NO CLEAR TREND EVIDENT IN RECENT UNIVERSITY AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 000694

NOFORN
SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA; NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KWBG KPAL KDEM IS
SUBJECT: NO CLEAR TREND EVIDENT IN RECENT UNIVERSITY AND
EMPLOYEE ELECTION RESULTS

REF: A. GMP20090416762006

B. JERUSALEM 597

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Employee and student elections are widely
seen by Palestinians as indicators of the relative standing
of political factions at a given point in time. Recent
elections reveal no clear trend in favor of either Fatah or
Hamas, who continue to compete for influence and attempt to
score political points in these contests. End summary.

Elections Seen as Indicators
--------------


2. (C) Employee and student elections are widely seen by
Palestinians as indicators of the relative standing of
political factions at a given point in time. Recent UNRWA
staff union elections and student body elections at Birzeit
and Palestine Polytechnic University (Hebron) have been
seized upon by both Fatah and Hamas as evidence of their
popularity and their opponent's weaknesses.


3. (C) In March 25 UNRWA staff elections in Gaza, both Hamas
and a slate of PLO factions (including Fatah, PFLP, DFLP and
Palestinian People's Party) made competing claims to victory
(ref B). UNRWA staff unions are comprised of three sector
unions -- teachers, medical workers, and service
providers/clerks -- overseen by an executive committee. The
pro-PLO bloc won an overall majority in two of the three
sector unions, and therefore, will control the executive
committee while the pro-Hamas bloc won a majority of votes
(63 percent of the over 10,000 votes cast) and all eleven of
the seats allocated to the teachers' sector, the largest part
of UNRWA's work force. (Note: Following the announcement of
election results, UNRWA management sent a letter to staff
reminding them of their obligation to refrain from political
activities. Palestinian contacts said the election campaigns
were not publicly linked to the PLO or Hamas, but that the
results were touted by both sides once announced. UNRWA
officials reiterated to us their standing policy to
discipline any employees found to have participated in
political activity while employed by UNRWA. End note.)


4. (C) On April 15, student government elections were held
at Birzeit University and Palestine Polytechnic University
(PPU) in Hebron. At Birzeit, Fatah won 24 seats, compared
with Hamas' 22. Six seats went to smaller parties. Turnout
was high, at 85 percent of the student body. Hamas boycotted
PPU elections, handing Fatah 26 out of 31 seats. A National
Democratic Institute report dated April 17 assessed that
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad boycott student
government elections when they believe it cannot win, and
participate when they believe to contest is winable and it is
to their advantage to do so.


5. (SBU) Both parties claimed victory in the Birzeit
elections. An April 16 statement by Hamas (ref A) said that
"the fact that in this year's elections at Birzeit University
the Islamic bloc won three seats more than in last year's
elections is a substantial indication that the Palestinian
people embrace the resistance's platform." Fatah
Ramallah-district Secretary-General Ra'id Redwan said
publicly, "the results of the elections in Birzeit University
and the Polytechnic University in Hebron signal a
re-embracement by Palestinian youths (of) the Fatah
Movement." In April 2008, Fatah won 25 seats to Hamas' 19 at
Birzeit. Hamas was victorious in 2007 with 22 seats to
Fatah's 21. (Comment: Birzeit is not likely to be
representative of the Palestinian electorate as a whole on
absolute terms, but the trend of a narrowing gap between
Fatah and Hamas is seen by local analysts as potentially
significant. End comment.)

Security Crackdowns Limit Predictive Power
--------------


6. (C) A significant unknown in interpreting these election
results is the extent to which security forces and militant
groups exert pressure on voters and candidates. Hamas
routinely claims intimidation and targeting of its candidates
by PA security forces in the West Bank. Fatah has made
similar claims about Hamas' intimidation in Gaza.

Fatah Student Leaders Reflect on Birzeit Victory
-------------- ---


7. (C/NF) Fatah student activists from Birzeit told Poloff

JERUSALEM 00000694 002 OF 002


on April 22 that they were pleased with their victory in the
April 15 elections but had hoped to win more seats.
Coordinator of al-Shabibeh (Fatah Youth Movement) at Birzeit
Murad al-Khatib, and activists Awad Meshal and Qassam Marwan
Barghouti said PA President Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is
politically weak in the West Bank and the Birzeit Shabibeh
group purposefully distanced itself from both the PA and
Abbas himself during the campaign. Barghuti (eldest son of
jailed Fatah grassroots leader Marwan Barghuti) said the
campaign had used only pictures of the late Yasir Arafat, and
not a single picture of Abu Mazen.


8. (C/NF) Barghuti said Fatah's close relationship with the
United States is politically damaging. He asked Poloff if US
officials were secretly in contact with Hamas and expressed
disappointment when told we are not, saying that Shabibeh
would be eager to use such contacts to portray Hamas members
as hypocrites. He said he hoped the Fatah sixth party
congress would take place soon and observed that the failure
to hold a credible, democratic congress would be damaging to
the movement. However, he said, Shabibeh members are more
dedicated to Fatah than senior leadership and would not leave
the movement even if the congress is a disappointment.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Although nearly all analysts agree these types of
elections are indicators, deep divisions between Gaza and the
West Bank make it exceedingly difficult to read the tea
leaves. Commenting about upcoming internal elections in the
Fatah Youth Movement, Barghuti and Meshal, who are opponents
for student council president, both said that Palestinians
prefer to go into an election with the outcome already
decided. To the extent that Fatah and Hamas are uncertain of
their relative standing, each may judge the status quo to be
less risky than going forward with national elections in
January 2010.


WALLES