FATAH MEMBERS JOSTLE FOR INFLUENCE AHEAD OF SIXTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 000674 NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND NEA/IPA. PASS TO NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL PTER IS KPAL KWBG SUBJECT: FATAH MEMBERS JOSTLE FOR INFLUENCE AHEAD OF SIXTH PARTY CONGRESS REF: A) JERUSALEM 631 B) JERUSALEM 617 C) JERUSALEM 548 Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: As preparations for the Sixth Party Congress proceed, Fatah members have begun to jostle for influence over future membership in the Fatah Central Committee (FCC),which will be decided by the Congress. With delegate lists nearly finalized, aspiring Fatah leaders are competing for leadership and control of the movement. The stakes for Fatah and individual members are high in advance of elections for the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) and Presidency perhaps as early as January 2010. With West Bank reformers and the remnants of the "founding fathers" facing off, managing the Congress to an outcome that will not split the movement poses a significant leadership challenge to Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen). This telegram provides an early picture of several significant leadership trends as preparations for the Congress mature. End Summary. First Fatah Congress in 20 Years -------------- ¶2. (C) Fatah's senior leadership appears increasingly committed to staging the first Party Congress since 1989. In discussions in March and early April with the Consul General, President Abbas, PLO Chief Negotiator Sa'eb Erekat, Presidential Chief of Staff Rafik Husseini, FCC member Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala'a),Senior Advisor to Abu Mazen Akram Haniyeh, and PLC member Mohamed Dahlan all voiced guarded optimism that the long-delayed Congress will take place in the coming months. The venue for the Congress remains to be resolved, with Abu Mazen and West Bank reformers pushing for Bethlehem while others, particularly members of the diaspora, lobby for Cairo, Amman, or elsewhere abroad. Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala'a), a member of the Congress Preparatory Committee, stated publicly that the Committee will conclude its work and refer the issues of venue and participation to the FCC for final determination the week of April 19. Fight for Delegates Defines Rivals -------------- ¶3. (C) The Preparatory Committee is nearing completion of the delegate lists, with about 1,520 members expected to receive invitations, according to Fatah Revolutionary Council (FRC) members Adnan Samarah and Mohamed Maduni. Of these, 154 will represent West Bank district councils (11 from each of 14 councils),66 for Gaza district councils, 320 active and retired Fatah members of the security services with the rank of Brigadier General or higher, about 250 senior government leaders, about 180 from civil society and the business community, and about 500 from refugee and diaspora populations abroad. An additional group of about 80 at-large Fatah cadres will be selected by the Preparatory Committee. ¶4. (C) According to Samarah and Maduni, the delegate selection process has created heated competition among West Bank leaders to assure their supporters are invited. At a late March meeting with Abu Mazen, West Bank local councilors threatened to organize a boycott unless all current and past councilors were invited to the conference, according to Samarah. Abu Mazen reportedly sought to include dozens of business leaders thought to be supporting of his leadership, but was effectively blocked by Abu Ala'a, according to Maduni. Dahlan has been an active engineering support for his FCC candidacy and, according to Presidential Assistant Thafer Noubani successfully lobbied Abu Mazen to compel the PA Attorney General to drop charges relating to smuggling cell phones against former PLC Speaker Rawhi Fattouh and FRC member in exchange for Fattouh's support at the Congress. Venue Fight -------------- ¶5. (C) Abu Mazen told the Consul General March 19 that he prefers to hold the event in Bethlehem's convention center, a venue widely supported by "grass roots" reformers in the West Bank. However, a West Bank venue will be viewed by many Palestinians abroad as accepting Israeli occupation. Palestinians recall a 2008 investment conference held in Bethlehem at which the Israeli Civil Administration erected large signs welcoming delegates, noted Adnan Samarah. Amos Gilad, Chief of the Diplomatic-Security Bureau at the GOI Defense Ministry, promised Israel will allow delegates from abroad to attend the Congress "without exception," according to Erekat, but many Palestinians remain skeptical that Israel will not seek to influence the event, according to Abu Ala'a. Travel of Gaza-based delegates will require the consent of Hamas, according to Abu Ala'a, though Fatah will seek Egyptian assistance to facilitate their travel. Delegates from Syria and Lebanon may also encounter problems returning from the West Bank. Some senior FCC members have told Abu Mazen that they will not attend a West Bank congress, according to Samarah and Maduni. As a result, some Preparatory Committee members have suggested staging three "mini Congresses", one each in Gaza, the West Bank, and abroad. Central Committee