ASHRAF GHANI SOUNDS OUT THEMES FOR POSSIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KABUL 000012

SIPDIS

KABUL FOR USFOR-A
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CRS
CG CJTF-82, POLAD, JICCENT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/07/2018
TAGS: PGOV AF
SUBJECT: ASHRAF GHANI SOUNDS OUT THEMES FOR POSSIBLE
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN

Classified By: Political Counselor Alan Yu for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C/NF) Former Interior Minister Ashraf Ghani has
launched a high-minded, academic critique of the Afghan
government, blasting administrative incompetence and
President Karzai's refusal to fight high-level corruption for
destabilizing the country. In a Dec. 31 conversation with
PolCouns, Ghani said he has been holding meetings during his
periodic trips to Afghanistan since July and has determined
there is a "negative consensus" concerning Karzai's
performance. Ghani has not committed himself to run for the
presidency, but his language suggests he is seriously
considering the option.


2. (C/NF) Ghani worked as a project director for many
years at the World Bank. He served as Afghanistan,s
Interior Minister from 2002 to 2004, then took the position
of Kabul University chancellor for a short time. He now runs
the Institute of State Effectiveness, a think tank in
Washington. Ghani was also a dark horse candidate in 2005
for UN Secretary General, a position eventually won by Ban
Ki-moon. His name emerged last year as one of the more
prominent potential challengers to Karzai. The international
community knows Ghani well, while his connections to his
native Logar province could chip away at some of Karzai's
Pashtun support base. However, we have seen little
grassroots-level support for a Ghani candidacy. Ghani,s
patrician manner and his lengthy exile in the West give many
Afghans the image of a leader out of touch with the plight of
ordinary citizens. His short terms as finance minister and
university chancellor also leave many Afghan critics with the
impression of someone unable to finish a job.


3. (C/NF) Ghani will return to Afghanistan in a few
weeks to visit the country's provinces and continue his
"dialogue" with ordinary Afghans. In addition to corruption,
he cited several challenges requiring immediate action,
including the drought in northern provinces, highway
security, and criminality in provinces near Kabul. He
welcomed U.S. plans to increase troops here, but at the same
time argued ISAF and the government had to shift the
counter-insurgency approach much more to a law-and-order
orientation. Ghani has told local media he will organize
task forces of supporters and national figures to address
each of the country's chief problems.


4. (C/NF) In our conversation and in recent media
interviews, Ghani ran through the problems of Afghanistan in
a high-minded, often wandering, academic manner. It's a
style unlikely to win Afghan voters, who are eager for
solutions. Ghani's proposals for more task forces and
"listening tours" do not give voters the man of action for
whom they are still searching.
WOOD