PALESTINIAN PARLIAMENTARIAN MUSTAFA AL-BARGHUTI ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002334

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE AND IPA; NSC FOR SHAPIRO/KUMAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2024
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM KPAL KWBG IS
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN PARLIAMENTARIAN MUSTAFA AL-BARGHUTI ON
ELECTIONS, FATAH-HAMAS RECONCILIATION, AND NEGOTIATIONS

Classified By: CG Daniel Rubinstein, per reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Mustafa Barghuti, who was elected to the
Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in 2006 as the head of
the Independent Palestine list, believes that PLC and
presidential elections need to occur in the upcoming year in
order to preserve the Palestinian democratic experience and
stave off fundamentalism in the region. He admitted that
elections are unlikely to occur before Fatah and Hamas accept
a reconciliation agreement, which he speculated is unlikely
in the near term because the parties are focused on their own
interests. Barghuti said that President Abbas (Abu Mazen)
cannot return to negotiations if the Israelis continue
presenting only "bad options." Barghuti said he is not
considering running for president in future elections because
he is unlikely to win. End Summary.

BARGHUTI: ELECTIONS NEEDED FOR
PALESTINIAN, REGIONAL STABILITY
--------------


2. (C) Mustafa Barghuti, PLC member, head of the Union of
Palestinian Medical Relief Committees, and 2005 PA
presidential candidate, told PolChief on December 22 that
elections need to occur soon in the Palestinian territories
to bolster the Palestinian democratic experience and prevent
a return to corruption in the PA. He asserted that the 2006
PLC elections were a model for other Arab states to follow to
increased stability in the Middle East. Barghuti said he
hopes to see new elections in the next year, but that June
2010 is unrealistic because the parties require nine to
twelve months to prepare for elections. He also recognized
that the issue of intra-Palestinian reconciliation will delay
elections until Fatah and Hamas are both ready to move
forward.

HAMAS, FATAH FOCUSED INTERNALLY,
UNABLE TO RECONCILE AND MOVE FORWARD
--------------


3. (C) Barghuti said Palestinian reconciliation is currently
"on hold" because Fatah and Hamas are waiting for other
issues to play out and strengthen their respective positions.
Hamas, he said, is focused on negotiations over the exchange
of Israeli Corporal Gilad Shalit for roughly 1000
Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. Having served as a
mediator in the intra-Palestinian reconciliation talks,
Barghuti said he came to appreciate Hamas's ability to
deliver a unified message, in spite of heated debates among
Hamas officials while deciding policy. In spite of Hamas's
good PR, he said, the group has governed Gaza poorly and
cannot expect to win a majority in future elections.


4. (C) Barghuti, who is a distant relative of imprisoned FCC
member Marwan Barghuti, said Fatah's recently-elected leaders
are still dealing with their new positions, and trying to
find a way to get back to negotiations. He said the group is
unprepared for national elections, and needs to work with
other moderate Palestinian parties to combat Hamas's
extremist message. Fatah had staked its reputation on the
success of negotiations, Barghuti said, and needs to show the
Palestinians a workable formula for peace -- or else risk
losing popular support. Barghuti asked rhetorically whether
the international community would work with the Palestinians
on a reconciliation agreement, and encouraged the USG to
weigh the possible benefits before ruling this out.

NEGOTIATIONS REQUIRE SETTLEMENT
FREEZE; I WON'T RUN JUST TO RUN
--------------


5. (C) Barghuti said that Abu Mazen cannot return to
negotiations without a full settlement freeze, which would
indicate genuine Israeli commitment to the two-state
solution. He said Palestinians cannot move forward toward
peace if they "have only bad options" to choose from. When
asked about his own political prospects, Barghuti said he
probably will not run for president in future elections.
"The first time, I didn't expect to win, but I ran (for
president) to position a new movement. And I was successful.
I would only run a second time if I expected to win -- which
I don't -- so I don't think it's worth running."

RUBINSTEIN