Membership: the Key to Fatah Power -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) The FCC remains the key governing body of the Fatah movement. Based on current party by-laws and discussions of PolSpec and PolOff with party insiders, delegates to the conference will elect 19 FCC members through a non-list voting system with all delegates exercising voting rights. The current membership generally represents the "Old Guard" anti-reform generation within the movement. According to Adnan Samarah, the Preparatory Committee is expected to grant FCC membership to Farouk Qadumi (Abu Lutf) and Abu Mazen (both current FCC members) without election in recognition of their status as "founding fathers" of the movement. Of the other 13 current FCC members, Salim Za'anoun, Sacher Habash, and Hani al Hassan have signaled their intention to step down. Abu Ala'a, Hakim Belawi, Mohamed Al Ghneim, and Abbas Zaki have initiated campaigns in support of their candidacies for the future FCC, according to Samarah, and all have well-entrenched supporters in key Fatah posts. Mohamed Jihad, Tayib Abdelrahim, Abdullah Faranji, Zacharia Al Agha, Nabil Shaath, and Nasser Yussef, according to Samarah, are believed to be candidates to retain their seats, but their popular support is limited. Intisar Al Wazir is said to have offered to stand aside in favor of her son, Palestinian Monetary Authority President Jihad Al Wazir, provided the current leadership supports his candidacy and offers some assurance of his election to the FCC, according to Samarah. Two additional "symbolic seats" will be filled by imprisoned Fatah leaders, with Marwan Barghouti and PLC member Jamal Ahwal or Salim Za'arini expected to gain widespread support. Abu Mazen's Supporters -------------- ¶7. (C) Abu Mazen is working to create an overwhelming bloc of support at the Congress, according to Akram Haniyeh, who told the Consul General in March that Abu Mazen sought to place as many as 1,300 supporters among the delegates. Among those expected to align their FCC candidacies with Abu Mazen are Dahlan, Fattouh, Haniyeh, PA head of Civil Affairs Hussein Al Sheikh, Ambassador to Egypt and FRC member Nabil Amr, Erekat, and possibly former FM Nasser Al Qidwa, according to Adnan Samarah. In general, this group represents a "middle generation," some reform-minded and some not. In addition, Presidential Chief of Staff Rafik Al Husseini has pushed hard for Abu Mazen's support. However, in the wake of a widely discussed compromising video of Husseini engaging in adultery, Abu Mazen has been hesitant to support his loyal associate, according to Mohamed Maduni. Abu Mazen has also discussed FCC candidacies with Civil Police Commander Hazem Attallah, Presidential Assistant for West Bank Security and FRC member Hajj Ismail Jabber, Head of Military Intelligence Majid Farraj, Marwan Abdelhamid, and Abbas Zaki. Attalah and Farraj enjoy the respect of PM Salam Fayyad for their work in PASF reform efforts. Hajj Ismail, Abdelhamid and Zaki are considered closer to the current FCC membership. Anti-Abu Mazen Bloc Taking Shape -------------- ¶8. (C) Though alliances shift almost daily, a bloc of anti-Abu Mazen senior leaders appears to be forming around the leadership of Farouk Qadumi and Abu Ala'a, according to Adnan Samarah and Mohamed Maduni. Among those expected to challenge Abu Mazen's primacy are current FCC members Qadumi, Abu Ala'a, and Mohamed Ghnaim, and FRC members Ahmad Abdelrahman, Jibril Rajoub, Othman Abu Gharbiyaeh, and Samarah. According to Samarah, this group has discussed the creation of a rival bloc to oppose Abu Mazen. Samarah explained that such a group would be joined by disaffected Fatah members, largely drawn from abroad, as well as former GI Chief Tawfiq al Tarawi, fired by Abu Mazen for allegedly taping phone calls between Abu Mazen and his sons. Abu Gharbiyaeh is considered a key to this effort by virtue of his role as head of the delegate selection committee for the Congress. "Independent Fatah" Leaders Gaining Prominence -------------- - ¶9. (C) At least two additional groups unaligned with the pro- or anti-Abu Mazen groups are emerging, according to Samarah and Maduni. Sari Nusseibeh, President of Al Quds University, has gained support among reformers as one potential FCC candidate, and Nusseibeh has ramped up subtle campaigning in recent weeks. Other reform-minded Fatah "independents" include prisoner rights advocate and West Bank grassroots supporter of Marwan Barghouti Qadura Faris, and Husam Khader, Bilata Refugee Camp grass roots organizer. Both have engaged in energetic campaigns that make them potential FCC rivals to the Old Guard, according to Samarah and Maduni. Similarly, Ibrahim Abu Najah, Fatah's most prominent official in Gaza, has gained significant credibility among grass roots leaders by virtue of his continued leadership of Gaza-based cadres, according to Samarah and Maduni. ¶10. (C) Ahmed Hillas, a Gaza-based rival to Dahlan and Mohamed Shtayya, Director of the Palestinian Economic Council for Development and Reconstruction have also increased political activity in advance of the Congress, according to Samarah and Maduni. While not considered reformers, these leaders represent a potential threat to Old Guard primacy and are expected to vigorously pursue FCC seats. WALLES