rounded out the top five provinces for total number of candidates. WOMEN CANDIDATES TURN OUT -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The electoral law reserves 25 percent of provincial council seats for women. The 342 registered female candidates represent a 20 percent increase from 2005's 285 female candidates; male participation increased only four percent. Only two of the 124 female reserved seats lack a potential candidate - one in Uruzgan and one in Kandahar, an improvement from the four unfilled seats in 2005. In 29 provinces, there is a ratio of two-to-one or better of female candidates to quota seats, making these races competitive. Overall female candidacy stands around 11 percent, slightly higher than participation in 2005. NORTH LEADS THE SOUTH -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The northeastern provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar, Baghlan and Kunduz had the highest regional participation with 120 or more candidates registering in each province. Nangarhar stood out in the east, but also has more than double the number of available seats and a higher population than neighboring Nuristan, Kunar and Laghman. Helmand led southern provinces with 58 candidates, Uruzgan trailed in last place for any province with only 26. ¶5. (SBU) Registration numbers from the IEC listed in order of total candidates: - Kabul: 531 Candidates, 464 Men/67 Women; 29 Seats, 8 quota - Nangarhar: 286 Candidates, 273 Men/13 Women; 19 Seats, 5 quota - Baghlan: 197 Candidates, 189 Men/8 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Herat: 189 Candidates, 163 Men/26 Women; 19 Seats, 5 quota - Takhar: 155 Candidates, 145 Men/10 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Balkh: 141 Candidates, 125 Men/16 Women; 19 Seats, 5 quota - Kunduz: 131 Candidates, 118 Men/13 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Badakhshan: 120 Candidates, 110 Men/10 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Parwan: 115 Candidates, 109 Men/6 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Ghazni: 102 Candidates, 93 Men/9 Women; 19 Seats, 5 quota - Bamyan: 99 Candidates, 93 Men/6 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Dai Kundi: 94 Candidates, 86 Men/8 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Faryab: 88 Candidates, 77 Men/11 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Ghor: 82 Candidates, 75 Men/7 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Jowzjan: 75 Candidates, 61 Men/14 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Paktia: 72 Candidates, 67 Men/5 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Samangan: 72 Candidates, 65 Men/7 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Laghman: 67 Candidates, 62 Men/5 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Kunar: 63 Candidates, 58 Men/5 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Sar-E-Pol: 62 Candidates, 52 Men/10 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota KABUL 00001224 002 OF 002 - Helmand: 58 Candidates, 51 Men/7 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Kapisa: 56 Candidates, 50 Men/6 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Panjshir: 52 Candidates, 45 Men/7 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Logar: 49 Candidates, 39 Men/10 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Badghis: 48 Candidates, 37 Men/11 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Kandahar: 45 Candidates, 42 Men/3 Women; 15 Seats, 4 quota - Wardak: 42 Candidates, 35 Men/7 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Khost: 41 Candidates, 35 Men/6 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Farah: 35 Candidates, 28 Men/7 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Nimruz: 34 Candidates, 28 Men/6 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Zabul: 34 Candidates, 28 Men/6 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Nuristan: 32 Candidates, 28 Men/4 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Paktika: 29 Candidates, 25 Men/4 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota - Uruzgan: 28 Candidates, 26 Men/2 Women; 9 Seats, 3 quota EIKENBERRY