SARI NUSSEIBEH AND NASER AL QIDWA: TIME IS SHORT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 000260

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, AND NEA/IPA. NSC FOR SHAPIRO/PASCUAL.
JOINT STAFF FOR LTG SELVA.

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2019
TAGS: KPAL KWBG PGOV PREL PTER IS QA
SUBJECT: SARI NUSSEIBEH AND NASER AL QIDWA: TIME IS SHORT
TO ACHIEVE PEACE; EXTERNAL INTERVENTION NEED0ED

REF: JERUSALEM 201

Classified By: Classified by Consul General Jake Walles for reasons 1.4
(b,d)


1. (C) Summary. In separate meetings with the Consul
General, al Quds University President Sari Nusseibeh and
former PA Foreign Minister Naser al Qidwa emphasized that
time is short to achieve a two-state solution, and the risks
of further Palestinian disintegration are high. Both
dismissed the Roadmap as an incremental and slow tool, and
said the focus on training the PASF has not served PA
interests. They said USG intervention is crucial now.
Nusseibeh proposed that the USG present a peace deal that
"neither side could refuse" and move immediately to the
political end game. He also recommended that President
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) not engage in a national dialogue
or establish a unity government. Al Qidwa, on the other
hand, advocated a government of national unity that would
fall short of Quartet requirements.

Nusseibeh: USG Must Present a Peace Deal
and Move to the Political End Game Now
--------------


2. (C) Al Quds University President Sari Nusseibeh told the
Consul General February 3 that the moment is ripe for the USG
to propose a peace deal that "neither side can refuse." With
Binyamin Netanyahu (the presumptive new Israeli Prime
Minister) on one side and Abu Mazen on the other, a deal is
only possible if presented from the outside, he said.
Nusseibeh dismissed interim steps, including a settlement
freeze, early PA elections, the national reconciliation
process or Gaza reconstruction, and he urged moving
immediately to the political end game. Otherwise, "the whole
thing (the PA, Fatah, the PLO) could collapse." Without
Fatah, he added, "there will be no chance for a peaceful
resolution." He said the parameters of a peace deal are
broadly known and could be the plan he and Israeli MK Ami
Ayalon developed (the "Ayalon-Nusseibeh Plan").


3. (C) Nusseibeh said a peace deal must be ratified by each
side, but through different processes. Israel, he said, is
a "sufficiently mature democracy" and should use a
referendum. On the Palestinian side, he said, a referendum
would be divisive, and PA elections should be the vehicle to
approve a deal. He said elections before a deal would be a
"disaster," but Abu Mazen and Fatah should go into
Presidential and legislative elections campaigning on the
proposed deal as their political program. He said this
approach would require Abu Mazen to take risks, but he
predicted Abu Mazen would be re-elected as President and
Fatah would win a majority of PLC seats.

Nusseibeh: Abu Mazen has the Courage;
PM Fayyad is in the "Wrong Context"
--------------


4. (C) Nusseibeh said he believes Abu Mazen is courageous
enough and could withstand the criticism he would face from
supporting a US-proposed deal. He noted that Abu Mazen could
blunt some criticism by engaging Palestinians (including
refugees outside the West Bank and Gaza) and acknowledging
concessions that he may need to make for peace. Nusseibeh
pointed to Abu Mazen's courage in the 1990s in defense of the
Palestinian negotiators and more recently in criticizing the
rockets launched by Hamas into southern Israel.


5. (C) Asked by the Consul General about PM Fayyad's
political standing after Gaza, Nusseibeh said he is a
"perfect prime minister," but in the "wrong context" and can
never be a "national figure." Fayyad, he said, is perceived
as an "agent of the Americans." Nusseibeh criticized the USG
emphasis on security in the West Bank, which "doesn't go well
from the Palestinian point of view." He said the popular
impression is that the PASF do not serve Palestinian
interests.

Al Qidwa: External Factors Needed;
Palestinian Institutions Disintegrating
--------------


6. (C) Former PA FM Naser al Qidwa told the Consul General
February 5 that external impetus is required for Palestinians
to move out of the current crisis. He said: "on our own,
it's too late to do what needs to be done." He asked that
the USG: 1) oppose the separation of the West Bank and Gaza;
2) insist on implementation of the 2005 AMA to open the

JERUSALEM 00000260 002 OF 002


crossing; and 3) pressure the GOI on access and movement more
generally. At the political level, he urged the USG to
"press the time factor" and urge the GOI to stop all
settlement activity and define permanent status as a "two
state solution based on 1967 borders." Al Qidwa dismissed
the value of the Roadmap, saying, "no amount of discussion of
check points will impact GOI policy." He pressed for faster,
more dramatic progress, saying, "we don't have time," and
warning that otherwise "the Palestinian side will
disintegrate fully." The emphasis on building the PASF, he
said, will not succeed, because it was not based on a
national political vision and was seen as contrary to
Palestinian interests. "Even in Ramallah, people are
suspicious and see the PA security forces act like the IDF,"
he said.


7. (C) Al Qidwa said he is very concerned about Palestinian
institutions. "We have almost lost the PLO because of utter
stupidity," he said and asked why the PNC was not convened
after Hamas' take-over of Gaza. He said he does not expect
Fatah to hold the Sixth Party Congress any time soon, adding
that, if it does, there are no assurances that the new
leadership will be reform-oriented. He said there has been
no progress in Fatah reform in the three years since it lost
the PLC elections, noting that the regional elections over
the last eighteen months were conducted under different rules
and did not contribute to institution building. Fatah will
have a hard time campaigning on the basis of its program of a
negotiated settlement, which has so far failed, he concluded.


Al Qidwa: National Unity Government
--------------


8. (C) Al Qidwa said Palestinians need a national unity
government, but it should be a government with a clear
political program, not simply to prepare for elections.
(Note: Al Qidwa signed the recent call by prominent
Palestinians from across the political spectrum for a
national dialogue (reftel). End Note.) This government, he
said, must be a part of the international system to succeed,
but it cannot "realistically" meet Quartet conditions. He
said the government should meet minimum standards,
recognizing Israel and committing not to use violence against
civilians.


9. (C) Al Qidwa said he does not believe the Arab states can
help Palestinians resolve their internal problems, noting
that they have "been filling the vacuum already, but
unfortunately not always to our advantage." He described the
Arabs' involvement as inconsistent and haphazard and (echoing
most Palestinian leaders) said, "For God's sake, do something
about the Qataris!"


WALLES